Daftwatch watch

50k tomorrow or monday . Quiet time of year so it is.

daftwatch.atspace.com/

Yep, inventory levels have been “testing” the 50k level for some time now and a break through now looks imminent.
If the recent volatility is discarded, the graph is still a straight line upwards.
The graph for Dublin took a sudden upswing recently and I wonder was this due to new developments coming on stream.

Look at rental they have stagnated for some time now. When will we see a massive swing of inventory back to the rental? Pre or Post christmas?

The wise thing would be pre christmas but I reckon many will try one final roll of the dice to get in on teh much sought after autum market sure thing bounce :wink:

I can’t say I’m seeing the results of that in Dublin.

It looks like it will hit it this afternoon

50013

ok, who had 15th August?

edit
hats off to dreaded_estate
thepropertypin.com/forum/vie … 7553#17553

:slight_smile:

Can we expect to see in 2008 that the number of houses for sale is greater than the planned number of houses to be built in 2008?
Ah yeah, the fundamentals in Ireland are all pointing to a STABLE housing market all right :smiley:

I’m predicting that Bertie, seeing the writing on the wall for the property markt, will allow local authorities borrow vast sums of cash, use this cash to buy ‘surplus’ houses from the built up inventory, He will then claim that he is providing much needed affordable houses for FTBs while at the same time maintaining a stable property market.
As for value for money for the taxpayer to keep a bubble propted up- well when has that ever been a problem for our government.
The excuse I predict will be - the growth in the housing waiting list is to much for Bertie to bear- he’s having sleepless nights about those poor folk!
Bertie, you’re my hero :slight_smile:
I feel sorry for the Credit Unions of Ireland, surely their savings are dwindling in competition versus Rabo & Northern Rock, while their outstanding loans are growing!

A very good point. I would love to know what kind of risk the credit unions have undertaken. At the same time though, I’m not sure how big the credit union is?

Anyone have any insight on what’s going on in the credit union?

Well I know for a fact that the Garda credit unions sent out their members (last year I think - even possibly late 2005) a questionnaire about things which included should they offer mortgages and would members be interested in this etc. Imagine credit unions country wide getting in on the act and giving out mortgages. They wanted a piece of the action and it gives an insight into how some of these financial instutions view things!!
Thank God the bubble didnt continue any further than it did . . . . . . bad enough as it is!

Twelve credit unions had a 7 million euro exposure to the German bank IKB that had to be bailed out recently and lost 25 million euro after Davy stockbrokers advised them to invest in open-ended perpetual bonds issued by IKB and other European banks.

Now this might sound like small beer in comparison to the 7.3 billion of credit union surplus funds but the Financial Regulator has ordered a special audit of credit unions to ensure the losses are fully reflected in credit unions’ accounts and this could hit the dividends paid on members’ savings.

The worrying thing here is that there could well be further exposure that we are as yet unaware of.

**Ireland_is_different wrote:
**

Looks as if not every thing is rosy in the garden here either.

Any news on Rabo?

Hope they are not exposed as NR are!!

Are deposits with Rabobank Ireland Plc? I found one bond for this entity and it’s rated:

RATINGS
Moody’s Aaa
S&P AAA
Fitch AA+

So safe as houses then. Sorry, bad choice of phrase there.

Sure we’re practically there already for 2007!

I’m still holding to my prediction of 54-58K units built this year. And it increasingly looks like I’ll be right! 3 months ago everyone said I was insane for even thinking such a thing. Ah well.

Anyways. Didn’t someone calculate that the actual natural level of housing demand is around 40K mark? So right now, we have

a) nearly as many houses for sale as we will build in the entire year
b) A full year and a quarter worth of inventory for sale

:open_mouth: :open_mouth:

Eh, but, sure ye know yerself, soft landing lads, in’t de boom getting boomer like.

Its predicted ffor daft ALONE for November 2007 not in 2008 .

The prediction is here and is called 2packs razor

I have been trending between 60 and 65 k for completions this year though, not below 60k

Jaysus, :open_mouth: there has been no let up in the trend since mid September last year (Except for the Christmas holidays). It looks like we are well on to hit 52,000 by about September 01, 2007.
This is likely to spike even higher over the autumn/winter, if the people on top of the property ponzi scheme (the hedge funds) are having to unwind due to margin calls (they need cash) then surely this will trickle down and local “investors” may be forced to sell to make up the difference on CFD’s (contracts for difference) elsewhere. With the unemployment situation turning negative, we are also likely to have even more forced sellers.

I just noticed this on Daft

daft.ie/news/2007/daft_report_Q2_2007.daft

Which puts the total count nearly 60% higher than our best reckoning.

I assume they have the most reliable data re. multiple listings and multi-unit listings and should be more accurate. If this is the case it is much worse/better than we thought.

50959 daft.ie/searchsale.daft?s%5B … 1&x=12&y=5
It’s been going up at some pace today. should be 51k tomorrow