Dublin property watch

With all the doom and gloom out there, how come the Dublin properties for sale have dropped by almost 1000 in the past 2 months. Any comments from ye experts. daftwatch.atspace.com/daftcounty_1.html

I am not an expert but the simplest answer is that it is largely a seasonal effect, i.e. the run-up to Christmas/ New Year is not exactly the hottest time of the market in any year, boom or bust.

Also, parallel to the decline in For Sale listings, there has been a significant rise in rental listings. I.e. Sellers are giving up trying to sell and instead putting properties back on the rental market, at least in the short term.

We saw the exact same effect last year with both rentals and sales dropping. Who wants to be showing houses at Christmas?

rentals did not drop much this year, unlike last year

daft.ie/searchrental.daft?s% … &x=14&y=11

I would opine that its because more complete rental premises were on offer where it was rooms last year.

There are 3426 rentals in Dublin City alone as I write. This time last year there were only 2900 in the whole country

Demand for properties is greatest in Dublin, and prices are falling within the reach of people intent on buying, who would have previously bought further out in commuterland. Also demand for rented property is greater in Dublin so there is a shift from investors who could not sell and need cash flow back to the rental market.

Itulip diagram

This image is fromitulip.com, you can add a year if you want to apply the model to Ireland, but as myself and 2pack have maintained over two years ago the crash is from the outside in. Checkout the inventory available in counties on the edge of commuterland such as Cavan, Louth, WestMeath, Wexford etc.

Just had a look at houses for sale against population (2006 census) in regional towns and some of these towns are in major trouble

Portlaoise for sale (daft) 505 pop 11322 (1 to 22 pop)
Mullingar for sale 504 pop 8940 (1 to 18 pop)
Gorey for sale 718 pop 3479 (1 to 5 pop)
Mountmellick for sale 116 pop 2872 (1 to 25 pop)
Portarlington for sale 182 pop 4395 (1 to 24 pop)
Dublin for sale 5168 pop 1.2million (1 to 232 pop)

People in some of the above area will not be able to give away property. It will take at least 10 years for the population to catch up with the supply

Your stats for towns are a bit low. See here in good ole Ireland, the boundaries have not been extended for new parts of towns in the last 30 years. These new parts are called Town name Rural(part of).
Just ask any Cork/Limerick/Navan person about this abnomally :smiley:

Wikipedia has the corrrect pops, i’ve even checked these before against the census 2006 and they are right
en.wikipedia.org/wiki/List_of_to … population

Portlaoise for sale (daft) 505 pop 14,613 (1 to 29 pop)
Mullingar for sale 504 pop 18,416 (1 to 36 pop)
Gorey for sale 718 pop 7,193 (1 to 10 pop)
Mountmellick for sale 116 pop 4,069 (1 to 36 pop)
Portarlington for sale 182 pop 6,004 (1 to 33 pop)
Dublin for sale 5168 pop 1.045million (1 to 202 pop)

Agree with jist of your post, commuterland is seriously oversupplied

Well if you look at the Washington DC market you’ll see that inventory has fallen as prices continue to fall. My guess is that certain sellers were not prepared to sell at the prevailing market price and withdrew their properties. Other sellers are obviously prepared to deal at the prevailing price. Thats markets for you.

housingtracker.net/askingprices/DC/Washington-Arlington-Alexandria/

I think you may have hit the nail on the head there. I was speaking to someone who’s now living in the Browns Barn development in Kingswood beside Citywest. According to him, when they bought the development was all but sold out. Now, following a number of buyers being unable to sell their existing homes nearly one in three of the properties in the development is empty 12 months after the area was completed. From what my friend says, the developer appears to be holding onto the empties rather than putting them onto the market at the moment.

Similarly, close to where I live, there is a newly built 6 unit apartment block that has not shifted a single unit in the 18 months since it was completed in mid 2006. In Octobter of 2007 the EA’s finally took the For Sale signs down. Just before christmas, two of the units were decked out with Christmas lights … but no one lives there!

Blue Horseshoe

Bearing in mind that the run-up to Christmas is usually a ‘dead’ period for house selling as most have other things on their mind, as an estate agent I can give you a simple reason:

There is a natural fall off of properties on the market every month. However, this is not recorded as they are replaced by the natural amount of new properties coming onto the market.

However, in the run-up to Christmas, the usual fall off is NOT replaced to the same extent. This is due to potential sellers holding off until the new year.

hello wolftone

i spotted the same thing a week or so ago, its posted here aswell,

i don’t believe the end of year thing as other counties do not show this, secondly this graph is falling from September,

there is one thing to draw from this,

less houses for sale, and their either been taking of the market or being sold, i think the latter as its quite easy to just leave a property up on daft indefiently you only need to renew ever 90 days it dosent cost you money,

wether people want prices to go up or down, this is uncontrollable, this is economics and if properties become affordable to people and they are sick of renting, they will but eventually.

I have to disagree. For many sellers there is a huge drawback in leaving a property for sale on daft indefinitely - namely that a little bit of searching on Google will show potential buyers that the the property has failed to sell over the course of 6/12/18 months and is clearly not worth the asking price. There’s a good reason why Myhome links often expire, yet you’ll find the same property for sale with the same agent elsewhere on the site with a different URL.

Anecdotally I have heard of sellers temporarily taking their houses off the market because they expect an influx of buyers in the Spring bounce and want to be selling a “fresh” property (ie would rather buyers didn’t know that they couldn’t sell it for the last 6+ months).

You could say, the lights are on but there’s nobody home. :blush: :wink:

Have a look at Galway Commuterland

Ballinasloe for sale 382 pop 6313 ( 1 to 17 pop)
Loughrea for sale 432 pop 4532 (1 to 10 pop )
Tuam for sale 397 pop 6885 ( 1 to 17 pop)

Not forgetting Claremorris and Ballyhaunis :open_mouth:

The numbers are even better if you look at the average occupanccy which is somewhere between 2.6-3.0. In that case it appears that almost 1 in 3 houses are for sale in the likesof Gorey and Loughrea. Doesn’t look good, does it?

Spare me the gorey details… :wink:

Haha! Yes! Another one of my ambitions on the 'pin fulfilled! :stuck_out_tongue:

Williamstown, Co. Galway 79 For sale on Daft, Pop 273 (1 to 3 pop)

Probably more people living in ‘The Williamstown area’, but this has got to be one of the most oversupplied places in Ireland. One of the EA blurps boasts that its near the place where three counties converge (Rosscommon, Galway, Mayo). In fact its a long way from anywhere. Galway is at least an hour away, Athlone is just as far. This place should be preseved as the Bunratty of Hubris.

Williamstown on Daft

Can you warn us how many more such ‘ambitions’ you have yet to fulfill? :slight_smile: