Daft Report Q2 2009

Full report here (pdf reader required)

daft.ie/report/Daft-House-Pr … 2-2009.pdf

https://susty.com/image/species-spotlight-grizzly-bear-brown-mouth-open-black-nose-attacking-growling-biting-photo-468x351.jpg

Fair play to Ronan, heard his interview on Newstalk this morning, it was quite honest and balanced.
Its good that he also brought up the point about the amount of time it takes to sell a property and the regional divergence in this area. It backs up what I was saying last month or so, that saying that house prices haven’t fallen much is no comfort if to vendors if the time it takes to sell has soared.
Ronan spelt it out in simple terms, house prices have fallen the most in Dublin AND it now experiences the SHORTEST time to sell a property. If only the penny would drop for those down in Waterford XX

Irish property vendors discover that lower prices increases quantity demanded shocker.

After the boom getting boomier we are now in the drops getting dropier.

I spend a lot of time checking out the property drops here. My cheeky offer name allued to my view that the €1m home could be got for €700k (last year).

Reality is not that any sale is better than none. Executor sale reality setting the benchmarks.

Interesting times. Market has been supported by those on the sidelines - once they dry up we are back to a €500k for a 3/4 bed in South Dublin.

:confused:

Ironically as house sales increase, we can expect those buyers to move out of rented accommodation putting further pressure on rents, and reducing the rental yield on properties thus further pushing down prices.

Don’t quite get your logic there IID - lack of house sales has been causing prices to fall and now you feel house sales will cause prices to fall further.

daft.ie/maps/index.daft
I had a quick look at the daft maps and I got these figures:

[code] County Properties

  • Carlow - 1200
  • Kildare - 2035
  • Kilkenny - 1362
  • Laois - 1397
  • Longford - 1145
  • Louth - 1722
  • Meath - 1982
  • Offaly - 1641
  • Westmeath - 1643
  • Wexford - 3559
  • Wicklow - 1723
    ==============================
  • Total - 19409[/code]

I reckon the difference between 19,409 and 17,000 could be from one or many or these:

  • multiple entries from the same property
  • daft not including sites or other property types
  • a jump since daft took it’s figures

What about the multiple properties for one listing? Maybe not so much of an issue anymore but there is bound to be a sprinkling still, especially in commuterland.

I believe Ronan once advised they cleaned the data to account for these phenomena and we should respect their methodology but I don’t believe it was ever fully divulged.

I reckon that even with any filtering they do, it can’t be easy to perfectly remove every duplicate and that it still could be a factor. Of course it could be just a small one if they do good filtering.

No you misunderstand.

I mean like this -> 14 units, one listing, The Grange - Ballyboughal

Ah, gotcha.

We’d probably need to see their code or pseudocode for how they generate their stats to get a feel for how well they handle multiple in various scenarios.

Even with that though, we’d really need to see a full itemised output of every property their stats generator includes and excludes. On top of that, you’d need someone to do a full audit of such an output and cross check it against the raw daft database. Ouch, that reads like a ton of work.

In a falling market increased transaction accelerate not decelerate the price drops.

not as simple as that - depends where they are renting, where they are buying, are they buying an ex-rental home, how many people were renting same property before and how many are buying new property

i think a floor will be reached in Dublin and places near where jobs are long before rest of the country - in some cases there may be no floor and no buyer at any price for a property in middle of nowhere with nothing around it jobswise, schools wise etc

If only! Some chinks in the armour though. Viewed a house on at €225k on Monday (competitively priced). Offered €180k. Told to eff off. So sod them. Viewed another one today - on at €200k (similar ones in same estate on at €299k - would have been around €320k peak). Offered €170k. Seemed interested. Will let you know how it goes.

We’re not gone on a viewing spree. These were very realistically priced - compared to the ongoing denial down here.

Speaking of the south east, prices seem incredibly sticky here in Kilkenny too, although I did hear a rumour about 3 units in the almost completely empty but quite large Glenbawn estate being sold to 1 person for €300k in the last few days. The place is mixed between semi-d’s and duplexes, I’d imagine €300k for 3 of the poxy duplexes might be feasible by now!

I notice he neglected to put a time scale on his predictions, maybe his entrails were off? :unamused:

Anyone else a little annoyed that any media coverage of the Daft report referred to the price falls to date and predicted further price falls as an a priori bad thing?

As if the price falls reflected further deterioration of the general economy rather than the road to recovery?