Been looking Dublin high-end residential transactions of houses that can be “benchmarked” with earlier years.
NOTE: TO BE ON Dublin’s TOP 100 RESIDENTIAL HOUSE SALES in 2015, SALE PRICE NEEDED TO BE +1.60m.
(in 2012 is was 1.30m, in 2013 it was 1.60m and in 2014 is was 1.70m)
I posted on some interesting ones, showing pricing in 2016 is, if anything, weaker than 2013.
(a) 70 Ailesbury Road (2016) vs. 56 Ailesbury Road (2013) vs. 62 Ailesbury Road (2012)
thepropertypin.com/viewtopic.php?f=23&t=65271
(b) 57 Merrion Road (2016) vs. 55 Merrion Road (2013)
thepropertypin.com/viewtopic.php?f=10&t=65783
(c) St. Finbars Ailesbury Road (2016) vs. Santa Anna Ailesbury Road (2013)
thepropertypin.com/viewtopic.php?f=10&t=65785
(d) 11 Herbert Park (2.5m in 2016) vs. 3 Herbert Park (2.6m in 2012)
thepropertypin.com/viewtopic.php?p=870787#p870787
I also noted three other transactions in 2016 in SoCoDu, which made a similar point:
(a) Windermere, Westminister Road, Foxrock, Co. Dublin.
thepropertypin.com/viewtopic.php?f=10&t=65784
(b) Aylesbury, Adelaide Road, Glenageary, Co. Dublin
thepropertypin.com/viewtopic.php?f=23&t=64610
(c) Tudor House, Dalkey, Co. Dublin
thepropertypin.com/viewtopic.php?f=10&t=61164
(d) Traverslea House, Glenageary, Co. Dublin
thepropertypin.com/viewtopic.php?f=10&t=66027
(e) Greenan 17B Avoca Avenue, Blackrock, Co. Dublin
thepropertypin.com/viewtopic.php?t=59123&p=706815
Decided to download PPR for the top 100 Dublin sales in 2012, 2013, 2014 & 2015 (2015 is now mature).
Scrubbed the PPR data by taking out the:
- Apartment Blocks (most of these are obvious)
- Commercial (i.e. Abington Wood entry for 4.655m in 2015)
- Restructuring / Not Arms Length (i.e. Embassy House for 5.5m in 2015).
- Sold as Sites for Multi-Family Development (i.e there are several in each year over 2m level)
Got the AVERAGE SALE PRICE for Top 20, Top 30, Top 50 & Top 100 Dublin houses:
All 2012 2013 2014 2015
Top 20 3,355,000 3,829,652 4,252,371 3,913,750
Top 30 3,091,333 3,362,935 3,758,743 3,465,733
Top 50 2,718,114 2,872,441 3,236,846 2,953,852
Top 100 2,126,184 2,283,581 2,595,446 2,352,868
Lowest 1,295,000 1,570,000 1,700,000 1,600,000
Clearly 2015 is down from 2014 and very close to 2013. However 2015 contains two massive transactions - Sorrento House in Dalkey (10m), and Strathmore House in Killiney (7.5m). If I re-run the above, but exclude two largest sales in each year:
Ex. Top 2 2012 2013 2014 2015
Top 20 3,057,000 3,557,152 3,831,176 3,308,700
Top 30 2,882,000 3,164,601 3,447,113 3,042,400
Top 50 2,569,414 2,739,741 3,040,568 2,683,852
Top 100 2,039,784 2,208,081 2,485,207 2,209,868
Lowest 1,290,000 1,560,000 1,700,000 1,595,000
This is more like what my individual investigations in 2016 above showed, 2015 is also slightly weaker than 2013 (and what I sense on the ground in +2m Dublin). We saw a mini-peak in mid-2013 to mid-2014. Since then it has been weaker, and worsening.
