DoF Property Price predictions/ IT 20% gap in selling/asking

Don’t know if this has been covered courtesy of Gavin Sheridan at

“In the November 2009 submission of the Anglo restructuring plan by the DoF their base plan was for prices to continue falling in 2009, 2010 and 2011 before stabilising in 2012 and which in its base plan saw a 47% average (69% worst case should be 62%) peak to trough fall (and to September last year prices were only 25% off peak – national Permanent TSB HPI).”

2.4.1 Main macroeconomic assumptions
(40) The submitted restructuring plan covers a period from 2010 to 2014. The plan provides
base and adverse case economic forecasts for the three regions (Ireland, UK and US).
(41) The base case assumptions for Ireland show a relatively severe economic scenario for the
forecast period18. It hinges among others the following forecasts:
(i) Irish real GDP growth is forecast to be negative in 2009 (-9%) and in 2010
(-2.6%). The Irish recession is forecast to be over in 2011, with economic
growth building to an annual rate of 2.6% by 2013;
(ii) Irish house prices and property capital value indices are forecast to fall by
between approximately 15% and 19% in 2009; for house prices this is a
decline significantly in excess of that experienced in 2008 while for other
property this is a lower fall than in 2008. Further property value declines are
forecast, at a lower rate, in 2010 and 2011. Values are forecast to be stable or
grow from 2012 onwards. The peak to trough falls in the Ireland base case
range between 29% and 62%, averaging a decline of 47%. … 3.2010.pdf

Also on IT Thursdays edition

Gap in asking/selling prices of ‘up to 20%’ … 55173.html