Dublin property prices are falling again


#62

Does this not look like equilibrium? Ignoring external influences…


#63

Does the housing market have equilibria? I don’t know, I’m just wondering out loud. Morgan Kelly certainly seemed to be of the opinion that boom / bust cycles were the norm rather than the exception. One reason to suspect that a stable balance between supply and demand could be tricky is the effect on investors when capital gains dry up.


#64

Agreed, like a pendulum at the top of the arc. How many degrees that arc describes is what we want to limit.


#65

I think in the last boom/bust we had speculation on increasing house prices - there was a naive view that they had to keep rising. Speculation is confidence based - once the tide started to turn everyone ran back to the beach and prices tanked. This time around there have been lessons learned - professional speculators got in and out very quickly. Once price increases slowed they got out . Professional outfits (like REITs) who have invested in property for rental purposes will not be as concerned about the value of the underlying asset (unless they are leveraged or using the value of the asset to obtain leverage) but their more naive investors might be.

On that basis I don’t think there will be a rush to the exit and a consequent massive price crash. I do think there could be a price fall due to affordability if we have either an economic downturn or an increase in interest rates. The current 330k median price for a house in Dublin is (just) sustainable in the current (rosy) economic climate - all the indicators are that this will come to an end soon. The biggest impact of a downturn will be on rents - people are a lot more mobile than apartments. If you haven’t got a job or your hours are cut you won’t be able to afford to live in Dublin and you will be off to where the jobs are or at least where it’s cheap to live. Just look at all the young people milling around town - none of them (Irish or foreign) have roots so deep here that they couldn’t up and leave. House prices will probably slip downwards and sales will dry up. The MyHome report shows how little activity there is above somewhere in the 4-500k range. There are very few people coming into the market that can fund anything above that. Trying to sell an ‘ordinary’ house (that got 1m in the boom) for anything over 500k is very difficult - and that’s where the crash has already happened.


#66

There’s an unexpected uptick in Dublin prices in this morning’s release of the CSO Residential Property Price Index. It’s a tiny increase (and the latest two months’ figures are always provisional), but it had been falling for seven months in a row.


#67

CSO May 2019

https://www.cso.ie/en/releasesandpublications/ep/p-rppi/residentialpropertypriceindexmay2019/

Dublin - houses
Peak: Oct 2018
May 2019: +0.7% increase and +0.4% annual
As of May 2019 prices have fallen back -2.6%

Dublin - apartments
Peak: Sep 2018
May 2019: +0.4% increase and +0.8% annual
As of May 2019 prices have fallen back -2.2%

Dublin - all residential
Peak: Oct 2018
May 2019: 0.8% change and +0.6% annual
As of May 2019 prices have fallen back -2.2%


#68

A tortured and disjointed article in the Irish Times:

Prices are going down. 20% drop in sales of houses over €500k this year. CB lending limits are to blame (even though they haven’t changed). Somehow this also has something to do with 9,000 square foot Victorian mansions and the pictured multi-million pile in Temple Gardens. And everything will go back up after Brexit. In fact it’s already happening according to one deeply entrenched vested interest.

Get them while they’re hot! :sick_20:


#70

Are we seeing a slow shift from denial to fear?


#71

Soft landing?


#72

#73

“…according to a survey of estate agents, chartered surveyors and auctioneers carried out by the Central Bank”.

Meanwhile, in the annual survey of turkeys’ outlook on Christmas …


#74

A delivery of mothballs probably on the cards for this place…falling prices will delay it even further…


#75

‘survey of estate agents, chartered surveyors and auctioneers’

Even the shills, lackeys and spoofers see a fall?

Maybe it will be a soft landing…


#76

Yes, "best not talk down the market " and get our green jersey’s on :grinning:


#77

HiFi posted

A delivery of mothballs probably on the cards for this place…falling prices will delay it even further…

Independent.ie

Cherrywood facing ‘severe delays’ over €62m funding gap - Independent.ie

Is the biggest risk here that the communal or infrastructural elements of the development will be ‘delayed’ and we will end up with the housing units and nothing else. There’s plenty of pressure to deliver housing and it wouldn’t surprise me to start to hear the lobbying along the lines of 'its not perfect but it’s better than having people on the streets". I certainly wouldn’t be looking to buy off the plans here.


#78

As far as i know they built the communal elements first and are no working on the housing units.


#79

The whole Lehaunstown/Cherrywood area is now frankly bizarre. You can walk down Lehaunstown Road from Brennanstown Road and immediately enter the land that time forgot.

You walk into what appears to be countryside on a road that passes then ancient Tully Church and graveyard ruins and continues past a Luas Station that has absolutely no development beside it (it is in the middle of fields essentially) and you can continue on foot past the derelict Lehaunstown House and over the M50 on a flyover to a wood on a hill there.

And bizarrely there are large roads here and there among the fields that have been completed but lead to full stops and haven’t been opened yet as they go nowhere. Also there is a large completed public park in the middle of all this but it isn’t open to the public yet either.

So a lot of infrastructure is in place but no houses, It is incredible that absolutely no houses have been started in this massive area (there seems to be hundreds of acres of land in total there). I haven’t followed the story but from what little I have read it seem to be pass the parcel among the investment and property companies each trying to make a buck without building a single house. I see that Lehaunstown House has now been offered for sale.

The lack of building here makes no sense unless one was to conclude that building houses or apartments actually doesn’t make any money at present and developers or their financiers don’t want to start actually building? Maybe people in the property business understand what is going on on with this development since there is a massive demand for housing in the area and this development has been in the works for at least a decade now.


#80

I haven’t been inside the place, but there’s a stack of cranes – can’t remember if it’s five or seven. What are those doing?


#81

I am talking about the whole area (Lehaunstown/Tully) roughly bounded by the M50, Brennanstown Road, the N11 and Tullyvale/Cherrywood. There is a massive area of land in there at least 1km by 1km but probably larger, with roads and parks built here and there and a Luas station in the middle of fields but no house or apartment building there yet, or at least when I was last down there a couple of months ago. Perhaps cranes have arrived there since that time to start building something. There seems to be another road under construction to run from the Circle K garage on the N11 opposite Kilbogget Park to probably meet one of the new unused roads that are already exist in there on these lands.


#82

The Google maps satellite imagery seems to include a fair bit of what you describe.