Dublin 3 & 5 -Opinions on future price drops next 12-18Mths

Hi Pinsters

Just wondering what opinions are with regards future % drops in Dublin 3 and 5 areas in the next 12-18 Months.
A 10-15% drop in the past year or so ‘appears’ to be a baseline (from my own tracking of the local market), and the drops have certainly been assisted by a strong ‘reality check’ adjustment in asking prices (For those who sensibly took it onboard) since approx April by local EA’s after the first Allstop auction.

Happily I have held out now on buying anything for C.3 years since selling a previous house out in commuter belt land, and it has obviously been the correct decision (Stamp reduced since, ongoing drop in property values means I’ll get more bang for my buck,etc,etc).

Ideally I’m holding out for a 3-4 bed (Doer-upper) with a decent garden /rear access garage potential,etc).
This year has certainly seen a few of this type of property come into my target range, and tracking Asking prices V’s latest offers/closing prices with local agents appears to now demonstrate that a 3 bed doer-upper in the Killester and Clontrarf areas can be picked up for just over €300k (Allowing for an average €50-100k additional required for modernisation,etc) V’s asking prices in the region €365-€395k.
Most of these are primarily Executor sales and I imagine these will be in plentiful supply for the foreseeable future in the D3 area in particular (as many are from original residents who bought these new in circa 1930’s-1940’s).
Many of the executor sales now appear to be priced to sell, and seem to be going sale agreed quite quickly now, and hence this market price range/ D3/D5 market is quite competitive.

What do Pinsters see as a sensible approach to buying into this particular area in the next year or so with regards future price drops/ sub €300k/€400k end being quite competitive,etc.

There won’t be any sudden collapse; sellers will continue to live in denial and there won’t be any influx of decent family homes coming onto the market in Dublin anytime soon. From now to 18 months time, I would expect 12% in price drops in areas close to the city centre. Remember that the Dublin market has fallen hardest and going from what I see on here (people seem to be increasingly prodding the market), I think there might be a little bit of stickiness at prices below current levels. That’s not to say I am bullish on the property market. I just think that we’re looking at a ten year long bust. The good news for people hoping to catch the bottom is that we’re already 5 years into the crash.

It will be a slow burn in these parts. Nothing dramatic.
12-20% I reckon.
Price drops wont stop there though.

Hi Gleo,

It depends on what you mean by Dublin 3. It is is a large area. it includes East Wall, Fairview, Marino and Clontarf. While there are 2 and 3- bed houses in East Wall and Fairview/Marino that you could get at E300K or below now depending on condition, there are not very few houses in Clontarf with all the requirements you’ve outlined (3/4 bed, garden, garage and potential) asking around E395K with a rough sale price of E300K.
Or iff there are I haven’t seen them.The asking price range is more 500/600 still. In my view.

Voila-380k myhome.ie/residential/brochu … -3/1545770
385k myhome.ie/residential/brochu … -3/1392643

or the best one a four bed on the Howth Road for 375k:

myhome.ie/residential/brochu … rf/1491775

Thanks Julio…
I thought the first and second ones you provided were a bit on the small side for what Gleo is looking for, that’s just my own thoughts on what he wants.
The third one now is more in line with what he is looking for, I’d day. However it is on a very busy road and has a tiny back garden, not really in proportion to the size of the house- and that is why in my view it is at an asking price much lower than the house on either side of it which were looking for over 100K more each.

Am wondering same but about different areas in Dublin. Does anyone have an opinion about whether buying beats renting right now? May seem stupid question when everyone sees massive price drops in the future but rent money goes down the drain as well, and if the difference is very very little, ie price drop = rent paid, am tempted to buy.

However, of course if interest rates on the way up and the ass is about to fall out of the market altogether then… obvious don’t buy answer, again. Aaaagh I want to buy…

Buying doesn’t beat renting right now. If you buy, you are losing money because of both the interest you are paying on the mortgage and the depreciation in value of the house. It’s a double whammy. Rent for another two or three years, then see where the market is.

Scrambler - I am in the same boat as you. The average price drop in the last Allsop auction was 68%. Morgan Kelly predicted an 80% drop for some of the most over inflated properties. Difficult to know how much lower it goes, if you convert some of the current Euro prices back to punts you can see how far back prices have really fallen, especially for places needing work.

If you think there is only another 12% or so to go it doesn’t sound a lot but if it was selling for 1mm, it is now at 320k, a further drop of 12% from original value is 200k.

Seems to me like a big stretch to get the house down to 200k to be honest unless the following happens:
Interest rates go up massively: I can see them going up as Eurozone GDP is 2.5% and Eurozone inflation is 1.6% in the core goods basket and 2.7% in the full basket. So they go up but not massively. The Euro is already at 1.45$, any further interest rate hikes would further strengthen the Euro and dampen German exports. So the core eurozone economy would cool quickly
Repossesions: The arrears are now huge in the Banks mortgage books, but there has been very little appetite to reposess and I think this will continue.
Lending: Can’t get any worse, there’s very little credit out there.
Taxes: Yes, has to be more to come. Every year I lose about 200 quid a month through new taxes.
(200 quid a month would pay 45,000 euro mortgage @ 3.7% over 30yrs) So you can see the big effect of taxes straight away.
Unemployment: Can it get any worse?
Public sector pay: Has to go lower, but if you do this you will blow up the mortgage arrears stats.

So I guess more taxes and some small amount of interest rate hikes will do some more damage.

What do you guys think?

Our esteemed fellows :smiling_imp: in the Central Bank predicted a 13.5% fall in house prices this year and 14% next year. Hang on in there before buying, I think we will finish up back at end 1999 to early 2000ish prices before they stabilise.Was stunned to see a 4 bed on the Howth Road only looking for 375k when up to recently they were asking for 600k ish. Still not at value though until they are in the 250k to 300k range.Another two years of drip feeding drops!

I was surprised to see this myself. At last someone is getting sorta realistic in Clontarf. I agree, keep waiting and you will pick up something like this for a lot less in the next 2 years. Reality is slowly dawning - a house is only worth what the market will pay - even in Clontarf!

I have seen the one on the Howth Road and it ticks a lot of boxes but it is on a busy road and has only a courtyard of garden.

Some other examples of value coming into Killester/Clontarf area:

I viewed this one in Furry Park that went sale agreed only last week, ticked most of the boxes but I am not mad about that particular road as its a bit of a rat run between the Howth Road and Vernon Avenue.- it was asking €365k and closed quite quickly at circa €300k a day or two after I viewed it it with Gunnes. Reasonably good value I thought.
myhome.ie/residential/brochu … -5/1544239

Another example: 3 Vernon Park,Clontarf
myhome.ie/residential/brochu … -3/1443102
at €395k and currently hovering at offers about 55k below asking when I viewed it recently. The garden arrangement is smaller than the photos would have you believe. A doer-upper but again pricing seems to becoming into the right area, but still above what I’d be willing to pay for a doer-upper in D3/D5.

Don’t these kind of statistics leave the buying option very very scary? This in itself will bring prices down, the Fear Factor. Also, someone mentioned to me today that they had their house valued at 2 Million some years ago in Rathgar and that was typical price then for those houses. One sold or went sale agreed, (needs work) yest or day before for 360K! 8DD Coming down or what…
Thanks for reply