Dept of Environment Statistics Q4 2007

The Irish Property Bubble The Republic of Property
#1

Apologies if stats already posted on the pin.

As far as I can see the statistics have been updated to excel files on environ.ie website without any press release. (Well to less fanfare than ESRI predictions anyhow). No point in drawing too much attention to the most reliable housing price statistics in the country.
The Rating Agencies such as Fitch use Dept of Environment Statistics in their analysis of Irish RMBS. Surprisingly PTSB/ESRI did not cut the mustard with them.

To 4Q07, secondhand houses in Dublin down 16% from peak, secondhand apartments in Dublin down 14% from peak.

environ.ie/en/Publications/S … Statistics

Second Hand Property Prices in Dublin

Period House Apartment
2003Q1 323,087 290,602
2003Q2 367,314 296,722
2003Q3 350,603 293,746
2003Q4 372,910 321,882
2004Q1 362,845 317,901
2004Q2 399,536 304,281
2004Q3 382,505 320,942
2004Q4 411,439 334,152
2005Q1 402,698 328,239
2005Q2 440,520 354,078
2005Q3 430,220 359,464
2005Q4 475,430 405,302
2006Q1 472,996 414,435
2006Q2 516,589 401,779
2006Q3 549,330 394,806
2006Q4 517,865 377,641
2007Q1 516,211 388,064
2007Q2 507,544 383,234
2007Q3 489,749 372,993
2007Q4 462,806 355,475

#2

Stop trying to confuse the argument with FACTS!

We only like hearsay and conjecture here!

#3

Great figures

should be a sticky.

I may have erroneously posted that we built 86000 houses in 2006

in fact we built 93,419

between 2002 and 2006 we build 377,844 dwellings

for a population of 4 million ish

In the uk in one year for 56 million they built 200,000

environ.ie/en/Publications/StatisticsandRegularPublications/HousingStatistics/FileDownLoad,14648,en.pdf

#4

Drops are increasing at an ever increasing rate

Prices
2006Q3 549,330 394,806
2006Q4 517,865 377,641
2007Q1 516,211 388,064
2007Q2 507,544 383,234
2007Q3 489,749 372,993
2007Q4 462,806 355,475

Drops From previous quarter

2006Q3 -31465 -17165
2007Q1 -1654 +10423
2007Q2 -8667 -4830
2007Q3 -17795 -10241
2007Q4 -26943 -17518

#5

Now that we have “official” figures, how does this compare with the PTSB/ESRI figures for 2007?

#6

Any ideas why Q1 2007 prices rose - can’t be the first 07 ammendement to Stamp Duty as this didn’t happen until after the General Election?

#7

not sure but it may have been on completions of prepurchased apartments

#8

Can somebody please crunch the numbers here? I’d do it meself but I’m a bit busy in RealLife ™ today!

#9

Here’s a contribution to the donkeywork. I had made comments but lost them when posting up and re-loggin in. Tell you waht though the last two quarters extrapolate to 15% per annuam declien for flats and 18% for houses. The first two quarters in all cases are kinder and I don’t know if there’s an underlying trend there. But potentially the last two quarters could support belief of 15% per annum drops.

These figure sneed to be taken forward and correlated to ESRI but whoever does itneeds to beware that they are as far as possible comparign baskets with similar baskets eg houses, apartments, 2nd hand etc. Otherwise the witness for the prosecution could fail.

houses	diff	1/4ly change	yrly dif	yearly change

2005Q4 475,430

2006Q1 472,996 -2,434 -0.51%
2006Q2 516,589 43,593 9.22%
2006Q3 549,330 32,741 6.34%
2006Q4 517,865 -31,465 -5.73% 42,435 8.93%

2007Q1 516,211 -1,654 -0.32% 43,215 9.14%
2007Q2 507,544 -8,667 -1.68% -9,045 -1.75%
2007Q3 489,749 -17,795 -3.51% -59,581 -10.85%
2007Q4 462,806 -26,943 -5.50% -55,059 -10.63%

apartments	diff	1/4ly change	yrly dif	yearly change

2005Q4 405,302

2006Q1 414,435 9,133 2.25%
2006Q2 401,779 -12,656 -3.05%
2006Q3 394,806 -6,973 -1.74%
2006Q4 377,641 -17,165 -4.35% -27,661 -6.82%

2007Q1 388,064 10,423 2.76% -26,371 -6.36%
2007Q2 383,234 -4,830 -1.24% -18,545 -4.62%
2007Q3 372,993 -10,241 -2.67% -21,813 -5.52%
2007Q4 355,475 -17,518 -4.70% -22,166 -5.87%

Have fun with it.

#10

Good question, well observed.

Note the rise was unique to apartments, and as ewd3 notes, there was a completion issue at play [still is].

Now, remember the time. We’re a couple of months after McDowells now infamous ‘We don’t need the stamp duty cash…’ quote which grabbed every headline in the country for an extended period. The market had already stopped, which people seem to forget, and the rabbit was caught in the headlights - the blame being incorrectly apportioned to McDowell [particularly by the EA industry].

Banks at this time were still horseing out cash - as fast as they could to all and sundry - at favourable rates - less than the reported rate of inflation at that time.

HP’s have been rising at faster than trend for 11 years straight.

There’s a pause/stop.

In the same way that market’s have bottom fishers, they have mayfly anglers. These are the ones who said buy now and make 14% in 1 year. Remember apartments [New] controlled the Investor/Flipper market. This group plunged.

The sting of a dying wasp. :smiley: