Desperate Dan "Top Economist"

“Dr McLaughlin thinks the economy may be close to the bottom”

independent.ie/business/irish/top-economist-says-150000-jobs-will-go-this-year-1705216.html

Oh Danny boy! The pipes, the pipes are calling! 8DD
I never doubted you Dan! Must be nice to still be called upon to offer your opinion.

“Dr”… Was this an honourary one or did he get it on the internet?

Note the day he pops his head above the parapet: Good Friday. Lots of journalists have taken the week-end off and aren’t there to take him on.

Journalists take him on?
That would be a first!

Oh Danny Boy, Oh Danny Boy, Oh Boy!..

:angry:

The only bottom the economy is close to is his own, when he talks about the economy.

-Rd

How about one of the Journos shows Dan the 5-Year trend for BoI stock prices & asks him why anyone should trust his ability to predict the price of anything ?

My own personal opinion based on sod-all other than reading this site and observing Irish gombeen politicians and what it says in the papers about the US is that the US probably will start to recover next year. However I think the gombeenmen are fooling themselves if they think that recovery will make everything okay in Ireland. Because it isn’t just international factors lads. That merely exacerbated the problems that 15 years of FF have foisted upon us.

I think that FF thinks that the Americans are going to save us - they probably believe their own press that it was all external factors. But I think that FF’s epic-fail is still in its first third.

Taking them at their word for a moment (I know, I know) since the government have talked so much about international factors, then they must realise the biggest international factor of all, the law of comparative advantage. Surely they understand that we must make something either better or cheaper than anywhere else in the world can. At the moment, we make the same stuff everyone else can make, but at a higher price. So if the US is going to recover next year, and we want to benefit from that recovery, we need to start making stuff that the Americans will want from us. Whether that is cheap high quality computer processors or complicated software packages, we need to be in a position to supply it to them. Why doesn’t the government set up a world beating medical facility researching the cure for Cancer or AIDS or the like. Better yet, there are so many curable diseases or diseases that can be vaccinated against, but which are out of the reach of most people in the world. Why don’t we make cheap and cheerful Cholera tablets, or cut price rabies vaccinations? If nothing else, it would be better to waste 80bn having a punt at something like that than wasting 80bn on the certain loss involved in the NAMA.

johnnyskeleton gets my vote.

And again we are back to the sham that is the budget- and judging by what Leno is saying budgets to come. They are so intent on cutting spending and raising taxes to balance the books that no provision is being made to deliver jobs and growth. In fact, government are banking on collecting revenue which, as the real economy declines, may never materialize. Its like driving a train in two directions at once; it will come apart at the centre.

More like defrauding the taxpayer for the benefit of vested interests. That’s the metaphor I would use anyway.

But is it a Governments role to create jobs? Our economy is supposed to be based upon, and exist within, the globalised free market model. Have we now abandoned that for something else?

Until recently it has been up to the fabled awn-trupp-inners and “investors” amongst us to create jobs and “wealth” has it not? However awn-trupp-inners and investors require access to credit in order to initiate business activity. But as we also know, easy access to credit is what caused the scale of the domestic and global recessions in the first place.

So what to do? Attempt to recreate the conditions which which caused the initial collapse? That seems to be what has been decided upon through an attempt at shoring up a bankrupt banking system through a taxpayer sponsored mass-assumption of over inflated assets. So when the banks have been let off the hook and the debts have been assumed by the people through penal taxation levels and a lifetimes debt slavery, who is going to enter a bank seeking the credit to start a business? In the absence of a bubble scenario what debt-laden person wishes to assume further debt? And what bank will provide the necessary credit in a recessionary environment where the risk of business failure has gone through the roof? Or to a negative equitied unemployed wannabe awn-trupp-inner?

IMO there is no recovery coming - there is only a slow constant decline in living standards to a level well below the illusory levels that many in this country have become used to. 2006 is gone and its not coming back.

It’s not a government’s role to brink a country to the brink of bankruptcy either, nor is it a government’s role to buy up all the bad debts of the banking system. So all things considered, creating jobs (or more importantly encouraging the creation of jobs) is no worse a policy for the government to pursue.

But without a massive change in the economic structure of the country it would seem pretty impossible for the Government to create any jobs other than through a further increase in the public sector.

Our economy relies on private initiative. Yet that private initiative (with Government assistance) seems to have succeeded only in misallocating resources to the extent that we are now facing bankruptcy. The Government may of course attempt to foster the circumstances which allows private enterprise to flourish - but in a recessionary environment where credit has all but disappeared that does not look like it would be particularly succesful.

IMO the only positive that the Government can achieve in this regard at this point in time would be to begin to lay the foundations which may allow the economy begin to flourish in about ten to fifteen years time - when we will be poor again and possibly ready to retake our place at the global dinner table. But of course, that may require unpopular measures and that is a highly unlikely scenario in a liberal democracy where the spectre of a general election (popularity contest) looms large over the body politic every few years.

I agree with the above quoted.

And to extrapolate further, the reason we are facing into a slow descent into oblivion would appear to be the belief that unlimited economic growth is an automatic positive. It seems that the growth we have experienced over the past number of years has actually been so detrimental as to have possibly detroyed the country economically for the forseeable future.

Yet it is the stated objective of both Government and the wider business community to get back to growth at any cost asap through shoring up the banking system with a view to getting them shovelling credit back out into the economy…