Davys says that estimate 75,000 builds now seems "high&

Davys now say that their target of 75,000 new build now seems “high”. Hidden in a report on Bank Of Ireland but very telling.

2pack has gone on record as saying

  1. completions in 2007 will not exceed 70000
  2. the annualised rate of building by late this year(and on into the first 1/3 of next year) will be 60000 at most

How many jobs does the building of one house sustain for the year or so it takes to build? I’d estimate 2 jobs per house, when you include all the associated hours involving ESB, Eircom, taring roads, seeding the lawn etc.

If completions go from the current 93000 in 2006 to 60000 in 2008 thats a 30% drop,if there’s 200000(?) directly employed in residential construction then 30% less would put 60000 out of a job :open_mouth: .
Makes the 400 job losses at Dell pale in significance.

Yes but a pretty high % of that 60,000 can fuck off back to where they came from… :stuck_out_tongue: Hihi… Lucky buggers…

I’d say up to 50% conservatively and there is a soakage into the NDP and retail construction…


AIB says 10,000 jobs to go in construction.

So as there are about 158,000 unemployed now, add another 40,000 and the magic 200,000 number will be breached.

That number will be psychologically damaging to economic confidence, like the bad old days of 200k+ unemployed when the country was deemed a ‘failure’ back then. (early 90’s i think it was)

Trouble is officially only 13% of construction workers are foreign - remember Bertie expected those to vote for him too :unamused:

Let’s say the real figure is 13%, which it isn’t… That still equates to almost 50% of that 60,000 like I said… So you got a fair amount of natural wastage almost overnight…

O’course, the problem is that’s alot of rental accommodation becoming vacant overnight too… And money disappearing out of the sandwich roll line in the Spar!

Oh vicious circularity!!! Why must you always boot us in the ass in the end??? :open_mouth: :wink:

Doesn’t that presuppose that it’ll be the foreign chaps who lose their jobs first?

Hardly seems likely, as they’re the most motivated. I’ve been to Poland, and Ireland’s minimum wage of 28 zloty an hour goes very far indeed over there.

For the record how far now, lke on the Beer Price Index 8) Thats the kind of thing people understand :wink:

Look at the figures closely.

The figure is 12.8%

However the number of workers from the accession states in the country is 61,600 and 15,200 of them are working in construction.

So 24.7% of the Accession state workers are working in construction.

€0.50 will buy you a pint of beer in Poland. It’s a wonderful place, where you can get hammered on a fiver! :smiley:

Hard to beat cold hard figures alright. 15000 is a long ways from 60000.
I wonder how many “unofficial” foreign workers are not included in the official figures.I suspect the figure is relatively small as 1] the paddies wouldn’t be long blowing the whistle and 2] the revenue have been all over the construction industry like a bad rash for the past year.

Those percentage figures used in the chart are those in construction over those in all forms of employment,what we’re interested in is foreigners in construction over Irish in construction.

So only 6.6% of construction workers are from accession states,
15,200 as a percentage of 227,900 :open_mouth: .

Although the total non Irish working in construction is 11.1%. 25,300 as a percentage of 227,900.

88.9% of construction workers are Irish.

It will mostly be an Irish workers problem.

Using those prices… I’d be hammered on €3!

Yes but its interesting to note that nearly a quarter of accession state workers are in the construction industry. And yes your right the much bigger problem is Irish workers, nonetheless these 15,000 will probably have less “roots” put down here and would probably delay unemployment figures a bit.

Just been trying to get figures for as close to the present date as possible:
ALOT of people involved in construction!

As I suspected (ok well it was obvious) the no. of Accession state workers has increased since the previous info. Up 37,000!

I seriously doubt a reduction in builds is directly proportional to the labor required to produce them. However, more expensive Irish labour could suffer first in an attempt to reduce the cost of a build.


You are of course correct but we could give an educated guess using the ratios of labour to a years completions from the past.
Yeah the rip off merchants will be burnt first. The Polish work harder anyway.
Can we keep the Poles and send the Irish builders back to Poland in their place?

I suppose one could look at the US situation for a guide

bloomberg.com/apps/news?pid= … refer=home

There’s some serious numbers involved here.