Dublin Top 100 Residential back to 2013 (and a little below)

The Irish Property Bubble (2006) Sell, Buy or Rent?
1

Been looking Dublin high-end residential transactions of houses that can be “benchmarked” with earlier years.

NOTE: TO BE ON Dublin’s TOP 100 RESIDENTIAL HOUSE SALES in 2015, SALE PRICE NEEDED TO BE +1.60m.
(in 2012 is was 1.30m, in 2013 it was 1.60m and in 2014 is was 1.70m)

I posted on some interesting ones, showing pricing in 2016 is, if anything, weaker than 2013.

(a) 70 Ailesbury Road (2016) vs. 56 Ailesbury Road (2013) vs. 62 Ailesbury Road (2012)
thepropertypin.com/viewtopic.php?f=23&t=65271
(b) 57 Merrion Road (2016) vs. 55 Merrion Road (2013)
thepropertypin.com/viewtopic.php?f=10&t=65783
(c) St. Finbars Ailesbury Road (2016) vs. Santa Anna Ailesbury Road (2013)
thepropertypin.com/viewtopic.php?f=10&t=65785
(d) 11 Herbert Park (2.5m in 2016) vs. 3 Herbert Park (2.6m in 2012)
thepropertypin.com/viewtopic.php?p=870787#p870787

I also noted three other transactions in 2016 in SoCoDu, which made a similar point:

(a) Windermere, Westminister Road, Foxrock, Co. Dublin.
thepropertypin.com/viewtopic.php?f=10&t=65784
(b) Aylesbury, Adelaide Road, Glenageary, Co. Dublin
thepropertypin.com/viewtopic.php?f=23&t=64610
(c) Tudor House, Dalkey, Co. Dublin
thepropertypin.com/viewtopic.php?f=10&t=61164
(d) Traverslea House, Glenageary, Co. Dublin
thepropertypin.com/viewtopic.php?f=10&t=66027
(e) Greenan 17B Avoca Avenue, Blackrock, Co. Dublin
thepropertypin.com/viewtopic.php?t=59123&p=706815

Decided to download PPR for the top 100 Dublin sales in 2012, 2013, 2014 & 2015 (2015 is now mature).

Scrubbed the PPR data by taking out the:

  1. Apartment Blocks (most of these are obvious)
  2. Commercial (i.e. Abington Wood entry for 4.655m in 2015)
  3. Restructuring / Not Arms Length (i.e. Embassy House for 5.5m in 2015).
  4. Sold as Sites for Multi-Family Development (i.e there are several in each year over 2m level)

Got the AVERAGE SALE PRICE for Top 20, Top 30, Top 50 & Top 100 Dublin houses:

All 2012 2013 2014 2015

Top 20 3,355,000 3,829,652 4,252,371 3,913,750
Top 30 3,091,333 3,362,935 3,758,743 3,465,733
Top 50 2,718,114 2,872,441 3,236,846 2,953,852
Top 100 2,126,184 2,283,581 2,595,446 2,352,868

Lowest 1,295,000 1,570,000 1,700,000 1,600,000

Clearly 2015 is down from 2014 and very close to 2013. However 2015 contains two massive transactions - Sorrento House in Dalkey (10m), and Strathmore House in Killiney (7.5m). If I re-run the above, but exclude two largest sales in each year:

Ex. Top 2 2012 2013 2014 2015

Top 20 3,057,000 3,557,152 3,831,176 3,308,700
Top 30 2,882,000 3,164,601 3,447,113 3,042,400
Top 50 2,569,414 2,739,741 3,040,568 2,683,852
Top 100 2,039,784 2,208,081 2,485,207 2,209,868

Lowest 1,290,000 1,560,000 1,700,000 1,595,000

This is more like what my individual investigations in 2016 above showed, 2015 is also slightly weaker than 2013 (and what I sense on the ground in +2m Dublin). We saw a mini-peak in mid-2013 to mid-2014. Since then it has been weaker, and worsening.

There are a couple of factors here, including:

  1. Huge take up of Dublin high-end are non-nationals, and especially Irish ex. pats in London. The significant cooling off of London high-end (and of Sterling) is a big factor. London is probably in the most dramatic house bubble seen in western world (as noted by several investment banks below).
    uk.businessinsider.com/property-boom-in-europe-v-2008-housing-bubble-us-2016-1
    businessinsider.com/deutsche-bank-calls-the-top-on-londons-insane-property-bubble-2015-10
    businessinsider.com/ubs-worldwide-housing-bubble-2015-11

  2. Another driver of Dublin high-end have been the IT guys, with their winnings from DotCom 2.0. Again, we have seen a dramatic cooling off in this market, with several IT “Unicorns” being culled already (and ominous signed in San Fran housing market).

