Now Dr Dan is telling us that 4% should be the top of the interest rate cycle.
Why is it that Dan, Austin, Jim et. all are given the platform to “inform us” on the direction of interest rates?
Does the UK take its cue on rates from spokespersons at Barclays or HSBC? No, because they do not set rates, the Bank of England do.
If the Irish public listened directly to Jean-Claude Trichet and others at the ECB, they would have a far better understanding as to the reasons why rates have risen to this point, and why they are to rise further.
Do people really think that the ECB really care how hard interest rate rises are on the people of Ireland ? There are 80 million Germans and 4.5 million Irish. Out of a Eurozone population of what 400 million plus I think Ireland can forget any softening of interest rate rises.
" The needs of the many outway the needs of the few " Leonard Nimoy
Good point and who is to blame, the MEDIA!
German unemployment has now dipped below the 4m mark for the first time in over 4 years. The steadily falling unemployment there can only instill confidence in the domestic economy which will inevitably put upward pressure on interest rates. Don’t bet on a 4% “done and dusted” scenario. With the strong momentum in the German economy and M3 rates rising fast it just might have a bit to go yet.
4 is sure, 4.25-probable, 4.5-possible. Beyond this and more importantly beyond 12 months from now is simply far too difficult to call even for the ‘experts’.
Some speculation here about interest rates
I think the dollar is just above a major threshold at the moment and if it falls below this it could tumble quickly which could cause instability.
It seems to be holding fairly steady around the 1.36 euro mark for the past week
To be honest, I don’t think the ECB care about the â‚¬/$ exchange rate. The US market isn’t really all that big a deal for most European economies. A worthless dollar could also speed up a global switch from petrodollars to petroeuros, which would suit Europe fine.
Anglocentric commentators in Ireland and Britain think it’s important, but I doubt Trichet loses much sleep over it.
I don’t imagine Mr. Trichet is a GAA player, but consider a hurler has to anticpate where the ball is going, not where it is now, because by the time it gets where he wants to hit it, it’ll be too late to swing. Likewise for the ECB the trend is still upwards and they will keep rising until something breaks, just like all central bankers do.
If rates keep rising and prices keep falling I think this commentary would be apt.
( A la BjÃ¸rge Lillelien, youtube.com/watch?v=wqupNjswVnQ )
“Dan McLaughlin, Jim Power, Geoff Tucker, Ken McDonald, Austin Hughes!!! Bertie Ahern. Can you hear me Bertie Ahern? Your boys took one hell of a beating. Your boys took one hell of a beating.”
I pasted it from the Bloomberg system rather than the Bloomberg website. Couldn’t find it in Google news, it might show up later.
Here you go, it’s included near the bottom of this article
This new data coming from the states is significant as it will facilitate a more orderly depreciation of the dollar which is exactly what all the major central banks would prefer.The feds hands are tied with regard to lowering their rates as inflation is still a significant threat esp. the strong oil price.
This will give Trichet a free reign to keep jacking up euro rates and this spells big trouble for us.
It’s back down into the bunkers time again only this time the hatch will have to be kept firmly closed indefinitely.
Talk about a poison chalice for who ever wins the forthcoming election.
To be honest I hope its FF again as FG and Labour just scare me with their utter lack of understanding of economics and FF would never shut up with the “we told you so’s” if th FG muppets get voted in and the economy crashes which I cannot foresee not happening at this point.
4WIW I really don’t think politicians “run the country” and we’d probably be fine without any of them.
Between the civil service and a multitude of VIs things get done one way or another.
The US has probably got it right by employing actors for their politicians. At least they look good on TV.
TBH I think FG & LAbour will be fine, I jsut think they have an eleciotn to win and are telling people, like most of the other parties want they want to hear. Plenty of focus groups have lead to this for the parties. They are working their niche markets and hoping to knit them altoghter to get a good return on polling day (it should be days over the weekend!!! Thanks Bertie the FUDGE)
Yes. Of course that is exaclty true. Politicians are not particularly good at anything but drawing things on and on …