Daft rentals still rocketing

I hadn’t looked at Daftwatch in a while. I was taken aback by the exponential trend in rental listing over the last couple of months. Rents are going to come unde some serious downward pressure in the near future.

All is as I expected so far. But it will be interesting to watch for evidence that rents begin to respond.

Its not just the supply. Void periods tend to increase as the rental inventory rises, impacting net yields.

Seems to almost moving in real time now. :open_mouth:

when is the next Daft rental report due does anyone know?

Of course, the Daftwatch figues aren’t supply. They are (currently) unused suppy - analagous to unemployment in the labour market. To carry the comparison further, the rise recorded on Daftwatch is equivalent to the unemployment rate going from the current 4.8% to nearly 6.5% in a matter of months, sorry, weeks (a 33% increase).

So all those savvy investors heard from the ‘experts’ that the rental market was booming & thought hmmm, maybe renting will keep the wolf from the door…

Because as we all know, nothing is better for driving up rents than thousands of desperate, sorry, savvy investors dropping their properties onto an already saturated market ! :confused:

It is interesting that we have more than 12 months on rental data on daftwatch. It’s easy to compare last years trends with this years.

is there a regional break down?
i cant imagine “desperate developers” putting their shoeboxs in commuterland up for rent would have any impact on rents in a well located area.
this is why i would like to see a break down of stats if available.

Appears pretty uniform. Dublin, Wexford, Waterford, Galway, Cork. Limerick not so much, but it is the outlier.

whats the “outlier”?
ok , but is there a breakdown within dublin say - im sure those figures could be generated no problem ( to one who knows what they are doing ).

Does anyone know how to upload an image on this thing?

Well for my purposes I opened up the Daft for sale property graph and drew a line along the sales increase(until it fell of in Sept.) If the rate of Sales had “kept up” we would be looking at around 59,000 houses for sale. Taking into account that 2,000 gave up and went for rent since Sept. The actual number of sales is still 3,000 short of what it should be.

So therefore I think the debate should be around, where did these 3,000 fo sales go/not materialise? but more importantly, how long will this trend continue.

Are you Matt Cooper??!?! :open_mouth:

Just kidding - Cooper asked Dr. Dan the same question last night.

Graph your results - draw the average line between most of them - watch for the one that sits out there on it’s own - that’s the outlier.

Lies outside the average.

All in laymans terms of course - don’t want any statto’s picking on me!

Say what?

I don’t believe you would need to go to such a micro level. County Dublin should be a small enough geographical region to capture the effects of substitution (i.e. a rental in Tallaght is in competition with a rental in Swords, say)

Brianmac already told us the other day. It’s all being done on the quiet, he’s actively advising vendors that he will take their business, but he won’t be bothering trying to actually sell it till Feb/Mar.

So the houses are still “for sale”, as in the owners are looking to get rid of them, but they don’t show up officially anywhere.

Another little scam, brought to you by Ahern’s Kleptocracy.

That’s harsh - everybody is entitled to sell their house in whatever way best serves their purpose. If I wanted to advertise in the Vladivostok Gazette, I’d be perfectly entitled to do so.

Having said that, I don’t see a white knight spring selling season coming to their rescue.

I appreciate brianmac’s contributions here and take him at face value, but he’s dealing in a market which isn’t down here with the little people. Many of his buyers might not even need mortgages!!!

The damage is being done where a young couple stretching to buy have had €10k swiped off their max price by a 1/4-point interest rate rise… again and again and again.

And that was before the credit crunch…

I can only speak for a limited set of data. But I’ve been watching 2 bed apartments in Dublin 4 (a good area I think you’ll agree). I’ve already rented and I’m happy with the rent I’m paying. But I’ve continued to watch.

The number of apartments for rent is creeping up steadily, but nothing dramatic. Up from about 170 to about 185 roughly.

The number asked less than 1600 or less than 1700 is increasing more quickly.

That suggests that prices are dropping slightly faster than supply is increasing.

But Prices certainly don’t seem to be increasing, and I didn’t find any shortage of choices when I went looking.

I did find a shortage of high quality apartments with lots of space, but I managed to find one at a reasonable price, so the shortage can’t be too accute.

-Rd

Anyone know why the rental graph at daftwatch.atspace.com/ has got much “smoother” recently. Is the figure being updated less often?

Regardless, it sure is shooting up since Jan 1. :smiley:

Seasonal.
Fewer people put properties to rent over the xmas season.
Look at the graph for the same time last year (it dipped !).

It might be something to do with the activity on Daft.
It might be something to do with the way the site puts the data up.
It might be an artifact of the data (a rush of properties coming on after being held over Xmas could lead signal to swamp the usual noise.)

maybe people take christmas off as a holiday and don’t want to be showing people around an apartment or (for that matter) going around looking at apartments.