  3. Buying panic is over. Self explanatory.

  4. I’m not sure that the political situation is a factor as this only happened in 2016. If you split the data and examine half years, you get the same pattern (i.e. H1 2012 H1 2013 etc. to H1 2015). This could worsen things however into 2016 ? A shift to the left in Ireland is going to mean higher property taxes on +1m houses in the years ahead (they are too low currently, and raising them will do wonders for the supply of land for re-development, and supply of larger family houses, per other countries).

  5. The 2015 data also misses the much more dramatic collapse in Sterling in 2016, and particularly in the run up to BREXIT.

FOR INFO:

Here is the data dump of the top 52 houses in each year (probably too much to paste the full 102 houses) if you want to check yourself (the top 52 is where the main “scrubbing” is needed anyway).

Doubtless there will be a few other “non-arms length” deals I have missed, however I would suspect that they are unbiased in their distribution (as long as I have caught the big ones), and won’t affect the data.

Would love to see if anybody else can repeat this for top 100 Dublin residential (i.e. over to you SoCoDu).

2012 Dublin Top 100 House Sales

12-10-12 ‘Lissadell’, 9 Shrewsbury Road, Ballsbridge 6,000,000
17-01-12 8 SHREWSBURY ROAD, BALLSBRIDGE, DUBLIN 4 5,200,000
21-12-12 THORNDENE, SHREWSBURY, BALLSBRIDGE 5,000,000
14-12-12 Coolbeg, 14 Shrewsbury Road, Ballsbridge 4,400,000
01-08-12 16 Temple Villas, Palmerstown Road 3,450,000
07-08-12 Brynogue, Westminster Road, Foxrock 3,450,000
13-01-12 33 Raglan Road, Ballsbridge 3,125,000
01-10-12 16 Argyle Road, Herbert Park, Ballsbridge 3,050,000
23-08-12 2 Castle Place, Breffni Road, Sandycove 3,000,000
14-11-12 Bartra House, Harbour Road, Dalkey 3,000,000
27-02-12 ‘Eagle Lodge’, 27 & 29 Sydney Avenue, Blackrock 2,900,000
23-01-12 Errigal House, Eglinton Road, Donnybrook 2,800,000
07-06-12 79 Park Avenue, Sandymount 2,800,000
24-08-12 9 Temple Villas, Rathmines, Dublin 6 2,800,000
03-08-12 83 Wellington Road, Ballsbridge 2,750,000
27-04-12 70 Park Avenue, Sandymount 2,725,000
10-05-12 14A & 16A Ailesbury Road, Ballsbridge 2,700,000
30-01-12 43 Ailesbury Road, Donnybrook 2,650,000
13-04-12 24 Fitzwilliam Square, Dublin 2 2,650,000
28-06-12 Ardbrugh House, Ardbrugh Road, Dalkey 2,650,000
03-08-12 6 CLYDE ROAD, BALLBRIDGE 2,640,000
20-01-12 25 Greenfield Park, Donnybrook 2,600,000
10-07-12 11 Temple Villas, Rathmines 2,600,000
19-07-12 71 Park Avenue, Sandymount 2,600,000
24-08-12 Cranford Hainault Road, Foxrock 2,600,000
17-09-12 3 Herbert Park, Donnybrook 2,600,000
03-02-12 Ravello, Vico Road, Dalkey 2,500,000
06-07-12 84 Ailesbury Road, Ballsbridge 2,500,000
29-08-12 9, Ailesbury Road 2,500,000
31-08-12 2 Sorrento Terrace, Dalkey 2,500,000
25-07-12 ALTAMONT, KNOCKNACREE ROAD, DALKEY 2,470,001
07-09-12 HAZELMERE, WESTMINISTER ROAD, FOXROCK 2,450,000
19-12-12 63 Merrion Road, Ballsbridge 2,450,000
17-07-12 35 Belgrave Square South, Monkstown 2,408,735
04-09-12 36 Coliemore Road, Dalkey 2,400,000
21-12-12 Sycamore Court, 75 Rathgar Road, Rathgar 2,300,000
14-09-12 Dunamase, Cross Avenue, Botterstown 2,250,000
25-05-12 16 Clyde Road, Ballsbridge, Dublin 4 2,200,000
14-12-12 Rocklands, Harbour Road, Dalkey 2,200,000
01-02-12 80 Shrewsbury Square, Dublin 4 2,130,396
30-01-12 6 Temple Villas, Rathmines 2,100,000
15-11-12 Arranmore, 14 Alma Road, Monkstown 2,100,000
01-11-12 23 Northbrook Road, Ranelagh 2,050,000
19-12-12 14 Rostrevor Terrace, Rathgar 2,006,557
11-04-12 Lugnaquilla, 26 Cowper Road, Rathmines 2,000,000
06-06-12 Thornhill House, Cherry Garth, Mount Merrion 2,000,000
05-07-12 Maryville, 78 George’s Avenue, Blackrock 1,950,000
01-02-12 57 Leeson Park, Raneladh, Dublin 6 1,900,000
16-05-12 19 Clyde Road, Ballsbridge 1,900,000
22-06-12 27 Palmerston Road, Rathmines 1,900,000
07-09-12 8 Palmerston Park, Rathmines 1,900,000
20-01-12 HOPETON, 33 TERENURE ROAD EAST, RATHGAR 1,865,000

