Doe: House prices plunge 20pc in one year

herald.ie/national-news/city-news/house-prices-plunge-20pc-in-one-year-1740196.html

And that is as close to official as you get seeing as outright purchases are not included in DoE stats.

Stats SS HERE ( not fully updated with Q4 yet had to add from HERE)

Year and National Dublin
Quarter € €
2005Q4 287,134 361,242
2006Q1 294,580 390,629
2006Q2 308,302 397,337
2006Q3 309,206 425,925
2006Q4 313,087 419,330
2007Q1 320,969 417,800
2007Q2 331,947 426,900
2007Q3 319,214 412,324
2007Q4 314,333 402,346
2008Q1 311,113 397,697
2008Q2 313,678 390,544
2008Q3 301,680 347,233
2008Q4 282,023 329,625

Are we accepting the DOE figures as the most accurate we can get? They are actual sales prices and they don’t seem to bad at fiddling with them.

They are the best available. They are too slow ( Oct-Dec 08 in May 09 :frowning: ) and transactions not involving a mortgage are excluded . Revenue has all of them .

their speed of analysis should pick up when then quantity of houses being sold slows down …wait a minute…

One other thing I noticed was the house completions on page 4 of 16!
The percentage of total house completions accounted for by Social Housing went from 5.6% to 13.1% in the space of two years (2006 - 2008)!
I wonder were the Government as productive in the years ( 2004 - 2006) :laughing:

Also I see we no longer publish the average income of the borrowers :nin

What I can’t understand is why the Doe doesn’t use data collected by the Revenue, its far more comprehensive. Even now they (Doe) are working on a national house price index in conjunction with the CSO. Based on data provided by those paragons of virtue and transparency the Banksters. :frowning:

Tables 10 and 11

Housing Loans Approved by Quarter .

The number of houses sold to arrive at those price stats could not exceed the number of loan approvals which is itself much higher than the number of loan drawdowns @ 29,586 for the YEAR

The number of Approvals in Q4 is tiny, only 4200

Period New Second-hand Houses Tots Number Value €m Number Value €m Number Value €m

2006 53,895 13994.7 60,698 17387.5 114,593 31382.2
2007 40,497 10560.4 48,250 13503.7 88,747 24064.1
2008 26,293 6625.2 29,586 8515.0 55,879 15140.2

2006
Q1 14,604 3457.4 16,899 4254.0 31,503 7711.5
Q2 16,814 4187.0 18,404 4904.6 35,218 9091.6
Q3 11,148 3142.9 13,691 4418.5 24,839 7561.5
Q4 11,329 3207.4 11,704 3810.3 23,033 7017.7

2007
Q1 12,132 3065.0 12,466 3382.2 24,598 6447.2
Q2 11,219 2964.1 13,996 3828.0 25,215 6792.1
Q3 8,949 2358.8 11,345 3244.7 20,294 5603.5
Q4 8,197 2172.5 10,443 3048.8 18,640 5221.3

2008
Q1 6,682 1807.9 8,676 2610.9 15,358 4418.8
Q2 9,123 2356.3 10,700 3173.2 19,823 5529.5
Q3 6,287 1486.6 6,342 1698.9 12,629 3185.5
Q4 4,201 974.4 3,868 1032.0 8,069 2006.4

A LOAN is disbursed way after approval, say 6 months average . The Loans approved in Q2 ( 9123) turned into 3932 DRAWDOWNS in Q4 , we are losing over 50% of apporvals by drawdown meaning that only about 10,000 MORTGAGES will be taken out to buy a new home in 2009 by my reckoning, possibly less .

Housing Loans Drawn Down by Quarter .

2007 46,588 11649.5 37,698 10807.4 84,286 22456.8
2008 24,467 6454.5 29,224 8053.8 53,691 14508.3

2007
Q1 9,925 2279.5 11,074 3054.5 20,999 5333.9
Q2 12,579 3115.5 9,528 2684.2 22,107 5799.7
Q3 12,663 3252.1 9,244 2761.5 21,907 6013.6
Q4 11,421 3002.4 7,852 2307.2 19,273 5309.6

2008
Q1 8,089 2222.4 5,231 1549.3 13,320 3771.7
Q2 6,670 1748.7 10,043 2909.7 16,713 4658.4
Q3 5,776 1490.6 8,456 2233.8 14,232 3724.4
Q4 3,932 992.8 5,494 1361.0 9,426 2353.8

Not a friggin surprise to anyone who’s been hangin around this web site for the last few years.

If we base future predictions upon accuracy of past predictions. I want to know what the wise guys are saying now.

Who has been consistantly right with predictions? How did they come to their predictions (to ensure finger in air prophets are not taken too seriously.)

I think you answered your own question.

Why would you rely on the real figures?
They could end up showing anything.

Much better to go with someones opinion.

Sure we’d never have had the Celtic Tiger if everyone had gotten hung up on figures and such.

-Rd