Davy: Recession to end after Christmas

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Read more: breakingnews.ie/business/eyc … z0STpmv3HU

Already posted

actually, you posted it after onestepbehind posted it.
so, get back on topic.

It seems that any old shite will sufice for a forecast. So long as you can ignore that piles of shite that comprised your previous forecasts. How can any of these tosspots be believed when they are all so obviosly pushing another agenda: create another bubble as soon as possible.

Today the lovely Rossa White says:

news.eircom.net/breakingnews/165 … w=Standard`

The recession will end in the first quarter of next year, according to Davy Research’s chief economist Rossa White.

“The Irish economy is set to return to growth in Q1 2010,” said the new report. "We expect average annual growth of 0.5% in real GNP in 2010, but that conceals gradual acceleration in economic activity intra-year. It implies a peak-to-trough decline in GNP of 14% from Q3 2007-Q4 2009.

But some of his previous statements were (these are just extracts), all of which were entirely wrong were:

The Daft.ie House Price Report
An analysis of recent trends in the Irish residential sales market
Quarter 1 | 2007

daft.ie/report/DaftReport-Q12007.pdf

The latest Daft.ie figures show that vendors have revised their price expectations, as a result of weaker demand from potential buyers. But the data also continues to suggest that the most likely outcome for prices is a period of stagnation rather than significant decline.

***The Irish experience contrasts somewhat with US house-builders’ response to the inflection point in that market in late-summer 2005. Our American counterparts kept building liberally and did not pull in their horns until the start of 2006. ***Housing starts were finally slashed throughout last year but developers’ delayed reaction meant that the over-supply problem was relatively contained rather than calamitous.

***Selling prices are unlikely to decline sharply here for a number of reasons. ***Firstly, Irish builders have cut supply immediately and radically. That may help prevent a debilitating overhang of unsold stock. Secondly, the majority of new home developers are cash-rich after years of high retained earnings. They can afford to sit and wait for sales to materialise without having to drop prices significantly. Thirdly, existing home-owners wishing to trade-up invariably take their homes off the market rather than sell at a discount. In some cases, they may prefer to extend or renovate their homes rather than settle for a lower price. Our guess is that prices will be unchanged to slightly down over the next six months.

davydirect.ie/content/pubart … ct2006.pdf

Fortunately, the government has been prudent (so far)

Luckily, the government has so far been prudent in its assumptions for
the property market. Evidently, it would be folly to assume strong
growth in the sector given the potential for a massive swing in tax
revenue, as shown in our sensitivity analysis.

For example in Budget 2005, it conservatively budgeted that (total)
stamp duty would drop 1.5% in 2006 over 2005 and for an increase of
8% in (total) VAT receipts. It expected CGT to rise a meagre 4%.

Its exact assumptions for the property market are unclear, but it is
reasonable to assume that any overshoot on revenue under the key
property headings (viz. stamp, VAT and CGT) is due to the unexpected
buoyancy of the sector. Based on the tax profile for January-September,
we think the property bonus amounts to about €1.25bn year to date. It
could be €2bn for the full year.

davydirect.ie/content/pubart … Q32008.pdf

Unemployment rate to hit 10%+ by end-2009 as private services employment drops

(The standardised unemployment rate in August 2009 was 12.4% - see cso.ie/releasespublications/ … t/lreg.pdf)

davydirect.ie/content/pubart … 070129.pdf

Investment in infrastructure to negate fall in housing volumes in
2007-2009

House completions probably peaked in Ireland in 2006. Almost 88,200
houses were built, up 2.3% from 2005. But that was the slowest rate of
growth of housebuilding since 1993. We do not expect a sharp decline
in 2007. Housing starts in the second half of 2006 were remarkably
similar to the same period of 2005. Our models suggest 87,000
completions in 2007 unless housing demand dips alarmingly in the next
few months.

However, we look for only 82,000 completions in 2008 and see volumes
trending steadily lower out to the end of the decade. That is where the
NDP comes in. It provides an important stimulus that largely offsets our
forecast housing decline in 2007-2009.

Each drop of 10,000 house completions knocks about 1% off GNP. But
we are assuming that completions fall by around 5,000 in 2008 and
2009, trimming 0.5% from GNP. Importantly, government investment
in infrastructure is set to impart a stimulus of similar magnitude in the
opposite direction in each of those years (see Table 1). In mechanical
terms, the 0.5% hit to national income from housing will be negated by
capital investment.

And so on.

For a laugh (if you can still laugh without sounding hysterical), look at:

google.ie/search?hl=en&as_q= … afe=images

I’ll stop now because it is too easy to find examples of this cretin’s errors.

What sort of arrogance enables a tool such as this to go to work in the morning and make random economic statements?

It’s a peculiar method to use. No?

Wouldn’t GDP be more ususal? Are Davy’s expecting GDP to continue to decline? That the burst of production from swine flu will disappear?

Well Santa will be doing the rounds about then and what with NAMA … of course our economy is going to recovery.

Lack of a conscience maybe?

That analysis from 2007 brings me back.
When we used to be told that developers had the ability to switch off supply like a tap and lock prices high!
Telling the ordinary pleb not to go getting their hopes up…

We face a serious problem in how society has developed. Dishonesty has been elevated to a necessary characteristic for a huge number of jobs (mostly comparatively well paid jobs too). Lying is standard business practice in all sectors.

I overheard some of the Apprentice last night as regrettably the missus has taken to watching it (I think she paid too much attention to marketing in college). Two things struck me: Firstly, the staggering mundanity of the candidates assembled. Can we please have some acknowledgment that peoples’ abilities really aren’t spread over that wide a spectrum? You could take a random sample of recruitment chimps and sales monkeys and you’d never know the difference from a chosen Apprentice selection. Maybe I’m missing something here - maybe this crowd isn’t supposed to be competent at all, they’ve just been picked for entertainment purposes only.

The second thing I noticed, before deciding my Xbox was a better use of my time, was the standard response when things aren’t going to plan for the candidates. They lie. So if you cock up, and forget what you’re meant to be doing, or forget the client’s instructions, why come clean? Just tell a lie and make it sound it was all part of some conscious and daring plan to think “outside the box” (bleurgh). It doesn’t usually take the form of outright lies of course. You have to work the truth, pummel it a bit, chew it, massage it, give it some Reiki and maybe some hot stone therapy. After all that even you may not be too sure what’s a lie and what isn’t. You start to actually believe your own bullshit.

Sadly, we do not reward honesty. An honest politician will never succeed within his or her own party, because they’d be a threat to the Party mythology spun by so many liars before them. A lot of people lied good and hard to get where they are today, and by fuck you’re not going to undo that work by coming along telling the truth.

An honest economist hired by a bank, or any other institution with an agenda could never last. The first truth he tells counter to his paymaster and he’s gone. If there was even a hint he was honest he’d never get the job anyway. So the honest economist has two choices: Stop being honest; or stop being an economist. Of course choosing the former also means you choose the latter. There are those within academia who at least have the freedom of thought, and purse string, to pursue a path with more integrity. “Doom Mongers”, we have called them latterly. They are important, and it’s never gratifying to see them bought, like Alan Ahearne.

We do not, as an economy, as a society, or as country, value honesty. Honesty is an impediment to doing well. Honesty is an impediment to doing business. Honesty is an impediment to making money. We do not have honest media (hello Irish Times / myhome.ie), honest politicians, honest business or honest citizens.

Don’t blame Rossa for his dishonesty, he’s really only fitting in.