anyone know where the dept. of env get their figures from?
What’s going on in Galway then?
If I sell one house for 104.6 k and a thousand houses that average at 100k… then the average is actually up 4.6%…
Its also well known that in the initial stages of a crash mostly only quality property will sell, the crap only moves at capitulation stage, heavily discounted, which we are still about a year or so from.
Any VI taking comfort from these figures is a fool.
RTE completely f**k up their reporting of the figures…
Where’s 2Pack? He knows the numbers for this…
Assume business continues at this level for the remainder of 08 i.e. let’s play the VI game for a moment and assume 2008 is the bottom and the fabled 2009 recover might actually happen (ha!), and that all mortgage business for 2008 will therefore be around €17.672bn (4 X €4.418bn)
How does this compare to 2005-07? How much new debt-based activity will simply vanish from the economy (and ultimately, GDP) this year, purely because of less mortgage cash sloshing around? I remember 2Pack had been warning about this months ago.
The truth? You can’t handle the truth! No truth-handler you! I deride your truth-handling capabilities.
Debt accumulation hasn’t really slowed all that much yet
Debt growth yoy to end May 2005: 45bn
Debt growth yoy to end May 2006: 62bn
Debt growth yoy to end May 2007: 54bn
Debt growth yoy to end May 2008: 52bn
Yes, ireland is entering a recession (by the looks of it, if not yet offically), while still accumulating debt at a 84% of it’s all time peak, and this debt accumulation will have to drop somewhere into the ‘teens’ to become sustainable.
What matters is the level of oustanding debt?
These growth figures appear to mean gross new lending, excluding repayments
Surely gross new lending is a red herring.
Nope - those figures are based on the difference between the total debt on the date specified and one year before. They are net of any repayments.
52bn debt added in one year?
Ireland’s external debt is something like €1.6 trillion, but €1.2 trillion of that is attributable to our Masters Of The Universe in the IFSC.
The figure to watch is the private sector debt which is now up to about €392bn.
The annual interest cost alone on this (still growing) figure is €23.5bn @6%. That’s an average €13,825 for every single one of our 1.7m taxpayers (70% of whom are earning less than €38.5k!).
And that’s before repaying a cent of principle
It’s grand though
most of the 52 billion was borrowed to buy property and land
and that only goes up…
so once this brief hiccup in the market is over come spring selling season and the ntma helping tom and the boys, next year the Celtic Tiger will come roaring back with Double digit House price appreciation and Donie cassidy will be on here telling all the pinsters what a shower of stupid pessimists we are…
So its the IFSC fault, now that explains something I always wondered how we managed to rack up such a huge number. I mean its practically on par with Japan.
Regarding national debt and interest paid, how do you like you mind scrambled or toasted?
Yep - we passed 60bn on several occasions, so we’re a bit off the boil right now, if that makes you feel any better…
What’s real depressing is that we borrowed around 60bn in 2006 but added only around 20bn to GDP (don’t have the exact figure to hand) - that can’t be good.
Yeah, but it was a great holiday! The craic was massive…