Department (of F) says it warned of property bubble

Francis Ruane of the ESRI was on Moaning Ireland this morning saying that the ESRI also warned about the bubble and its outcomes. Sure it was the ESRI who encouraged Professor Kelly to publish :unamused:

At this rate, ‘everyone’ will have known about it, ‘everyone’ will have said it, but no-one will have done anything about it.

Yeah, warned like this…

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=6G86ZhyVHAM

“But we told you, remember when I rang you at the Galway races minister and said maybe we’re buildting too many flats and you said you couldnt talk cause some fellla Dunne was with you? What?What? But minister you didnt sound drunk and honest we told you”

Why do I get the feeling people are trying to hold onto jobs and promotion prospects?

I can’t wait for Brendan O’Connor’s “I warned you about the bubble and I turned out to be right!” article. Then I can die happy.

At this juncture, I think it is timely to remind everyone, that the official government line on this is as follows;

“no one saw it coming”, “it wasn’t our fault” and “we’re not as screwed as Greece”.

In the unlikely event that any or all of that turns out not to be true, then we must temper any desire to find out what went wrong, who was responsible and “on the ‘screwed scale’ of 1 to Greece, are we now at 11?”, due to the plain bad luck of certain FF members who were, as it turns out, in the wrong place at the wrong time as they inherited their new, well paid roles just precisely at the moment that the whole house of cards that was the Irish economic miracle (aka the celtic tiger or if you prefer the Bertie Bubble) collapsed due to its shoddy construction by their party predecessors. Feel sorry for them people, feel sorry for them and know that their bad luck is punishment enough.

The plan, in so far as it exists, to salvage anything we can from this is to repeat this mantra “We are where we are. Lets not forget that this government made smaller/bigger compared to the inflated GDP figures. Going forward ”. If that doesn’t work, blame the opposition, as they will be unable to build an arguement to save themselves.

Blue Horseshoe

Its only a matter of time.

Every incompetent government body or agency are pointing to a paragraph in some report where they whispered “we might be fucked”. I don’t know, but this seems completely inadequate to me. Unless they produce reports where the front cover screams “bubble - fucking great big bubble - danger”, they’re culpable.

CC

even if someone, somewhere, in the bowels of a Government department, agency or office had managed to get such a report produced, and even if said report made it to the desk of someone “in power”, the play book script of deniabliity has already been written and enacted elsewhere (all be it with more tragic results).

To paraphrase a line from one of FF’s beloved Catholic Church sermons;

The response is;
“we are where we are”, “no one saw it coming” …

Blue Horseshoe

No shit.

Around 12 months from the peak (and several years too late) they start to warn about a bubble?

Maybe even less that 12 months, by 2005 they could mean some information given to the minister for the 2006 budget late in 2005.

By mid 2006 it was probably public knowledge that the housing “industry” was in trouble to some degree, asking prices were already going back in some regions. By the '07 election everyone clearly knew, as it was the reason behind the various stamp duty proposals.

So in 2005-2006 the runaway train was so far down the tracks that if Cowen had been convinced by DoF there was a crash on the way, he had two choices - denial and hope it’ll work out somehow - or guaranteed vilification as the instigator of a crash which would have been seen as being caused by him reversing bank oversight policies and government spending. Instead he ended up getting blamed for a bigger crash - but at least he’d become taoiseach by that stage.

This statement is essentially correct. Everyone knew we were in a bubble.
Vested interests such as EA and banks’ economists knew, but tried to justify the bubble with “funnymentals”
The Government knew but thought it could stage manage the downturn with a soft landing
We, the people knew it was a new paradigm in pyramid schemes, (remember the Women empowering Women and the other Corkeen scheme) we didn’t care, just as long as there were new fools lining up.

Proof they know something but its not much use in the game. Disband I say, Disband!

+1

They’re all at it. Wven Labour and Fine Gael (who assume no responibility for this crash, and they’re just as culpable) are saying they predicted it coming. When clearly in their 2007 manifesto’s, they state policies that would have inflated the bubble further.

In her IT article yesterday she talked about the ESRI being one of 5 bodies set up by Lemass in 1960 (to give research backbone to public policy seemed to be the idea). I have googled to find out the other four (I am guessing Teagasc, An Foras Forbatha and maybe the HRB could be among them) anyone know for definite?

Not on RTE… But isn’t this the wrong thread… ish… :stuck_out_tongue:

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Yup!

Fixed!
viewtopic.php?p=402474#p402474

Typical of the mandarins trying to rewrite history, they put a one line disclaimer somewhere in a paragraph on the back of a report after they spent the previous pages justifying the fundamentals. Remember them, whatever happened to “de fundamentals”? Anyone who reads the central bank reports of the time will see this carry on as well, all the talk was about “soft landings”.

What is apparent is the f@ckers don’t have a clue and never have, as McWilliams pointed out back in the early 90s during the ERM crisis, they let Irelands foreign reserves totally evaporate before they had no option but to devalue, all to hold in good standing with their bureaucratic counterparts in Europe. They lied then and justified their position as “If we hadn’t intervened it would have been much worse”, they will do the same again when they are forced to shut Anglo and NAMA fails.