Dead Cat Bounce?

Long time lurker- love the site. I’ve noticed of late many people enquiring as to the value of particular properties. It’s just a feeling, but does anyone else think the Dead Cat Bounce is about to pounce? I think many possible buyers have stayed out of the market and are now seeing (relative to 2006 prices) some value and are fed up waiting to buy. I could be wrong but I really think it is beginning. Plus, the weather has improved and I think that could add to the desire to move. Don’t be too harsh on me. I’m one of the lambs not wishing to be slaughtered!

I agree completely. It could be a strong end to the selling season, but it won’t reverse the trend. I imagine that if there is an upsurge in activity it could tempt even more properties on to the market.

I was thinking the same. Plus Isabel Morton has the inside line on eejits and she’s calling bottom.

There must be one about due.

It’s like trying to catch a falling knife, I don’t think there will be an increase in sales. Are you an EA?..only joking. Fact is 10% are unemployed, 90% are either expecting to be employed or are taking pay cuts…or getting their free cars taken back by BMW. It takes balls to buy in a falling market and our tiger got the snip…

But I think comments like your will only help our economy. If people like you really start believing and buying then we can get back on track to our ultimate goal*. The G20’s should forget about dealing with the banks and deal with the media instead. A few months of the box telling us everything is ok and I’d take a loan from AIB to buy their shares and and use the profit to buy a 1 bed flat in city west.

  • to be the most expensive country in the world

I think your right about a brief upsurge of buyers on the way,but I’d put it down to the end of new year optimism/patience , a change in weather and a few daffodils in the garden. As the year goes on Id say it will be back to a falling market.

Little boys whistle a happy tune loudly when walking past the graveyard at night. Remember that when you next hear an EA munching on green shoots while talking up the market. Other years it’s called the spring bounce.

Cognitative Disonance (sp) works in all kinds of weird & wonderful ways.
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For years people have been conditioned to except that property only ever goes up.

At the same time a certain amount of people have either; been able to resist the urge to buy, or haven’t had the funds to buy.

Now these poor sod’s who have been pulling at the bit for the last few years are now, probably for the first time in their adult lives, watching house prices go down, into the range they think they might be able to buy (based on what the the banks would lend them 2 years ago probably).

They’re shit scared that they’re going to miss out on their only opportunity to own their own home. This ridiculous, unreasonable, Irish, need to own some pile of bricks is making them think to themselves that the edge of the knife doesn’t look too sharp, & they’re pretty sure they can grab the handle.

All we can do on the Pin is try to talk them down off the ledge & help the better judge the value of their ‘dream home’.

Be strong folks !

To paraphrase a certain shill ‘this isn’t looking like a V-Shaped recovery’ it looks more like a bathtub.

rgemonitor.com/roubini-monitor/255995/reflections_on_the_latest_dead_cat_bounce_or_bear_market_suckers_rally

businessinsider.com/100-long-roubini-says-rally-is-a-dead-cat-bounce-2009-3

A friend of mine has his house on the market since beginning of Jan, it’s a standard 3 bed simi in Cork city suburbs. I was surprised at the amount of viewings hes had. Roughly two or three per week, they were not all FTB’s either. Some weeks there will be no viewings but all in all it’s been pretty constant and it really surprised me to be honest. He got an offer last week 45k below asking price which he’s going to accept from a single guy buying on his own, job in public service. Don’t know if all his finances are in place, that remains to be seen but I was surprised that there were that many people out there even looking right now.

I suppose there is a time for people to move. And there’s only so long people can hold off. It’s just a question of who is getting it right and who is getting it wrong.

I have been watching a couple of houses recently and contacting the EA’s to find out what sort of region the sold/sale agreed prices were. In one case, two similar enough houses went sale agreed with both around about the same asking price. One went for considerably lower than the asking price according to one EA and the other just a bit below it.

So my thinking is either one EA is giving a false price. Or the first house went for a good current price and the second house went to a panicked buyer who jumped when the first one went sale agreed.

Doesn’t surprise me that there are people itching to buy. There has been a huge propoganda machine operating in this country that Goebbels would have been proud of. A conspiracy of thousands prepared to shaft everyone else. If you want to buy now then I couldn’t give a shit, just don’t come back asking someone to bail you out or that you were misled or the bad banks made me do it. This country is well and truly fucked, such had been the level of brainwashing. I am still amazed at people describing €600,000 as good value for a house in Stepaside, or Terenure or any other housing estate you wish to mention. XX

I too have been surprised by some recent activity I have seen in the property market, I would characterize it exactly as a Dead Cat Bounce and cannot understand how anyone would see it otherwise given the deterioration in the economy and likely further pain.

You guys are suspicious! I’m not an EA! I’m not talking up the market just because I’m saying there’s a dead cat bounce(and I certainly wouldn’t choose this website to do it :slight_smile: ). We’re actually just about to put our apt up for sale as our family has grown too big. I’ll let you know if my feeling is actually real.