There are a couple of factors here, including:
-
Huge take up of Dublin high-end are non-nationals, and especially Irish ex. pats in London. The significant cooling off of London high-end (and of Sterling) is a big factor. London is probably in the most dramatic house bubble seen in western world (as noted by several investment banks below).
uk.businessinsider.com/property-boom-in-europe-v-2008-housing-bubble-us-2016-1
businessinsider.com/deutsche-bank-calls-the-top-on-londons-insane-property-bubble-2015-10
businessinsider.com/ubs-worldwide-housing-bubble-2015-11 -
Another driver of Dublin high-end have been the IT guys, with their winnings from DotCom 2.0. Again, we have seen a dramatic cooling off in this market, with several IT “Unicorns” being culled already (and ominous signed in San Fran housing market).
-
Buying panic is over. Self explanatory.
-
I’m not sure that the political situation is a factor as this only happened in 2016. If you split the data and examine half years, you get the same pattern (i.e. H1 2012 H1 2013 etc. to H1 2015). This could worsen things however into 2016 ? A shift to the left in Ireland is going to mean higher property taxes on +1m houses in the years ahead (they are too low currently, and raising them will do wonders for the supply of land for re-development, and supply of larger family houses, per other countries).
-
The 2015 data also misses the much more dramatic collapse in Sterling in 2016, and particularly in the run up to BREXIT.
FOR INFO:
Here is the data dump of the top 52 houses in each year (probably too much to paste the full 102 houses) if you want to check yourself (the top 52 is where the main “scrubbing” is needed anyway).
Doubtless there will be a few other “non-arms length” deals I have missed, however I would suspect that they are unbiased in their distribution (as long as I have caught the big ones), and won’t affect the data.
Would love to see if anybody else can repeat this for top 100 Dublin residential (i.e. over to you SoCoDu).
2012 Dublin Top 100 House Sales
12-10-12 ‘Lissadell’, 9 Shrewsbury Road, Ballsbridge 6,000,000
17-01-12 8 SHREWSBURY ROAD, BALLSBRIDGE, DUBLIN 4 5,200,000
21-12-12 THORNDENE, SHREWSBURY, BALLSBRIDGE 5,000,000
14-12-12 Coolbeg, 14 Shrewsbury Road, Ballsbridge 4,400,000
01-08-12 16 Temple Villas, Palmerstown Road 3,450,000
07-08-12 Brynogue, Westminster Road, Foxrock 3,450,000
13-01-12 33 Raglan Road, Ballsbridge 3,125,000
01-10-12 16 Argyle Road, Herbert Park, Ballsbridge 3,050,000
23-08-12 2 Castle Place, Breffni Road, Sandycove 3,000,000
14-11-12 Bartra House, Harbour Road, Dalkey 3,000,000
27-02-12 ‘Eagle Lodge’, 27 & 29 Sydney Avenue, Blackrock 2,900,000
