Current Public Sentiment towards the Housing Market

property-market-sentiment

#21

I think the Q3 report has caused a change in sentiment already. As Xmas approaches many will think that they will have to get out before the Q4 report comes out. The next PTSB/ERSI is likely to show another major decrease in the rate of increases. The VI’s will have to work overtime in the next few months to keep the illusion going… :wink:
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#22

Except we all know the Q4 report (out in Feb?) won’t do any such thing. They’ll spin it furiously, and all the meeja will seize on whatever crumbs they can, like “prices up 2% during 2006, the soft landing is here!” or even “prices rise 5% over last 2 years” (if Q4 falls are enough to make 2006 yoy negative) - *anything *to avoid reporting the reality that Q4 2006 showed prices falling.


#23

Yes, and unfortunately some media probably won’t report the Q4 report on falling prices at all unless they put spin on it like pick one area where prices have stalled and ignore about 300 other areas in falling prices :slight_smile:

Just look at Q3 report in media on stalled prices, it wasn’t reported on any national media outlets afaik, it was a struggle to find any mention of it in the print media.

However, any predictions from the VI’s are always reported as main news stories, talk about agenda. :angry:


#24

The December interest rate rise will be a another nail in the coffin which will come through in mortgage payments in January. IMO christmas and Jan sales will be very good as SSIA money gets spent.

Expect to see things getting tougher in the economy in March and April just as spring selling season comes. If ECB goes again in Q1 then confidence will really start to seep away.

There was a report over the weekend of increasing bad debts relating to subcontractors in the construction industry.


#25

Hi Folks

Holy God , looking at the papers yesterday . particularly the Sunday Business Post - you could be forgiven that it was “National Bear Day”

Never have I seen so much negative sentiment towards the property market and the economy in general in one paper - check it out.

Also I caught an interview on RTE1 around midday with George Lee Talking to Dr Michael Smurfit about his life etc etc - think it was called “one to one”
Asked what he thought was the biggest economic threat that concerned him about Ireland - he said property was way overvalued and the debt being taken on by people who could barely afford it.

So now we have the SBP, Mcwilliams , The ESRI, ECB, The EU Commission The IMF , Michael Smurfit, Dermot Desmond, JP McManus , The Economist Magazine saying that property here is considerably overvalued -

but of course they are wrong because Austin , Dan and the industry say so

Welcome to the Twilight Zone - or maybe the Matrix is real so none of this really matters a damn anyway!

EDO


#26

Another VI story stroked from breakingnews.ie/business/?jp=CWIDEYSNEYMH

Despite yields at record low, confidence is still there :unamused:

snip
Confidence is high in the buy-to-let market according to the latest property survey.

The EBS/Gunne poll of property investors shows over a third saw their rental income increase in the last year.

Many are now considering buying another property, according to the survey.

The upbeat report comes despite a warning from the Central Bank last week that it now costs €5,000 more per year to meet repayments on the average mortgage than it is possible to earn in rent.
snip


#27

Beat me too it… there is another one here (same story) rte.ie/business/2006/1113/property.html?rss

Hadn’t heard that the CB had spelled out the €5,000 more per year etc. etc. and I seek out such news, I wonder if many of the public heard it?


#28

I wonder how many investors are genuinely considering buying. If you look at overseas markets with heavy Irish representation, you’ll notice that once prices top the market grinds to a halt i.e. Spain, Hungary, Florida, Bulgaria (heading that way) Even UK new build apartments are seeing price falls though yields are better than in the Irish market.

I think a lot of Irish people are getting a little bit more suspect about the easy money is in property mantra.


#29

The last sentence from that RTE article. Buy- to- pet ? I suppose it saves on wear and tear from tenants :smiley:


#30

I see it was the EBS’s turn to come out and bat for the VI’s this morning and what a load of sh*t they came out with

" A new survey shows that 43% of people who are investors in the buy-to-let market plan to purchase another property in the next year. The survey was commissioned by EBS and Gunne Residential."

There was more but I wouldn’t bore you with it as it’s not directed for the folk on these threads, however what I will say is that I know quite of few people who I would consider educated and allegedly clued in and the penny still hasn’t dropped about the property pyramid not unless they are in the process of unloading and then they might change their tune. Dr Gobbles would be very proud of the Irish VI’s in this era of so much available information


#31

How it might have read if we were not in the grip of the VI Overlords…

Flat rents a burden for majority investors

November 13, 2006 10:47
A new survey shows that the majority of people who are investors in the buy-to-let market do not plan to purchase another property in the next year. The survey was commissioned by EBS and Gunne Residential.

Two thirds of those surveyed said they were not getting a better return on their investments as their rental income had not increased in the past year.

Of those planning to buy another property in the next year, only a fifth said they would use their SSIA to fund the deposit, while 57% would borrow against another property.

71% of investors said they were buying property to provide a pension, while 51% said it was to build up a nest egg for their children. Inventors continue to quit Dublin, with less than half having their investment property in the city, compared with more last year.


#32

Indeed StoppedClock, it’s not so much a case of reading between the lines these days as reversing them entirely! :open_mouth:

EDIT: I wonder where they got their sample of 200 investors anyhoo?


#33

I wonder how many investors are genuinely considering buying. If you look at overseas markets with heavy Irish representation, you’ll notice that once prices top the market grinds to a halt i.e. Spain, Hungary, Florida, Bulgaria (heading that way) Even UK new build apartments are seeing price falls though yields are better than in the Irish market. /quote]

There was a report in the FT last week regarding higher levels of repossessions among buy to let investors in the UK than homeowners. Something like half of repossessions are from buy to letters despite them representing far less than homeowners.

IMO the media have turned in terms of sentiment.


#34

EBS must really be worried to produce crap like that. If I was a member I would be p*ssed off at them having wasted money on comissioning a survey like that. Everyone knows that the smart money is bolting for the exit door. Hopefully Shane Ross takes his pen out for this one, he seems to have a beef with them.


#35

So one third saw rents increase…at a time when interest rates jumped…so how many of that third actually had the rent increase outstrip the increased mortgage?

Is it not highly likely that about 90% saw yields fall, even those who squeezed out higher rents?


#36

I’d say the VI’s have a few stock positive stories they can release ‘off the shelf’ and this is one.


#37

finfacts.com/irelandbusiness … 8034.shtml

fools born every day.


#38

You are incorrect about this. Asking prices fell earlier in the summer and then rose from september through october. They reported that prices were static from quarter to quaret but if you look at the monthly figures, it paints a different picture


#39

Posting from Whizzbang on the difference between Q2 Daft Report snapshot and Q3. Red is prices going down, 1 - 5 is the number of bedrooms.

boards.ie/vbulletin/showpost … count=1135


#40

I welcome the fact that 43 pc of the buy to let brigade intend to invest in more Irish residential properties in 2007, as the lower paid workers who cant afford a home need a wealthy landlord to subsidise the house they are to live in. It will be like an equal redistribution on the wealth