The reliance on international buyers for houses over 3m in Dublin is significant.
It must be +75% of deals (at least 50% in D4 & D6 and much higher outside of this).
There is quite a gap between the ‘international price’ and the ‘local price’
The recent sale of The Priory in Monkstown is a good example (discusssed in the pin).
Local agent(s) had secured a buyer after a long process to pay c. 3m for The Priory.
The owner found an overseas buyer who paid +1m more.
Front page property section article in the Indo calling out to overseas buyers to come in ‘Superhomes’
independent.ie/lifestyle/mot … 33382.html
The danger for ‘international buyers’ is making sure they avoid ‘Superhomes’ that were only ‘super’ in the era of developers (i.e. no taste), but outside of that, have been in locations or sites that are in long-term decline for which the ‘locals’ may not return to when they recover (eventually).
There has been a recent raft of +3m asking prices houses which are probably 1-1.5m above the ‘local price’:
- Hendre St Georges Avenue Killiney (almost no local buyers for homes this far out for over 2m)
- Paddock Wood Killiney (receiver fire sale so there is no messing over price - reflects ‘local price’)
- Stanford House, Loughgall, Aldington, Lismallon all in Foxrock (same comment as per Killiney above)
- The Albany in Albany Avenue Monkstown (not the more impressive ‘Albany House’ two doors down)
- Churchtown House, Weston Park, Dundrum (locals bought for 2m - check out Harlech which is pitched at locals only)
- Lois an Uisce in Blackrock (hard house to sell to locals given the road positioning)
When overseas buyers turn sellers (there have been a few cases already), they get a surprise if another international buyer cannot be found to take them out.
The wait for the ‘locals’ could be a long one (as pointed out by an economist who understands Ireland’s finances)
Thanks for your input. Good to see new blood around here injecting new thinking.
Do not underestimate the number of Irish in the City alone who can buy a very large pied-a-terre or country house. These are buyers who laughed from afar during the bubble as they were out handbagged and wristwatched by turbo robo-paddy and now are softly buying the retirement pad of base for the secondary schooling of the kids.
The international buyer can mop a lot of property but it could be argued those who can, have and the pool of buyers will reduce.
A few agents have ‘mandates’ from rich uk buyers.
UK passport holders have a very efficient tax position in Ireland.
The agents are trying to get them to pay up for 2nd grade stuff.
This is where the International vs. Local gap is largest.
One such buyer showed me the valuation report he was given.
It justified 5m for a property which was being touted locally for +3m.
Hence the recent spate of very high asking on grade 2/3 trophy homes.
I agree that there is good City money.
However when I do my own rough tot on the +2.5m register …
… Almost two thirds is pure international.
Interesting times indeed !
+1 Mantissa. There’s still a lot of money floating around Ireland and Irish buyers at this level. Let’s not forget the whole property bubble was a zero sum game; for every developer who bought an acre for multiple millions (and has now defaulted) there was a canny vendor who took that cash (be they farmers in Mullingar, or former hoteliers in Dublin)!
I would believe SOME of what EAs would say about foreign buyers. In the small number of big-cash transactions, it is entirely possible that some of them are foreign buyers. The EAs claim they are coming here for the quality of life and good schools.
What I don’t believe is that there are many of them still around. With the current populist political posturing that demonises people with 1) income of more than 100,000 2) homes worth more than one million or 3) children in private schools, nobody will feel comfortable “investing” (i.e. sinking their money) in property right now.
Let’s watch what sops Fine Gael will throw to Labour in the budget next week. Also look at falling PISA ratings for Irish schools (a bad thing) and rises in pupil-teacher ratios in private schools (also a bad thing for inward transferees).
I agree with you Mantissa - there is ‘hype’ by EAs regarding foreign cash.
There are not that many deals over c. 2.5m in Dublin so you can check them.
By my count, the last five c. 3m deals to close in SCD Dublin are International buyers (not ex-pats).
Cloneevin (2.9m), Priory Monkstown (£GBP3.5m), 72 Park Avenue (3m), two off-market in Ailesbury/Shrewsbury triangle.
Not sure re Temple Gardens (c. 3m and close to closing).
There is still local money at this end like Springfield (2.9m) or ex-pat money like Coolbawn (2.6m), but is in a minority.
Below 2m, there is much more local bidding at work.
I detect a push by EAs to get International buyers to pay more and to go for weaker ‘trophy’ properties.
Deepwell is still quoting 10m with newpaper references to 40m valuation at peak (not unless Tesco could convert it).
Neighbouring Lois an Uisce (50% of size and plot of Deepwell) can’t get a serious bid over 2m.
As an Irish tax payer I should cheer them on (if the Internationals don’t take them, we are picking up the tab)
Discreet enquiry … however not always successful, hence my list is incomplete
Given the small sample sizes as well, could be misleading?
By way of follow up:
Top 10 2013 sales in SCD in 2013 by my reckoning:
- Walford 14.0m (unknown)
- Glenvar 5.3m (Irish)
- Gortanore 5.1m (International)
#18 Ailesbury 4.5m (International)
- The Priory £3.5m (International)
- Ashurst +4m (International)
#23 Temple Gardens +3.5m (unknown)
#72 Park Avenue +3m (International)
- Springfield 2.9m (Irish)
- Cloneevin, Killiney 2.9m (International)
Interesting - 6/8 known buyers are international?
I *think *I know who bought Walford.
In which case, they are Irish.
Great research, Observer.
These are ranked in order of value. Is it also possible to stack them in chronological order? A sample of 10 is clearly too small to infer a trend but I wonder if international activity is slowing down or accelerating.
I suspect it is correct - but define “international”. Are most not Irish ex-pats done good?
Mantissa - I have various sources and am pretty sure (some are EAs)
Cheeky - these are non Irish passport holders (Coolbawn which would have been #11, would have been classed as an ex-Pat buyer - Rory Goodson)
Hope this helps
Interesting in yesterday’s budget that we did not see any increase in property taxes at the higher end.
Many Irish personal taxes are progressive (rates increase for high amounts) - but not property (yet).
I think the high reliance on international buyers for higher-end real estate in Ireland is part of this.
With a 4-way split between FG, FF, SF and Independents, I’m not sure that this is really sustainable.
I would expect the property tax rates to rise materially, at least for +2m homes.
(and like other Irish taxes, they will probably widen the net to bring 300k houses into this bracket eventually!)
Observer, it seems you can update your rankings. Milverton just made the Top 10 at auction today.