23-01-12 Errigal House, Eglinton Road, Donnybrook 2,800,000
07-06-12 79 Park Avenue, Sandymount 2,800,000
24-08-12 9 Temple Villas, Rathmines, Dublin 6 2,800,000
03-08-12 83 Wellington Road, Ballsbridge 2,750,000
27-04-12 70 Park Avenue, Sandymount 2,725,000
10-05-12 14A & 16A Ailesbury Road, Ballsbridge 2,700,000
30-01-12 43 Ailesbury Road, Donnybrook 2,650,000
13-04-12 24 Fitzwilliam Square, Dublin 2 2,650,000
28-06-12 Ardbrugh House, Ardbrugh Road, Dalkey 2,650,000
03-08-12 6 CLYDE ROAD, BALLBRIDGE 2,640,000
20-01-12 25 Greenfield Park, Donnybrook 2,600,000
10-07-12 11 Temple Villas, Rathmines 2,600,000
19-07-12 71 Park Avenue, Sandymount 2,600,000
24-08-12 Cranford Hainault Road, Foxrock 2,600,000
17-09-12 3 Herbert Park, Donnybrook 2,600,000
03-02-12 Ravello, Vico Road, Dalkey 2,500,000
06-07-12 84 Ailesbury Road, Ballsbridge 2,500,000
29-08-12 9, Ailesbury Road 2,500,000
31-08-12 2 Sorrento Terrace, Dalkey 2,500,000
25-07-12 ALTAMONT, KNOCKNACREE ROAD, DALKEY 2,470,001
07-09-12 HAZELMERE, WESTMINISTER ROAD, FOXROCK 2,450,000
19-12-12 63 Merrion Road, Ballsbridge 2,450,000
17-07-12 35 Belgrave Square South, Monkstown 2,408,735
04-09-12 36 Coliemore Road, Dalkey 2,400,000
21-12-12 Sycamore Court, 75 Rathgar Road, Rathgar 2,300,000
14-09-12 Dunamase, Cross Avenue, Botterstown 2,250,000
25-05-12 16 Clyde Road, Ballsbridge, Dublin 4 2,200,000
14-12-12 Rocklands, Harbour Road, Dalkey 2,200,000
01-02-12 80 Shrewsbury Square, Dublin 4 2,130,396
30-01-12 6 Temple Villas, Rathmines 2,100,000
15-11-12 Arranmore, 14 Alma Road, Monkstown 2,100,000
01-11-12 23 Northbrook Road, Ranelagh 2,050,000
19-12-12 14 Rostrevor Terrace, Rathgar 2,006,557
11-04-12 Lugnaquilla, 26 Cowper Road, Rathmines 2,000,000
06-06-12 Thornhill House, Cherry Garth, Mount Merrion 2,000,000
05-07-12 Maryville, 78 George’s Avenue, Blackrock 1,950,000
01-02-12 57 Leeson Park, Raneladh, Dublin 6 1,900,000
16-05-12 19 Clyde Road, Ballsbridge 1,900,000
22-06-12 27 Palmerston Road, Rathmines 1,900,000
07-09-12 8 Palmerston Park, Rathmines 1,900,000
20-01-12 HOPETON, 33 TERENURE ROAD EAST, RATHGAR 1,865,000
2013 Dublin Top 100 House Sales
12-11-13 45 Ailesbury Road, Dublin 5,300,000
15-01-13 Glenvar, Cross Avenue, Blackrock 5,250,000
25-04-13 ‘Gortanore’, Brighton Road, Foxrock 5,050,000
09-10-13 21 Ailesbury Road, Ballsbridge 4,750,000
16-10-13 Shrewsbury House, 2 Shrewsbury Road, Ballsbridge 4,650,000
13-11-13 Milverton, 34 Herbert Park, Ballsbridge 4,600,000
21-06-13 18 Ailesbury Road, Donnybrook 4,500,000
28-11-13 23 TEMPLE GARDENS, RATHMINES, DUBLIN 6 4,500,000
06-09-13 The Priory, Monkstown Road, Monkstown 4,155,000
23-12-13 Ashurst, Military Road, Killiney 4,065,000
18-12-13 PADDOCK WOOD, KILLINEY HILL ROAD, KILLINEY 4,000,000
