Dan McLaughlin - dying of shame? No fear...

[What_Goes_Up]

danmclaughlin.ie/

Welcome to danmclaughlin.ie -Independent economic analysis and commentary

Dan McLaughlin has had a long, distinguished and award winning career as an economist, holding a variety of research roles in stockbroking and banking, most recently as Chief Economist at Bank of Ireland. He has now set up an economic research and consultancy service, Dan McLaughlin Economics, providing independent analysis and commentary on economic and financial issues.

twitter.com/drdanmclaughlin

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Daniel McLaughlin
@drdanmclaughlin

Former Chief Economist at Bank of Ireland and ABN Amro Stockbrokers. Now providing independent comment and research on current economic issues.

Dublin, Ireland · danmclaughlin.ie

irisheconomy.ie/index.php/20 … ent-454058

Dan Mclaughlin Says:
October 9th, 2013 at 1:22 pm

The divergent trends in the labour market and measured GDP are also evident in the latest Finance pre-Budget forecasts- nominal GDP in 2014 is now projected to be 4bn lower than previously forecast with real GDP growth cut by 0.6 percentage points but employment over this year and next has been revised up by 1.5% and the unemployment rate down by 0.7%. Consequently, the implication is that Finance will revise up their income tax forecast and revise down their social welfare spend despite what on the face of it was a bleaker outlook. One caveat though; half the annual rise in employment in q2 was in agriculture and the CSO warn about sampling issues there so the optimism on job creation may be a tad optimistic, but we will see.

[mr_anderson]

As mentioned above, his twitter profile reads :

**Former **Chief Economist at Bank of Ireland and ABN Amro Stockbrokers. Now providing independent comment and research on current economic issues.

Was there no official announcement of this distinguished and award winning sage’s departure from our most august of banking institutions ?

[damoivan]

Have to laugh when I read about some of the analysts from the banks, estate agents etc during the boom who are now providing independent comment and research on current economic issues.
As Gerorge Bush once said " Fool me once, more fool you. Fool me twice , more fool me "

[Eschatologist]

@damoivan

As Gerorge Bush once said " Fool me once, more fool you. Fool me twice , more fool me "

He actually said “There’s an old saying in Tennessee - I know it’s in Texas, probably in Tennessee - that says, fool me once, shame on - shame on you. Fool me - you can’t get fooled again”.

Don’t think about it too hard or your brain will melt.

[magoko101]

Bush "Fool Me Once..."

In fairness JBJnr was leader of the free world… considering that Dan might have been a bit too smart to progress in BOI

[Conflicted]

So Deparate Dan has popped up. Whatever happened to comical austin and I can’t recall the other one.

I imagine Dan walked out of BOI with some golden handshake but i’d guess his latest endevour won’t be anywhere near as lucrative as being chief economist in BOI.

Anyone know whether BOI even have a chief economist anymore?

[FreeFallin]

@Conflicted

So Deparate Dan has popped up. Whatever happened to comical austin and I can’t recall the other one.

I imagine Dan walked out of BOI with some golden handshake but i’d guess his latest endevour won’t be anywhere near as lucrative as being chief economist in BOI.

Anyone know whether BOI even have a chief economist anymore?

Comical Austin is still at his bank, issuing regular consumer sentiment survey results and getting a fair bit of media coverage each time. Play on

[jake76]

@Conflicted

Anyone know whether BOI even have a chief economist anymore?

I am sure the yanks have a few quants.

[mr_anderson]

@jake76

@Conflicted

Anyone know whether BOI even have a chief economist anymore?

I am sure the yanks have a few quants.

No ‘Chief’, just presumably two indians …

Michael Crowley

Senior Economist, Bank of Ireland Global Markets

Michael Crowley is a senior economist in the Economic Research Unit (ERU) of Bank of Ireland Global Markets. He joined Global Markets in June 2001 having previously worked as an economist with Davy Stockbrokers in Dublin. He is a Bachelor of Arts (Economics) graduate of University College Galway and holds a Masters Degree in Economic Science from University College, Dublin.