2013 Dublin Top 100 House Sales

12-11-13 45 Ailesbury Road, Dublin 5,300,000
15-01-13 Glenvar, Cross Avenue, Blackrock 5,250,000
25-04-13 ‘Gortanore’, Brighton Road, Foxrock 5,050,000
09-10-13 21 Ailesbury Road, Ballsbridge 4,750,000
16-10-13 Shrewsbury House, 2 Shrewsbury Road, Ballsbridge 4,650,000
13-11-13 Milverton, 34 Herbert Park, Ballsbridge 4,600,000
21-06-13 18 Ailesbury Road, Donnybrook 4,500,000
28-11-13 23 TEMPLE GARDENS, RATHMINES, DUBLIN 6 4,500,000
06-09-13 The Priory, Monkstown Road, Monkstown 4,155,000
23-12-13 Ashurst, Military Road, Killiney 4,065,000
18-12-13 PADDOCK WOOD, KILLINEY HILL ROAD, KILLINEY 4,000,000
05-11-13 7 Leeson Park, Ranelagh 3,371,625
09-10-13 72 Park Avenue, Sandymount 3,050,000
26-07-13 Springfield, Sydney Parade Avenue, Blackrock 2,900,000
26-08-13 Cloneevin, Killiney Avenue, Killiney 2,900,000
12-11-13 51 WELLINGTON RD, BALLSBRIDGE, DUBLIN 4 2,850,000
26-08-13 Rockfort, Sandycove Point, Sandycove 2,750,000
13-12-13 18 TEMPLE VILLAS, PALMERSTON RD, RATHMINES DUBLIN 6 2,700,000
18-07-13 24 Elgin Road, Ballsbridge 2,650,000
17-12-13 65 Orwell Park, Rathgar 2,601,412
14-05-13 Coolbawn, 2 Ailsbury Road, Ballsbridge 2,600,000
26-02-13 1 Shrewsbury Road, Ballsbridge 2,500,000
03-04-13 Highfield, South Hill Avenue, Blackrock 2,500,000
16-08-13 The Turret, 18 Park Drive, Ranelagh 2,430,000
18-04-13 51 Orwell Park, Rathgar 2,400,000
14-06-13 28 Shrewsbury Road, Ballsbridge, Dublin 4 2,400,000
31-07-13 56 Ailesbury Road, Donnybrook 2,400,000
13-09-13 28 Orwell Park, Rathgar 2,365,000
07-08-13 5 Leeson Park, Dublin 6 2,350,000
23-12-13 ROXBOROUGH HOUSE, COLLIEMORE ROAD, DALKEY 2,350,000
11-12-13 5 WELLINGTON RD, BALLSBRIDGE, DUBLIN 2,300,000
13-12-13 31 RAGLAN RD, BALLSBRIDGE, DUBLIN 4 2,300,000
21-03-13 55 Merrion Road, Ballsbridge 2,260,000
28-03-13 16 Waltham Terrace, Blackrock 2,225,000
24-06-13 23 Sydney Parade Avenue, Sandymount 2,225,000
01-08-13 9 Alma Road, Monkstown 2,205,000
24-10-13 ‘Violet Hill’, Old Carrickbrack Road, Baily Howth 2,200,000
10-12-13 HENDRE, ST GEORGES AVENUE, KILLINEY 2,200,000
24-07-13 Thormanby, 3 Queenspark, Monkstown 2,175,000
17-01-13 27 ORWELL PARK, RATHGAR, DUBLIN 6 2,150,000
17-10-13 49 Leeson Park, Dublin 6 2,150,000
10-04-13 25 Abbotts Hill, Malahide 2,100,000
13-11-13 FERNSIDE, KILLINEY HILL RD, KILLINEY 2,075,000
16-12-13 Verney House, Kilternan 2,060,000
17-05-13 1 Richview Park, Dartry 2,050,000
12-11-13 WILLOW HOUSE, GROVE WOOD, HAINAULT RD DUBLIN 18 2,050,000
31-10-13 ‘Sleepyhollow’, 5A Temple Villas, Palmerston Road 2,019,000
26-02-13 3 Shrewsbury Road, Ballsbridge 2,000,000
29-11-13 8 Longford Terrace, Monkstown 2,000,000
15-11-13 3 DARTMOUTH RD, RANELAGH, DUBLIN CITY 1,990,000
24-09-13 156 Merrion Road, Ballsbridge 1,965,000
14-05-13 49 Leeson Park, Dublin 6 1,950,000