05-11-13 7 Leeson Park, Ranelagh 3,371,625
09-10-13 72 Park Avenue, Sandymount 3,050,000
26-07-13 Springfield, Sydney Parade Avenue, Blackrock 2,900,000
26-08-13 Cloneevin, Killiney Avenue, Killiney 2,900,000
12-11-13 51 WELLINGTON RD, BALLSBRIDGE, DUBLIN 4 2,850,000
26-08-13 Rockfort, Sandycove Point, Sandycove 2,750,000
13-12-13 18 TEMPLE VILLAS, PALMERSTON RD, RATHMINES DUBLIN 6 2,700,000
18-07-13 24 Elgin Road, Ballsbridge 2,650,000
17-12-13 65 Orwell Park, Rathgar 2,601,412
14-05-13 Coolbawn, 2 Ailsbury Road, Ballsbridge 2,600,000
26-02-13 1 Shrewsbury Road, Ballsbridge 2,500,000
03-04-13 Highfield, South Hill Avenue, Blackrock 2,500,000
16-08-13 The Turret, 18 Park Drive, Ranelagh 2,430,000
18-04-13 51 Orwell Park, Rathgar 2,400,000
14-06-13 28 Shrewsbury Road, Ballsbridge, Dublin 4 2,400,000
31-07-13 56 Ailesbury Road, Donnybrook 2,400,000
13-09-13 28 Orwell Park, Rathgar 2,365,000
07-08-13 5 Leeson Park, Dublin 6 2,350,000
23-12-13 ROXBOROUGH HOUSE, COLLIEMORE ROAD, DALKEY 2,350,000
11-12-13 5 WELLINGTON RD, BALLSBRIDGE, DUBLIN 2,300,000
13-12-13 31 RAGLAN RD, BALLSBRIDGE, DUBLIN 4 2,300,000
21-03-13 55 Merrion Road, Ballsbridge 2,260,000
28-03-13 16 Waltham Terrace, Blackrock 2,225,000
24-06-13 23 Sydney Parade Avenue, Sandymount 2,225,000
01-08-13 9 Alma Road, Monkstown 2,205,000
24-10-13 ‘Violet Hill’, Old Carrickbrack Road, Baily Howth 2,200,000
10-12-13 HENDRE, ST GEORGES AVENUE, KILLINEY 2,200,000
24-07-13 Thormanby, 3 Queenspark, Monkstown 2,175,000
17-01-13 27 ORWELL PARK, RATHGAR, DUBLIN 6 2,150,000
17-10-13 49 Leeson Park, Dublin 6 2,150,000
10-04-13 25 Abbotts Hill, Malahide 2,100,000
13-11-13 FERNSIDE, KILLINEY HILL RD, KILLINEY 2,075,000
16-12-13 Verney House, Kilternan 2,060,000
17-05-13 1 Richview Park, Dartry 2,050,000
12-11-13 WILLOW HOUSE, GROVE WOOD, HAINAULT RD DUBLIN 18 2,050,000
31-10-13 ‘Sleepyhollow’, 5A Temple Villas, Palmerston Road 2,019,000
26-02-13 3 Shrewsbury Road, Ballsbridge 2,000,000
29-11-13 8 Longford Terrace, Monkstown 2,000,000
15-11-13 3 DARTMOUTH RD, RANELAGH, DUBLIN CITY 1,990,000
24-09-13 156 Merrion Road, Ballsbridge 1,965,000
14-05-13 49 Leeson Park, Dublin 6 1,950,000
2014 Dublin Top 100 House Sales
14-05-14 Deepwell, Rock Hill, Blackrock 7,923,900
08-08-14 2 Shrewsbury Road, Ballsbridge 6,500,000
10-06-14 73 AILESBURY RD, BALLSBRIDGE, DUBLIN 4 6,000,000
21-11-14 27 AILESBURY RD, BALLSBRIDGE, DUBLIN 4 5,000,000
11-04-14 18 Elgin Road, Ballsbridge, Dublin 4 4,800,000
21-08-14 ‘Thorndale’, 31 Temple Road, Dartry 4,750,000
13-01-14 KILLOWEN, SHREWSBURY RD, BALLSBRIDGE 4,500,000
15-09-14 81 AILESBURY RD, DONNYBROOK, DUBLIN 4 4,410,000
03-10-14 DODDER GROUND, MILLTOWN BRIDGE RD, MILLTOWN DUBLIN 14 4,000,000