“Time preference is an intense preference to receive goods or services immediately.”

None of us are getting younger and the birth rate for “the popes children” peaked in 1980 after that it fell precipitously.
Interesting coincidence that the boom peaked in 2006 when the majority on this population was settling down to have children. Even with the depression that desire to settle and start a family has not gone away and now that 3 & 4 bed house prices are falling within range of peoples budgets of course they are buying.
However, this pickup in transactions is a result of substantial price cutting and not the resumption of pre-boom excess, once the buyers in this new lower price bracket are exhausted, then transactions will drop and prices will resume their downward trend to discover the next pool of buyers.

Wages are falling through a combination of higher taxation, lower productivity and increase in supply of skilled labour supply willing to work for lower wages. If we do revert to 80s levels of taxation then it follows that banks must also revert to 80s style lending practices and the Irish population will also continue it’s migratory pattern of the last 200 years.
In nominal and real terms I expect prices to keep falling until 2011, thereafter they will continue to fall in real terms, but may rise in nominal terms for a few more years until the next cycle begins.

It’s only my 2nd posting – so don’t be cruel. Having followed The Pin religiously for the last 18 months we have put 2 (somewhat) lowball offers on 2 different places in the past 3 weeks – only to be reliably informed they have both gone Sale Agreed – both apparently to some other person!! Are these E.A’s underhand tactics, dubious psychology or a true Dead Cat Bounce??? Surely there can not be too many other oops I mean people in the same position as us out there. Anyhoo – went for viewing in Blackrock on Saturday last – could hardly get round the place for folks ‘chompin at the bit’ – surely there can’t be THAT many tyre kickers out there?? Meantime my most recent panic attack is past and I am still happily ensconced in ‘rentsville’ as I await the arrival of the real ‘bottom’ and prepare my next bolshie buyer plan of action - and as for Isabel Morton…emmmmmm!!! XD

At least one will reappear on the market ( probably with a different EA in fairness) and with a lower price.

The other may sell or may be ‘withdrawn’ from the market.

We are a long way off bottom Minerva , honest :frowning:

Please Chill…and save cash for when you do go for it.

After my trip to the bank this morning, my feeling is that the dead cat is still in freefall - a long way from hitting the ground and bouncing. We are currently in a 2 bed apt (bought in my ‘unattached’ days). It has structural defects, so would not be able to sell - at any price. But, it could be rented out…and the area is still renting well, even though at lower rents. Up until 2 weeks ago BOI would take rental income vs. mortgage of property into consideration when looking at my request for a trade-up mortgage. I am ‘permanent/pensionable/etc’ (as much as can be these days), in the job 11 years, good prospects, good salary, etc. etc. But, because I am now saddled with an approx. 1250 mortgage monthly (295 000 outstanding on the loan) that is now seen as an expense in its entirety, my mortgage approval for a second property has dropped from 440 000 to 270 000 in the space of 4 months. (This even taking into consideration 75 000 euro in savings). We are now 3 in the apartment and have a lively toddler bouncing off the walls and no place to put all our work (the 2 of us do a lot of after hours/weekend work from home for our ‘day’ jobs). So, desperate to move. I am an Irish citizen, have no other debts aside from my current mortgage (no credit card debt or car loans), no past credit problems, have 3 degrees (1 undergrad + 2 postgrad, culminating in a PhD), earn 83 000/annum and do a job that there are only 8 others of in the country and a second income from consultancy work (netting up to 15 000/annum - could be more, but I don’t want to spend weekends away from my child). I bought for what I needed at the time, and then had to live in it for 2 years to avoid stamp duty clawback. In retrospect I should have previously extended myself further (as the bank would have permitted at the time, but I was being financially conservative and trying to be responsible about my finances), then at least we would have a house to live in now (negative equity does not matter if it is your home for many years). Work Dublin city centre, so don’t want to have too far to commute, as want to spend time with child. Co. Dublin is as far out as I want to go.
So, if the banks are no longer counting rental income when people want to trade up (the same people battling to sell the first property), then I really don’t see that the bottom of the property market is even in sight yet. I do appreciate that I am probably (currently, anyway) one of the lucky few who has a job and an income. But, I do feel a little sad that I have/am working very hard and saving hard, and have a good credit rating and the banks are shrugging me off.

Did ye not get an engineer to have a look at it before you bought at the time? Are the defects relating to a block entirely? Does the block have a fund for repairs? :question:

Geld

You are one of the victims of the Ponzi Irish property Scheme, although a well off one.

Solution:

Rent a property to suit your needs, then rent yours to suit somebody else. Hang on for a few years, as renting can be great.

BTW: If the property has structural defects - who is responsible and can you sue?

Really??

You still have mortgage approval and it doesn’t seem that unreasonable (all things considered) an amount to me.

I think the bank is being responsible here.

What multiple of your take home pay is €270,000?