I’m curious to how the conclusions are reached, as someone stated on another thread Ireland lastest scattering is bound to affect previous projections.
Along with the 20s/early thirties group, I know families with three and four kids emigrating,
Certainly the projections on this above links would need to be treated with caution because it is impossible to know what impact emigration/immigration/war/disease/birth rate changes etc. will have into the future.
Please note that housing isn’t a homogenous commodity.
I’ve noted that here in Germany which has had a historically low family size the types of houses you see are different.
the houses are subdivided in to apartments and are located in towns and villages.
Ireland doesn’t have the same housing stock. Our houses aren’t as easily subdivided and are often more rural.
All those apartments built in Ireland would have come in useful as the demographics changed if they hadn’t been built on boreens on the edge of villages like Edgeworthstown and Kilbeggan nowhere near anywhere.
There will probably be need for smaller housing units as the decades pass but it still leaves Ireland with an overhang of inappropriate dwellings.
I would say that the availiability and cost of transportation will play an ever increasing part in the decision making process of selection where to live (& buy) in the future. We currently have a huge number of properties that were built in far flung parts of the country that were totally dependent on cheap fuel to enable people on average incomes to be able to affort to commute from them.
The days of cheap petrol & diesel are now gone for good, barring a major economic collapse!
There is more likely to be an internal migration to towns and cities with employment than a serious lack of demant due to demographics.
I was looking at a lovely big house with a huge garage out in the back and beyond but still only about 5 miles from my home place when I was at home going for a song. A bit run down but only mostly cosmetic problems.
I just couldn’t justify it to myself at any price as it was out in the middle of nowhere and I didn’t want to be so isolated and having to jump in to a car and burn 10 euros of petrol every time I wanted to visit town.
I also visited West Dublin and the trip from the midlands cost €20 in petrol and best part of 6 euro in tolls even though my car was doing 42mpg on the trip.
There is an economic cost to living in remote locations which is going to start hitting home soon and affect the price of rural homes.
We currently need two cars. To be in a situation where we’d only need one, I’d anticipate paying an extra €300 a month rent for something near similar to what we have now or €3,600 a year.
The second car costs in or around the same as this to keep on the road for the year. In terms of where we’re living and the additional mobility provided by the second car, it’s justified… at the moment. But I agree with your point and see things tending that way also.
This was predicted for years - even before ‘sustainability’ was invented - it seemed that for one to even harbour such thoughts was regarded as anti-countryfolk heresy by various Rural Housing lobbies.
I am originally from rural parts, but close to Dublin in an admittedly scenic sort of place, meself - a son of the soil who couldn’t wait to get out of the place and stay out of the place once I got a whiff of the Smoke.
I could never, even as a kid, see what the attraction was for folk, who had nothing to do with farming, trying to buy and build houses down home - setting themselves up for years of commuting hardship and their kids for years of facility starvation.
Got so sick of the “When are you moving back down?” questions from locals anytime I visited the homepace - “Back down to what …?” I’d retort - " … twenty minutes drive for a pint of milk, and what when I get old and they take the licence off me?"
The bungalowisation that occured in my home area was something to behold, although thankfully made a bit more difficult latterly and now even more thankfully moribund in the bust. Whole roads were turned into some sort of free style semi-suburb, but joined up with dirt tracks - while the building stock of local villages rotted away.
To voice any criticism to this type of non-development (as I often did) was to be branded a sort of class traitor down home - big VI factor in selling sites and building houses of course - and ecological arguments were entertained very lightly indeed!
Perhaps a person wants a holiday home? For whatever reason of enjoying the sea, in Ireland, and accepting the Irish weather for what it is. Rather than flying abroad for 2 weeks of a sun holiday.
The difficulty is that the city salaries are greater than rural salaries due to the concentration of the credit institutions (banks and governmets) being typically in the cities. Where they rule people.
It’s obvious that those city people who want a sea view then use the credit that they can more easily achive and move using that fakely created but real in effect money to buy places by the sea.
I don’t have any problem with that.
I’ve a problem with the unequal distribution of credit to those in government, by government and for government.
We’ve a nation of cretins here.
Run out a milk much? Mind not planning ahead and coordinating your bypassing of a shop wherever with your needs?
If you are out in the country why not have your own milch cows and sure you can have milk whenever you want it with no need to be going to town at all.
The big question that I have for people here is just how long is an acceptable commute?
In terms of both time, cost and distance?
To answer that question myself.
Right now my commute is takes 35 minutes, costs about 12 euros (all costs of fuel, wear, taxes, insurance etc included) and is 21 miles.
This is at the very outside of what is acceptable. It’s not perfect.
But I’m luck that I’m only 200yards from a shop so I don’t need no cows!
I’ve noticed in a few threads lately that there is a demographic missing.
I have been renting for a number of years. When I started renting my kids were under 10.
Fast forward now and they are teenagers, I am still relatively young (mid 40’s).
My needs are changing. When the kids were younger I wanted a 4 bed semi in a nice area, I actually got that by renting, now though, after years of saving and adapting to what I had as opposed to what I wanted, I find that the 4 bed semi is actually not what I want/need long term.
I can envision myself in 5 years from now, floating around in a 4 bed semi in a nice area - on my own, or more or less on my own. So I have come to the conclusion that I will never buy in Ireland again.
I am now focussing on property abroad as opposed to here.
By not buying in the last few years I have saved enough to put the kids through college. It’s becoming more about me than them.
I reckon that a lot of people my age who have rented will also come to the same conclusion.
If I really wanted I could buy somewhere. But coming into a time when I should be winding down and starting to enjoy life, why would I put all my cash into a property that will only cause me to have less disposable income?
I really doubt that I’m alone with this realisation.
Poland shape is sourced in fact that we lost massive population in WW2, and you can notice that first bump is people born just after 1945, next bump is their children and so on… Another spike was martial law where at certain hours people had to stay at home, shortage of electricity and so on
What is means that is that we live in cycles where we close schools and have not enough schools and other institutions caring for people of certain age.