Daft.ie Q1 2010 - Asking prices fall by 3.4%

Surely house prices reach a minimum at the top of the interest rate cycle,
as that is when mortgage repayments are at their highest,
so demand is lowest when interest payments are at their highest.

Likewise, house prices reach a maximum whe interest rates are at their lowest, because at that point, mortgage repayments are at their lowest,
so demand is highest when interest payments are at their lowest.

or can someone explain the relationship between interest payments and demand - is it not a downward sloping demand curve, with interest payments as a proxy for price?

I have to say I simply don’t see it myself, I have been looking at a no. Properties on daft for the last 2-3 years and most of them have not reduced their asking price at all. I mean if I was looking to put in an offer now I would be looking for 200k off a 600k asking on these houses.To me the Market is all over the shop, anybody else experiencing this ?

Yes, but is there any chance we can stop the “houses will be free” next year crap. Lost of people are still in good jobs, taking home 6 figure salaries with 6 figure deposits.

To these people 600k next to the rights schools is cheap, particularly when they know others are paying more in the UK and elsewhere with a lower (relative) quality of life, expensive schools and less craic (it is all about the craic).

Yes, Longford is worth 50p but that was always the case. As for the rest of the country the market says otherwise.

Lots? Steady on.

Quantify “lots” would you? Cos most of the people I know are on 5 figures salaries, do not have huge deposits and are in fear of their jobs.

And if there are lots of these 6 figure salaries floating around, I’d like one. That’s not a “good” salary, that’s a great salary.

Don’t know how much “lots” is but I do think people on here seem to underestimate just how much money people in Dublin are still earning and how many are still getting pay increases

Maybe you’d like to estimate it for us?

OK, lots of Dublin “couples” and quite a few individuals. Not all of who bought in the boom or who are ready to move again.

You would think the country is on its uppers. As someone not living in Ireland I was really surprised with the “on the ground” experience of Dublin. I talked the country down and got out. I now think that the pendulum is swinging too far the wrong way.

Hey ho, I will lay my chips down and take my chances. We can’t be keyboard warriors forever!

Well, ok, but here’s a Payscale survey saying the median Dublin salary in March 2010 is below €40,000:

payscale.com/research/IE/Cou … ry/by_City

Whatever the actual number I would doubt very strongly that those on €100k+ make any meaningful difference to the market. Relatively speaking they are in the market for only a tiny handful of properties.

Looking at the revenue breakdown for 2006 (still the most recent available) there were 82,718 incomes being taxed 100k or above out of a workforce of 2,208,100 taxable incomes. So 3.75% of earners.

Are we supposed to believe this number has gone up? In addition this income bracket is the most heavily taxed so after tax income would have taken the largest hit.

And that, I believe, is figures for taxable units, so in some cases it includes husband and wife (where they are jointly assessed). In which case the number of individual earners earning more than 100k is lower.

There you go, ruining a perfectly good theory with indisputable facts.

I hope you’re proud of yourself.

Yep it’s single + married (one earning) + married (both earning) + widowers. It’s the absolute maximum figure for what could be said to be some sort of 6 figure earning household.

I don’t think I’ll go building any luxury apartments for that demographic just yet.

Aha! Now I know you are not Sean Dunne… one down, four and a half million to go…

Indeed it is.

I’m sure every county can throw up some strange cases, but Wicklow has completely lost the plot.

Here’s a comparison.

Exhibit A. A rural 2 bed on a good site for 95k. This property is on the open market to anyone who wants it. Sure, it needs another 100k to make it nice, but it has eh, …potential.

Exhibit B. A ‘site’ being sold subject to planning for 90k across the road from Exhibit A. This ‘site’ would only be suitable for someone who had an eligibility for planning, and as such is not on the open market. How in the name of God can this bit of land be worth more than it’s agricultural value when the demand for it is almost completely non-existant? Wicklow landowners are going to discover that restrictive planning regulations are a knife that cuts both ways.

So, Median Salary in Dub is nearly 40k - 2 professional people = 80k = mortgage of 400k.
There are a lot of these people I reckon. I know a lot of people like this (not me unfortunately… yet).
Only thing is they probably already own a property, like most of my friends.

I’d love to see a breakdown of the income of current FTBs in Dublin

Aye, but you’d need to buy next door too, or else donate them some paint to make it look better :laughing:

Where are you getting 4x joint income as a guideline from?

A married individual on 40k takes home €2,813 a month. A 360k mortgage for 30 years at 4% (pretty optimistic) requires €1700 a month. That’s 60% of one of their incomes just to keep a roof over their head - when is this couple supposed to have children?

Interest rates at 7% would occupy almost 100% of one of their incomes.

Are we not due a Daft rental report? We got figures for the increase in January by Feb 16, yet it’s now April 8 and no sign of a February figure or beyond.

It says in the report the rental one won’t be out till May.

It’s a very odd situation - the 2009 Q4 report contains the highly publicised “January increase!” figure and then the next one gets delayed.