Daft report Q4 2008:Ireland's Property Market: A Fallen Star

Full report here

daft.ie/report/Daft-House-Pr … 4-2008.pdf
(PDF reader required)

So we still have a long, long way to go and the % drops are escalating.

So much for the EA claims of 30% drops and having reached the bottom :laughing:

Mind you the December prices increased by 0.1% - massive XX

I can imagine the headline in the Irish Times Property section.

“Property Prices Rising Again - Never Been a Better Time to Buy!”

rte.ie/business/2009/morning … 114ncb.pdf

NCB reckon the PTSB/ESRI index will catch up by the end of the year and show a 30% drop, however this is based on an increase in transactions so I won’t hold my breath. While there will be capitulation there are still many who will hold on.

How many properties go into the PTSB/ESRI index.

PTSB used to have about 18% market share of mortgage market.
Currently approx €100mn of new mortgages each month.

So say PTSB has €20mn a month.
Remove the outliers (they do this to ensure the results are not skewed :angry: )

Their index is based on maybe €15mn worth of properties each month, say 60 properties.

Does anyone think this is a meaningful sample size?
This index used to have very little credibility, now it has none.

ESRI should remove their name from it.

I’m sorry but I don’t believe these figures. I do believe that these are accurate extrapolations from the data on the Daft site but as I know of houses listing on daft for multiple amounts from different EA’s and the fact that asking prices are widely agreed to bear no relationship to current selling prices this report is as accurate as Old Moores Almanac’s weather forecast. I feel the same about the IAVI’s report out today also and shame on the media for reporting these two reports as fact.

In fairness to Daft, they do point this out in the report on Page 5 - Asking Price Index:

And yet, I don’t seem to remember any Daft economist mentioning that at the time!!! :nin

At the time Daft were in the habit of asking shills like Pat and Austin to present their reports , then they hired Ronan inhouse in 2007 or possibly 2008 and got rid of the industry shills.

RIGHT at the very top of the insanity in early 2006 they got Austin Hughes no less to do the honours

An interesting exercise for an inhouse economist would be to guage the disconnect between asking and selling prices nationally .

In Galway the clearing price is typically 25% less than the asking , for example .

I’d imagine in South Dublin it would be somewhere between 10 and 15%.