Dublin property prices are falling again


#123

Dublin house prices continue to fall slowly while national price growth has slowed dramatically. Volume is increasing but new houses are still far below the level required to meet demand.

https://www.cso.ie/en/releasesandpublications/ep/p-rppi/residentialpropertypriceindexseptember2019/


#124

CSO Residential Property Price Index – October 2019 & Overall figures:

https://www.cso.ie/en/releasesandpublications/ep/p-rppi/residentialpropertypriceindexoctober2019/

Dublin annual change
-all Resi: -1.5%
-houses: -1.9%
-apartments: -0.4%

Rest of Ireland exc. Dublin is +3.1%

All of Ireland inc. Dublin is +0.9%


#125

Dublin property valuations could slump 50% as corp tax take shrinks 26 bills >


#126


Soft landing


#127

Well interest rates are still rock bottom and I don’t think there is a massive oversupply of properties, so I don’t see a crash coming.
A correction is definitely possible as new properties are priced to market.
Interesting to see if credit tightens but from the feds recent actions, it appears it’s a game of print or die.


#128


Fear? Panic?


#129

If these are the biggest price drops in Dublin in January, the market is highly resilient.

The only reduction >10% is Glandore House which has been on the market for a couple of years. It’s a fine building but it would be difficult for a family so I’m not surprised it hasn’t found a buyer yet.

The other properties are still asking for well over €5,000 per sq.m. , even in Balrothery!

The politicians will get it in the neck during the election campaign from young people who can’t buy a home (and their parents who can’t wait to have an empty nest :heart_eyes:)


#130

Or the young people who can’t afford to move out and rent either…


#131

Been looking for a few years around the 1m+ range and don’t see much value in the market yet despite reading all about the drop at the higher end.


#132

You can have your pick of some wonderful houses for €1m.+ . Just not in Dublin.:flushed:


#133

#134

On the supply I just did a quick analysis of the PPR for last 3 months of 2019 to see if I could work out the numbers of units in the larger sales. I took the 18 sales over 5m. One was a single dwelling - 16 sales accounted for 798 units (justification for these figures below). The largest sale in the quarter (142m) is for 966 rooms in student accommodation at Point Campus.

I did a similar analysis just for July but lost the figures and references. A lot of this info disappears very quickly. My memory was that there were 1000 units in a handful of transactions. It’s impossible to say whether multiple sales are more a feature than previous years but if this quarter and the July figures are a pattern then we could be talking at least an additional 3000 units per year in Dublin which is about 16% extra sales. Is it possible that there are also a number of builds that have gone straight to rent without touching the PPR? - I think the student accommodation can take this route.

29/11/2019 APT 1, 138A SANDFORD RD, DUBLIN Dublin 6 Dublin € 5,180,000.00
Looks like a small number of apartments - perhaps includes the big house so say 5 at the minimum

08/11/2019 Apt 3 8 12 14 16 18 20 21 25, 29 30 33 42 43 46 49 54 64 67, 71 74 89 90 93 94 ABBERLEY SQUARE Dublin 24 Dublin € 5,500,000.00
29 Apartments (Assuming 25,29 means 25 to 29, 67,71 = 67 to 71)

20/11/2019 STRAWBERRY HILL, VICO RD, DALKEY Dublin € 5,500,000.00
Single dwelling

08/11/2019 53 76 78 85 97 99 100 102 103 107, 110 114 115 117 118 120 121 122, 123 124 125 126 127 128 FAIRVIEW Dublin 3 Dublin € 5,715,000.00
26 apartments (assumming 107,110 = 107-110)

18/12/2019 18-21 23-27 41 42 44-51, WHATELY PLACE, UPPER KILMACUD ROAD Dublin € 6,200,000.00
19 apartments

31/10/2019 25 27 33 23 29 31 35 34 36, 38 The Drive 1 15 3 5 7 9 11, 13 The Park Semple Woods Dublin € 6,246,405.29
20 houses

26/11/2019 Gas Yard Lane, Malahide Dublin € 7,035,000.00
20 apartments implied by this article - https://www.independent.ie/business/commercial-property/drayne-agrees-to-axe-one-storey-from-malahide-apartment-development-35860590.html

23/12/2019 1 - 32 ROUND GARDEN, CITYWEST, SAGGART Dublin 24 Dublin € 7,275,000.00
32 Houses

29/10/2019 2 5 6 9-11 13 15 19 22-24 26 31 32, 34 36 39 41 44 45 48 52 69 76 77, 80 84 87 88 97 99 100 104 ABBERLY Dublin 24 Dublin € 9,000,000.00
37 houses

10/10/2019 APT 1, THE HOPS, JAMESS WALK DUBLIN 8 Dublin 8 Dublin € 9,750,000.00
There is a reference to nos’ 1-28 in a planning application something around this seems reasonable for the price

04/12/2019 Unit 1 and Others Block 1, Wren’s Hill, Donabate Dublin € 10,837,004.41
??? Couldn’t find anything on this - price would suggest something around 30 apartments

29/10/2019 APT 4 16 22 24-28 31 32 34 36-40 42, 43 44-47 49-51 54-61 97 98 100 101, AND 26 OTHER APARTMENTS NEW SESKIN Dublin 24 Dublin € 12,750,000.00
63 apartments

13/12/2019 Block E1 Dublin Landings, North Wall Quay, Dublin 1 Dublin 1 Dublin € 15,898,188.00
300 apartments originally 268 sold to Greystar - this is probably the remaining 32 apartments? https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Dublin_Landings

10/12/2019 APARTMENT 1, SHELBOURNE PLAZA, CHARLOTTE QUAY Dublin 4 Dublin € 22,092,260.47
52 apartments https://www.irishtimes.com/business/commercial-property/apartments-at-shelbourne-plaza-in-d4-sold-for-23m-plus-1.3242685

22/11/2019 APT 1-5 1 NATIONAL COLLEGE OF, IRELAND AND 48 OTHER APARTMENTS, IN 2-12 NATIONAL COLLEGE OF IRELAND Dublin € 35,600,000.00
53 apartments

29/11/2019 HERBERT HILL, SANDYFORD ROAD, DUNDRUM Dublin 16 Dublin € 49,277,966.00
90 units - https://www.morningstar.co.uk/uk/news/AN_1575051016350432000/glenveagh-properties-complete-sale-of-herbert-hill-development.aspx

13/11/2019 Fernbank, Churchtown Road, Dublin 14 Dublin 14 Dublin € 79,306,927.00
Fernbank 262 apartments https://www.irishtimes.com/business/commercial-property/irish-life-unit-buys-262-south-dublin-apartments-for-rental-1.3492279

23/12/2019 Rooms at Blocks A and C, The Point Campus Dublin 1 Dublin € 142,256,576.05
Point Campus 966 rooms https://www.independent.ie/business/commercial-property/student-accommodation-development-soars-but-new-investments-set-to-slow-38446299.html

798 units + 966 rooms (17 entries)


#135

Fernbank have hit the rental market…

€2,650 Jan 02

€2,800 Dec 11

https://www.daft.ie/21990048