02-07-14 16 TEMPLE VILLAS, PALMERSTOWN RD, DUBLIN 3,950,000
20-08-14 14 Orwell Park, Rathgar, Dublin 6 3,795,000
17-04-14 ROSENEATH, CHURCH RD, MALAHIDE DUBLIN 3,400,000
07-11-14 23 AVOCA AVE, BLACKROCK, DUBLIN 3,400,000
30-06-14 134 Sandford Road, Ranelagh 3,368,511
07-02-14 WOODBURN, 31 SYDNEY AVE, BLACKROCK 3,350,000
09-09-14 THE ALBANY, ALBANY AVE, MONKSTOWN 3,300,000
11-09-14 18 Highfield Road, Rathgar 3,300,000
20-08-14 2 Fitzwilliam Square, Dublin 2 3,200,000
29-08-14 25 AILESBURY RD, BALLSBRIDGE, DUBLIN 4 3,100,000
30-05-14 3 Sorrento Terrace, Dalkey, Co. Dublin 3,000,000
28-08-14 DORSET LODGE, KILLINEY HILL RD, KILLINEY 3,000,000
29-09-14 STANFORD HOUSE, WESTMINSTER RD, FOXROCK DUBLIN 18 3,000,000
20-06-14 30 BELGRAVE SQ SOUTH, MONKSTOWN, DUBLIN 2,975,000
31-07-14 BROCKLY, THE HILL, MONKSTOWN 2,780,000
31-10-14 RATHMORE, ADELAIDE RD, GLENAGEARY 2,750,000
17-10-14 ARD NA GREINE, ARDEEVIN RD, DALKEY 2,695,000
14-04-14 Darty House, Orwell Woods, off Orwell Park 2,689,868
03-10-14 43 ALMA ROAD, MONKSTOWN, CO DUBLIN 2,625,000
06-06-14 85 EGLINTON RD, DONNYBROOK, DUBLIN 2,600,000
17-10-14 72 Eglington Road, Donnybrook 2,600,000
05-12-14 19 Woodside Drive, Rathfarnham 2,550,000
25-07-14 67 Northumberland Road, Ballsbridge, Dublin 4 2,525,000
17-09-14 19 Pembroke Road, Ballsbridge, Dublin 4 2,510,000
26-03-14 Lismallon, Westminster Road, Foxroxk 2,500,000
13-06-14 9 HARCOURT TERRACE, DUBLIN 2, DUBLIN 2,500,000
22-07-14 CLONTRA, QUINNS RD, SHANKILL 2,500,000
26-08-14 KILMARNOCK HOUSE, KILLNEY, DUBLIN 2,500,000
15-10-14 46 Cowper Road, Rathmines 2,500,000
12-12-14 4 Palmerston Villas, Rathmines, Dublin 6 2,500,000
26-09-14 Proby Park House Proby Park, Barnhill Road, Dalkey 2,490,000
06-02-14 13 ROSTREVOR TERRACE, RATHGAR, DUBLIN 6 2,485,000
02-07-14 2 NORTHBROOK RD, RANELAGH, DUBLIN 6 2,450,000
09-12-14 50 ABINGTON, MALAHIDE, DUBLIN 2,450,000
24-10-14 Limasol, 6 Marlborough Road, Glenageary 2,435,000
09-05-14 48 Wellington Road, Ballsbridge 2,400,000
21-03-14 31 WALTHAM TERRACE, BLACKROCK, DUBLIN 2,375,000
25-08-14 6 HERBERT PARK, DONNYBROOK, DUBLIN 4 2,360,000
22-05-14 CLAREMONT, SHREWSBURY ESTATE, BALLSBRIDGE 2,350,000
06-08-14 Ardeevin House, Ardeevin Road, Dalkey 2,350,000
07-11-14 11 PALMERSTON PARK, RATHMINES, DUBLIN 6 2,350,000
29-05-14 culgrenagh, rochestown avenue, killiney 2,310,000
16-05-14 27 ABBOTTS HILL, MALAHIDE, CO DUBLIN 2,300,000
2015 Dublin Top 100 House Sales
31-08-15 SORRENTO HOUSE, 1 SORRENTO TERRACE, SORRENTO ROAD 10,000,000
04-02-15 Strathmore House and Gate Lodge, Strathmore Road, Killiney Co. Dublin 7,500,000
02-10-15 CARNALEA, THORMANBY RD, BAILY DUBLIN 13 5,000,000
14-04-15 ‘Mugnano’, 7 Shrewsbury Road, Ballsbridge 4,800,000
