Dublin property prices are falling again


#2

I’ve also checked prices outside of Dublin

Overall, all residential in Ireland also appears to have peaked, but the fall so far is smaller

Ireland- all residential
Peak: Oct 2018
Now: As of Jan 2019 prices have fallen back -0.8%, with 3 consecutive monthly falls

Figures for Ireland - all residential - excluding Dublin are still increasing, however


#3

If I remember correctly Kilkenny and Tipperary were the last counties to peak the last time.


#4

But aren’t the rents at all time high yielding 6-7%, will rents fall, a lot?


#5

From many threads on such trends discussed here in the past, in many instances I think rents trailed house prices by about a year.

Obviously there’s many different factors and inputs that define each market but if supply commissioned during the price upswing in 2014/15 is finally meeting demand then it seems logical that that feeds through.


#6

Yields matter and drive demand, but it also does seem logical that while the supply is still very low the demand has a lot more power over it than the other way around


#7

Yields in Ireland didn’t matter a decade ago when credit was driving up prices while supply grew.

As I said there are many factors at play in every instance but for now I wouldn’t be surprised if we see supply meeting demand. I left Ireland in 2015 but on visits back I can see projects in Dublin that I was involved in the initial development phase are finally hitting the market and there was plenty more projects in the pipeline.


#8

Good of you seeing as most of us live there. :smiley:

Ahh. Right,

Shall we call this moment “The Jackals Climax” as distinct from 2Packs bottom then. ?? :nin


#9

Property prices have certainly fallen at the trader upper level. A significant portion of the glut of people wanting to trade up has probably cleared reducing the frenzy. I wonder whether sellers will adjust to the new situation.


#10

That’s what I’m noticing, albeit based on a small sample, so anecdotal. Seeing some asking price drops in the €800k-€900k category and properties sitting on market for quite a while.

Why do you think there was a glut of people wanting to trade up? Are we talking about lack of credit availability and seized-up market c. 2008-2012? Has it really taken seven years for that to ease out?

Market still seems quite hot at the first time buyer level.


#11

#12

We’re talking a 12 year period here from peak to trough to peak. That seems normal, typical cycle for property give or take a year.

Unless people think we can have an un-dead cat bounce what next? :hushed:


#13

I’m actively looking in the DL-R area of Dublin at the moment in the Trading up type range. Definitely something is afoot. A lot of houses which are struggling to attract offers or to close. Quite a lot of price drops too. That being said - if something is of a good quality in a good location it can achieve prices of 5-10% above asking quite quickly.

I would say houses that require a reasonable amount of work are the slowest to move. Perhaps that reflects the fact that buyers know that doing that work is quite difficult now due to the building industry operating at capacity.

Also - I would say that a lot of the traditional Semi-D type houses from the 50’s, 60’s, 70’s etc don’t have the sort of open-plan kitchen layout that the market really likes now. Houses that have extended or renovated to include that kind of detail seem to move very quickly.


#14

Like it says on the tin…


#15

Not sure if this is the right thread, anyways:
I remortgaged the house in April 2016 (switched bank, and needed some 20K extra after renovation/extension work).
At the time, the property got valued at 470K, with a 75% LTV
Checked my mortgage account (Ulsterbank) today, and the bank has added a
“HPI valuation amount”, which values the gaff at 555K - so 18% up in 3 years. So LTV now down to 56%. No idea how UB comes up with that valuation, but I’ll keep an eye on it to see if this moves further, one way or the other.


#16

Can only be a data drop from the Property register linked to address


#17

Did you not have an EA come out and do a valuation as part of the switch?


#18

CSO Feb 2019

https://www.cso.ie/en/releasesandpublications/ep/p-rppi/residentialpropertypriceindexfebruary2019/

Dublin - houses
Peak: Oct 2018
Feb 2019: +0.2% increase and +1.1% annual
As of Feb 2019 prices have fallen back -2.5%

Dublin - apartments
Peak: Sep 2018
Feb 2019: -1.2% decrease but +1.8% annual
As of Feb 2019 prices have fallen back -2.9%, with 5 consecutive monthly falls

Dublin - all residential
Peak: Oct 2018
Feb 2019: -0.1% decrease but +1.4% annual
Now: As of Feb 2019 prices have fallen back -2.5%, with 4 consecutive monthly falls


#19

CSO Mar 2019

https://www.cso.ie/en/releasesandpublications/ep/p-rppi/residentialpropertypriceindexmarch2019/

Dublin - houses
Peak: Oct 2018
Mar 2019: -0.5% decrease but +0.7% annual
As of Mar 2019 prices have fallen back -2.8%

Dublin - apartments
Peak: Sep 2018
Mar 2019: +0.1% increase and +2.5% annual
As of Mar 2019 prices have fallen back -2.7%

Dublin - all residential
Peak: Oct 2018
Mar 2019: -0.3% decrease but +1.2% annual
As of Mar 2019 prices have fallen back -2.7%


#20

… or see the Pretty Chart.


#21

The Irish Times have reported that Savills is scaling back its operations " to concentrate on the high end of the market".
What do other pinsters make if this? Could this be a canary in the coalmine?
I seem to remember other estate agents of note closing branches at the end of the last boom.