When did he label it a bubble 05 or 06?. If after that, he was looking in the rear view mirror, and not predicting anything.
His book was quite good. From memory, I think he only really called the bubble in Q2 06 when his employer found they were running out of first time buyers. In fairness to him, he did not just call the bubble - he left his employer, though that may have had multiple causes.
I can’t check out his model from a blackberry, but reading the Indo article, I think there are two problems with his argument: 1) you have to assume mortgage tax relief survives four draconian budgets and 2) that rents for three bed houses in the commuter belt won’t fall below 850/month. These are far from certain.
ALERT: you have to pay 4.99E a month to access it!! 4.99E a month!!! i get my internet for 15E a month - no chance Derek.
was going to do a comparison between his calc and some other out ther (e.g. RL’s one at ronanlyons.com/2010/04/20/yo … alculator/)
website is full of UNDERLINE and BOLD type tacky font - if i didnt know i’d say it looked like one of those “get rich from home” or even worse websites, really not sure what the story is with that website.
might add him to my blog reader in any case but defo wont be paying any money for a calculator i cant even test!
Derek Brawn is right, but the spin the Indo has put on the story is wrong.
‘Now is the right time to buy!’ if, if, if…
Of course it makes sense to buy at or before the bottom of the market, but Derek doesn’t provide a guarantee that we’re there yet. Indeed, it appears that he thinks we’ve got a good few more years to go.
Indeed, from his website (comparebuy2rent.ie/about_us/index.html)
Getting tired of all of the retrospective claims of clairvoyance at this point.
To be fair, at least he’s working on the basis that people should take out mortgage at 4 times their annual income. If everybody stuck to this approximate formula, then all the houses we see priced at 500k plus must come down significantly to find a buyer.
I hope he sings this from the treetop … I am looking for some eager first time buyers to buy my house!!!
Who knows if I got together with four or five other first time buyers mabye we could afford it.
PS I’m only joking. PM me the details if you want.
Charlie fucking Weston…
Why is Charlie fucking Weston? he needs to go out more often
I love this bit from the site :
Why over egg the thing by saying dynamic? Why not just say flexible or configurable
Anyway… the site seems to suggest you can make some predictions for yourself on where you see rates etc go and from this determine if it is worthwhile or not.
Surely not worth the cash IMO as it should be possible for most people to do this sort of calculation themselves anyway… if you can’t then you shouldn’t be guessing at what way these things are going to affect your repayment capacity.
In fairness though… if CW logs on and predicts low interest rates higher house prices… higher rents and taxe reliefs to be done away with then I can well see how he came to the conclusion in the headline…
But that shouldn’t be attributed to Mr Brawn… or the site… in fact it’d be like me signing up to gmail… emailing myself that now was a great time to buy… then claiming the google were saying it was a great time to buy
You have to love the Indo though… it’s like a Cork radio host… great relief
Why would anyone buy right now? When quite clearly Irish property prices are still way to high - bring prices back down to realistic levels like the early 90’s (for example).
If people think that prices are ‘reasonable’ how are they measuring this finding - against property values in 2006/07??
Irish people should STOP buying property until prices reach bottom, instead of waiting and waiting for them to bottom out - could take years!
estate agent says buy gaffs now
stop the presses
Utter propaganda from EA’s and in Press.
I’ve also noticed hardly any so called economists are commenting on future % drops.
Unless anyone out there can show me any recent articles (say, in the last couple of months)! They must be receiving fat brown envelopes from somewhere!
When enough commentators start saying “sell it for whatever you can get, This market’s screwed for twenty years. Look at Japan.” then maybe. Just maybe.
In the meantime there are property taxes, water charges, withdrawal of tax incentives, higher taxes generally to dig a hole under current valuations.
There are still a lot of folk out there who remember 1987 and are thinking we could be on the cusp of another major turn up.
They haven’t been to Japan. And they got no end of stimulus packages.
Property cycles are long. Really long. Four years is nothing.
I do remember 1987, big hair!!
I’ve just sold a property (made profit) and moved to rented house
I’m hoping to get back ‘on ladder’ but no intentions of buying unless prices drop further
Having said that are there a lot of others doing same?? Will that have impact on ‘demand’?
Well that’s it in a nutshell, the rest is just fluff.
I think that his message is being spun by the paper. In fairness this guy seems to shoot from the hip, and I don’t think he has an agenda as such, other than to promote himself.
Well yes but that’s like buying something just because it’s on offer –for the saving like and not because you actually need or want it.
In any case renters get rent relief, so it’s not as if all the benefits are solely for mortgage holders.
Following on from his at the right price assertion he gives the example
This represents a modest enough 8.5% discount on asking. So the message is ‘now is the right time to buy (if you can get an additional discount)’. I think it’s fair to say that that has always been the case –depending on the level of discount of course.
He was on Today FM Sunday morning last –I missed most of it. But he was predicticing next year as the time to buy IIRC. Regarding people who bought at the peak, he said they weren’t wrong to buy, but were wrong with the price they paid.
In effect he is speaking a lot and really saying nothing –it’s a bit like horoscope reading.
Part of the interview has now become a sound bite for the particular program something along the lines of “it’s the same herd mentality that led people into the market that will keep them out this time” or some such.
Lastly I don’t get the logic of it being better to buy before the bottom rather than after. At least after you will know (ideally) that it has bottomed out, and should have a larger deposit therefore lower borrowings.
Bloke launching website says some stuff in the hope of getting some publicity. whoop-de-doo