Patrick Mullane

Senior Economist, Bank of Ireland Global Markets

Patrick joined the Bank of Ireland Economic Research Unit in April 2008. Previously Patrick worked in the Department of Finance where he held positions in international economy and Irish economic forecasting sections. He holds a primary degree in Business Studies from the University of Limerick and a Master Degree in Economics from University College Dublin.

corporatebanking.bankofireland.com/treasury/about-us/economic-research-unit/

[jake76]

@mr_anderson

Patrick Mullane

Senior Economist, Bank of Ireland Global Markets

Previously Patrick worked in the Department of Finance where he held positions in international economy and **Irish economic forecasting sections. **

[Conflicted]

my favourite alltime post (just had a quick look and can’t find) from the pin was about desperate Dan, comical austin and others getting in a minibus and doing a tour of ghost estates to get a sense of the real fundamentals of the irish economy

I also remember some madcap article in the Irish Times where Dan was harping on about the numbers still adding up for a buy to let investment (very late in the day) looking at the return based on capital down - really seemed to be flogging a dead horse at that stage

[grumpy]

And finally, fiscal policy. Is there anything that will lead to the government having to raise the tax burden significantly? In fact right now the opposite is true. At the end of 2006 Irish tax receipts exceeded day to day spending by 9.1 billion. 9.1 billion. The government has underspent for the past five years. The current tax system is generating income the government can’t spend. If you’re running a company and you were doing that you would give it back to the shareholders. We are using the massive surpluses on the current budget to run down our national debt which, as I said, now is actually the lowest in the Western world as a percentage of GDP. Secondly, we are using it to fund capital spent. The real debate we should have in budget time is is that a sensible thing to do. If we were running a British style fiscal policy, their policy is to balance the current budget. We have a nine billion current budget surplus, so the notion that fiscal policy is tight or loose is ridiculous. We have current tax system generates a huge amount of surplus that the government cannot spend. So, to me, demand is unlikely to be too low in five years.
So what’s the economy going to look like? I think if in 2006 our GDP is 176 billion, in 2012 it will 280 billion. Our per capita income will be 56 percent higher than the EU norm, it’s currently about 40 percent, and we’re currently spending about 75 billion a year in consumer. In 2012 we’ll be spending about 130 billion a year.

Jan 2007.

davidmcwilliams.ie/2007/01/1 … r-mouth-is

Another tosser.

[Daniel_Plainview]

@grumpy

So what’s the economy going to look like? I think if in 2006 our GDP is 176 billion, in 2012 it will 280 billion. Our per capita income will be 56 percent higher than the EU norm, it’s currently about 40 percent, and we’re currently spending about 75 billion a year in consumer. In 2012 we’ll be spending about 130 billion a year.

[Eschatologist]

@Daniel Plainview

I love the way you’ve credited grumpy with that quote.

[mr_anderson]

Thanks for the heads up WGU and nice find Grumpy.

I actually thought of trawling through the pin and various other websites and online documents to post some of the esteemed doctor’s most learned analysis and prophecies, but I gave up due to choice-overload.

[metalmike]

@Barney Gumble

we’d have had an economy bigger than the USA by 2056.

The way the muppets in US government are behaving at the moment I wouldn’t rule that out.

[Renting_And_Proud]

@Barney Gumble

That is brilliant. That really is the acme of ‘extend the straight line on the graph’ economic forecasting. I’m not sure why he stopped in 2012 - according to his projections (and I’ve gone to the trouble of working this out) we’d have had an economy bigger than the USA by 2056.

Disco Stu: [making indescribable body motions] Did you know that disco record sales were up 400/ for the year ending 1976? If these trends continue… A-y-y-y! [kicks his feet up on his desk wearing see-through platforms with water and fish inside]

Homer: Uh, your fish are dead.

Disco Stu: Yeah, I know. I… can’t get them out of there.

[mr_anderson]

disco dan ?

[grumpy]

This is a bit ad hominem and mean, but fuck it. I hadn’t seen his face in about two years.

If they are ever remaking Deliverance, Dan could do the banjo scene.

[Pill]

@grumpy

This is a bit ad hominem and mean, but fuck it. I hadn’t seen his face in about two years.

If they are ever remaking Deliverance, Dan could do the banjo scene.

Somebody had made that comparison on here years ago, nice pics 'an all…