Do the Nama property sums add up? -> sbpost.ie/newsfeatures/do-th … 44468.html
I might aswell put in my estimates here:
77 bn loans.
9 bn rolled-up interest.
From the Zoe case, it appears that the liquidation value of non-performing loans is 25%.
68 - (680.6) = 27.2
(680.6) = 40.8 * 0.25 = 10.2
Assuming none of the performing loans go bad, are at least 100% LTV, and are at market price, total asset value = 37.4 bn
Loss of 25+ bn coming up…
I encourage others to come up with their figures and method. I am particularly looking forward to mr_anderson’s (for an expert view) and TWG’s (for a precise figure to two decimal places…).
I could sit down and waste my time doing an acedemic excercise explaining the defects in the NAMA figures which has been done quite well by YM above but the simple answer is
Do they feck!
Edit: -of course nobody important is going to read that article or any like it-
For the record, Richard Curran’s estimate is:
Come on down TWG we are still waiting for your difinitive estimate!
This for me is where NAMA should be attacked first and foremost.
The people who we are forced to trust to fix the situation are the only ones who have access to the information required to formulate the plan. Ok, there are notional data protection issues, but given that due to the scale of the problem the government has overridden all other laws including constitutional and european laws, I think violating data protection in the public interest is justified. If nothing else, why can’t they ask that any bank & developer who wishes the loans to be transferred to NAMA should sign a waiver of their data protection rights.
It might also be said that there are commercial sensitivity issues. Well, yes there are. Normally commercially sensitive means that if you release the information it could force people to pay a lesser sum than they would otherwise have paid. Well, we as the taxpayers demand that commercially sensitive information so that we can see what we are buying.
Look at all the examples of development land being cut 50-90%. Can anyone point to drops less than this for some field in Roscommon?
Do the NAMA sums add up? How the fuck are we supposed to know when the people who do know have an interest in keeping it secret.