I reckon it’ll turn out alright in the end; the euro will still be here in two years, with more countries in it than there are now. Credit Anstalt, the Great Depression, Bobo the Clown and other comparisons notwithstanding
Funny how these institutions are inevitable and immutable, until they are no more… Based on past history we could easily still have the current euro configuration in ten years time. And be still stuck in euro perma-crisis with large swathes of the eurozone looking like post unification east Germany. But without the Solidarity tax transfers. These utterly dysfunctional political configurations can persist for decades. Latin America went through many decades of this kind of stuff. But the rise of people like Grillo tell me that the fracture will probably come sooner rather than later. Either way it will be very interesting to see what comes next.
So still far from over, no matter what Barroso may say. I dont expect bank runs, that time has passed. But lots of other rakes strewn across the path.
same here I think euro will survive, personally think its a little isolated experiment to see how the other piigs Depositors react …
What will be of interest to me is the reaction of deposit holders in the rest of the PIIGs… that is more important at this stage…
Will they withdraw on mass or just ignore…i personally think it will be ignored and it will be business as usual…
If that is the case then IMHO further taxes on deposits will be introduced across any countries looking for bailouts in the future…
Add:What is interesting for me is all gaps are closed on the futures indices (Es etc) im watching but not on the currency side of things…In other words this Current short term strength in indices is not reflected in the currencies…Needs to change or we will go lower from here…time will tell
QE is a tax on savers,ZIRP or even negative rates are wiping out savers and pensioners and most peoples pension funds. All to bail out criminals who should be hanging off the nearest branch.
QE and ZIRP are only related in the minds of economists, seeing one as an extension of the other. The evidence appears to suggest that QE exists outside interest rates and inflation and that it and QT (quantative tightening) should be used as additional tools instead of interest rates, not as extensions to them.
At least, that’s what Sidewinder and I have been arguing for some time. Shame no-one has taken it up, but there you go.
Looks like we might have a weeks bank holiday
A pity our opposition politicians couldn’t have shown a bit more descent the night of our infamous guarantee .
It’s the ELG that’s being discontinued, no? That’s the one that covers deposits in excess of €100k. The DGS, which guarantees amounts up to €100k (although seemingly only if the sovereign actually has the money), continues to be in force. Each EU country is obliged to have a DGS in place.
Would it have made a difference if there was still a government majority to push it through? The president in Cyprus doesn’t have a majority in parliament so no whip system to push it through.
Yes, post 28 March 2013. Although personal term deposits, of up to 5 years in length, placed before 28 March, will be covered for the length of the term by the ELG. Hence, it is really been phased out over the 5 year period or be it with ELG liabilities significantly decreasing on 28 March 2013.
Yes and the CBI has depleted its deposit insurance fund considerably thanks to the IBRC depositor compensation payments.