31-07-15 47 Sandford Road, Ranelagh 4,350,000
15-12-15 Sunnyside Vico Road, Dalkey 4,350,000
16-10-15 61 EGLINTON RD, DUBLIN 4, DUBLIN 3,600,000
27-04-15 30 ST KEVINS PARK, DARTRY, DUBLIN 6 3,500,000
26-03-15 NERANO RD, NERANO HOUSE, DALKEY 3,300,000
23-10-15 NUTGROVE, RICHMOND AVE SOUTH, DARTRY 3,125,000
09-12-15 AYLESBURY, ADELAIDE ROAD, GLENAGEARY 3,100,000
18-12-15 5 ALBANY RD, RANELAGH, DUBLIN 6 3,100,000
11-12-15 25 Fitzwilliam Street Upper, Dublin 2 3,000,000
26-03-15 52 Merrion Square, Dublin 2 2,900,000
15-01-15 ST PETERS, 91 AILESBURY RD, DONNYBROOK DUBLIN 4 2,850,000
03-11-15 3 CLYDE RD, DUBLIN 4, DUBLIN 2,850,000
07-01-15 LOUGHGALL, MART LANE, FOXROCK DUBLIN 18 2,800,000
24-07-15 ST COLUMBAS, CHURCH AVE, BALLYBRACK 2,750,000
13-01-15 49 Upper Leeson Street, Dublin 4 2,700,000
14-07-15 16 LEESON PARK, RANELAGH, DUBLIN 6 2,700,000
14-08-15 29 Cowper Road, Rathmines, Dublin 6 2,700,000
08-12-15 HAWK CLIFF, VICO RD, DALKEY 2,699,000
07-08-15 20 WELLINGTON RD, BALLSBRIDGE, DUBLIN 4 2,650,000
16-11-15 CUIL MIN, 56 SYDNEY AVE, BLACKROCK 2,600,000
14-10-15 LONG ACRE, THORMANBY RD, BAILY DUBLIN 13 2,550,000
26-06-15 76 Merrion Road, Ballsbridge, Dublin 4 2,508,000
25-06-15 CNOC ALUINN, 92 COLIEMORE RD, DALKEY 2,500,000
21-08-15 Number 4 Bayswater Terrace, Sandycove, County Dublin 2,500,000
06-10-15 LISMALLON, WESTMINSTER RD, FOXROCK DUBLIN 18 2,500,000
11-09-15 Abbeylands, Marino Avenue West, Killiney 2,490,000
30-10-15 Clarendon, 46 Terenure Road East, Rathgar 2,450,000
04-06-15 72A Seafield Road East, Clontarf, Dublin 3 2,350,000
01-07-15 1 COLIEMORE VILLAS, DALKEY, DUBLIN 2,350,000
26-11-15 Marthas Vineyard, Coliemore Road, Dalkey 2,334,605
09-06-15 CHURCHTOWN HOUSE, WESTON PARK, CHURCHTOWN DUBLIN 14 2,300,000
15-12-15 Glen Ellen, Lehaunstown, Cabinteely 2,300,000
23-01-15 VICTORIA LODGE, 4 STILLORGAN RD, DONNYBROOK DUBLIN 4 2,250,000
11-11-15 Hollywood House, Mount Anville Road, Goatstown 2,250,000
16-11-15 17 ROSTREVOR RD, RATHGAR, DUBLIN 6 2,225,000
07-05-15 2 EDEN ROCK, DALKEY HARBOUR, DALKEY 2,200,000
23-10-15 Salerno, Military Road, Killiney 2,200,000
12-06-15 31 GLENART AVE, BLACKROCK, DUBLIN 2,150,000
29-01-15 1 CAMBRIDGE TCE, LEESON PARK, DUBLIN 6 2,101,000
13-03-15 LEGENDE, FALLS RD, SHANKILL 2,100,000
01-04-15 38 WOODLANDS PARK, BLACKROCK, DUBLIN 2,050,000
01-07-15 Glenshee Torquay Road, Foxrock 2,050,000
21-07-15 Calderwood Court, Calderwood Rd and Sion Hill Rd, Drumcondra 2,045,000
11-09-15 10 SYDNEY AVE, BLACKROCK, DUBLIN 2,015,000
28-01-15 4 HYDE PARK, TERENURE, DUBLIN 6W 2,000,000
22-05-15 MONKSWELL, UPPER GLENAGEARY RD, GLENAGEARY 2,000,000
22-07-15 10 Ailesbury Wood, Ailesbury Road, Ballsbridge 2,000,000
23-10-15 4 ST MARYS ROAD, BALLSBRIDGE, DUBLIN 4. 2,000,000