DAFT Report Q3 2010

Eh, the 'pin is the latest from the property market Ronan! That’s why you’re here, you could also have responded to the question earlier regarding ACHIEVED sales prices by acknowledging that DAFT has no access to such figures and doesn’t hold any information in this regard.

Long term economic value? You didn’t, did you? :open_mouth:

How does one answer “Have you stopped beating your wife yet?”?! Daft never claim to have actual achieved prices. We do know when properties are marked as sale agreed and subsequently taken off, and we count these as sales, but we don’t know what their price is. TUG, I’m pretty sure we’ve been here a million times before - no exaggeration! - I’m not sure which question you’re referring to, but I did say to someone who asked above that we can’t wait for full sales price information to be made publicly available, as we’d be best placed to analyse that too!

I did mention it alright - trying to explain that “long-term economic value” really comes down to getting a good yield on property and then when rents stabilise, that will give the sales market some indication of what the “long-term economic value” of a property is.

And even that is going too far.

That was the question.

I don’t agree you’re in a good place to analyse anything at all but it’s a game of opinion and as a professional Economist yourself, I’m sure you can appreciate that. :angry:

That’s your opinion and you’re certainly entitled to it. At the bottom of every press release, we state how we calculate our figures about what has sold or not, in the notes to the editors, so they can decide for themselves whether they believe us. There really is little more that we can do!

Have another read… I answered it straight away!

Because DAFT (or MyHome) don’t actually monitor it and don’t have the figures to hand…

What does “under the radar” in this context mean? This business of looking at asking prices and trying to extrapolate meaning from them is worse than reading tea leaves…

Spin, spin, spin…

For feck’s safe TUG, you can’t have it every which way you like it. One minute you’re giving out to me for not having an answer to a question I already answered, in which I answered that asking prices cannot capture changes in selling prices, because they’re only asking prices. And the next you’re admonishing me using the exact same point I had made originally.

Measuring 30,000 asking prices posted between July 1 and September 30 in an econometrically sound way and making the results public is not spin. I’m not sure what you think the daft report is spinning anyway. First off, daft are a media company, not a property company, and therefore happy as long as people go online to look at places to live, be it sharing, renting or buying. That doesn’t change just because prices go up or down.

Secondly, they don’t put any pressure on me whatsoever to deliver any particular results and therefore really you have to look at my incentives, not the company’s. I get paid for doing the report well, and thus my primary incentive is to make sure there are no mistakes in what I do.

I’m happy to discuss - as I have with mikewest, namawinelake, Coles2 and others above and on many occasions on the pin and elsewhere before - the finer points of the report, so people have confidence in what is published. But there’s no point trying to look for a conspiracy in the daft report because there just isn’t one.

Game. Set. And Match.

Arf arf - I’ll take that as a concession of guilt.

What is his motive to spin?

must say i’ve never seen an ounce of spin in anything i have ever read written by RL - and have watched out for it as a test of how good people can say particular (vested) bad things when wage depends on it (e.g. bank, EA ‘economists’ etc), so far he has passed pretty well by my count.

It will be interesting, if we get historical price data as well as new sales, to reanalyse properties that were withdrawn having been sale agreed and:

  1. See if they did actually sell
  2. See what the gap between final asking price and sales price was

I suspect we won’t get historical data :smiley:

It would take one to know one in this instance mate… :stuck_out_tongue:

Actually I’m trying very hard to make progress on this point - not least (it always comes back to incentives) because there’d be a very good academic paper [putting my Oxford University hat on for a second] in doing this.
Which is probably as good a time as any to canvas any suggestions out there for things worth looking into. The two suggestions above are very good, and tracking (2) from 2005/2006 on would be really interesting.
No. (3) might be comparing how price-on-application properties did with ones that had an asking price.

Is it absurd to think that someday a 1000/month might be enough for a small family to purchase a home in Dublin that is not a two room shithole?

Indeed, the variation over the course of the cycle would be interesting - how much over asking (if at all) was paid at the peak and how much under as the market declined.

Of other interest to me would be:

  • the ability to band areas by price/sq m. and look at declines in that metric for those areas
  • getting land prices by working out plot sizes and subtracting house rebuild cost
  • doer-upper increment vs. market rise (Sarah Beanie’s point that many people end up adding next to no value in their modifications

All of which are doable in the current system to some degree, but not to any degree of accuracy.

Go get 'em TUG. Hey, I heard that 911 was a black flag op executed by the Israelis to justify wars against the Muslim world. What think you?

That’s more OW’s territory…

Have another read… I answered it straight away!

I don’t think you have answered the question I asked Ronan. You answered another related but unasked question.

The information I would very much like to see is the average asking price (as listed on Daft.ie) of those properties which have gone sale agreed. Now I know this is in no way a reflection of the actual sale prices but it would give those of us who have an interest in such things an idea of the actual “marketable price” for houses not an average which includes cloud 9 asking prices.

Lots of video!

Now with graphs!

irishdebate.com/2010/10/07/trend … nan-lyons/

I don’t think you have answered the question I asked Ronan. You answered another related but unasked question.

The information I would very much like to see is the average asking price (as listed on Daft.ie) of those properties which have gone sale agreed. Now I know this is in no way a reflection of the actual sale prices but it would give those of us who have an interest in such things an idea of the actual “marketable price” for houses not an average which includes cloud 9 asking prices.

He did answer the question, he said he hasn’t done that analysis.
The answer to the first question was no.
The answer to the second question was there don’t know.