2014 Dublin Top 100 House Sales

14-05-14 Deepwell, Rock Hill, Blackrock 7,923,900
08-08-14 2 Shrewsbury Road, Ballsbridge 6,500,000
10-06-14 73 AILESBURY RD, BALLSBRIDGE, DUBLIN 4 6,000,000
21-11-14 27 AILESBURY RD, BALLSBRIDGE, DUBLIN 4 5,000,000
11-04-14 18 Elgin Road, Ballsbridge, Dublin 4 4,800,000
21-08-14 ‘Thorndale’, 31 Temple Road, Dartry 4,750,000
13-01-14 KILLOWEN, SHREWSBURY RD, BALLSBRIDGE 4,500,000
15-09-14 81 AILESBURY RD, DONNYBROOK, DUBLIN 4 4,410,000
03-10-14 DODDER GROUND, MILLTOWN BRIDGE RD, MILLTOWN DUBLIN 14 4,000,000
02-07-14 16 TEMPLE VILLAS, PALMERSTOWN RD, DUBLIN 3,950,000
20-08-14 14 Orwell Park, Rathgar, Dublin 6 3,795,000
17-04-14 ROSENEATH, CHURCH RD, MALAHIDE DUBLIN 3,400,000
07-11-14 23 AVOCA AVE, BLACKROCK, DUBLIN 3,400,000
30-06-14 134 Sandford Road, Ranelagh 3,368,511
07-02-14 WOODBURN, 31 SYDNEY AVE, BLACKROCK 3,350,000
09-09-14 THE ALBANY, ALBANY AVE, MONKSTOWN 3,300,000
11-09-14 18 Highfield Road, Rathgar 3,300,000
20-08-14 2 Fitzwilliam Square, Dublin 2 3,200,000
29-08-14 25 AILESBURY RD, BALLSBRIDGE, DUBLIN 4 3,100,000
30-05-14 3 Sorrento Terrace, Dalkey, Co. Dublin 3,000,000
28-08-14 DORSET LODGE, KILLINEY HILL RD, KILLINEY 3,000,000
29-09-14 STANFORD HOUSE, WESTMINSTER RD, FOXROCK DUBLIN 18 3,000,000
20-06-14 30 BELGRAVE SQ SOUTH, MONKSTOWN, DUBLIN 2,975,000
31-07-14 BROCKLY, THE HILL, MONKSTOWN 2,780,000
31-10-14 RATHMORE, ADELAIDE RD, GLENAGEARY 2,750,000
17-10-14 ARD NA GREINE, ARDEEVIN RD, DALKEY 2,695,000
14-04-14 Darty House, Orwell Woods, off Orwell Park 2,689,868
03-10-14 43 ALMA ROAD, MONKSTOWN, CO DUBLIN 2,625,000
06-06-14 85 EGLINTON RD, DONNYBROOK, DUBLIN 2,600,000
17-10-14 72 Eglington Road, Donnybrook 2,600,000
05-12-14 19 Woodside Drive, Rathfarnham 2,550,000
25-07-14 67 Northumberland Road, Ballsbridge, Dublin 4 2,525,000
17-09-14 19 Pembroke Road, Ballsbridge, Dublin 4 2,510,000
26-03-14 Lismallon, Westminster Road, Foxroxk 2,500,000
13-06-14 9 HARCOURT TERRACE, DUBLIN 2, DUBLIN 2,500,000
22-07-14 CLONTRA, QUINNS RD, SHANKILL 2,500,000
26-08-14 KILMARNOCK HOUSE, KILLNEY, DUBLIN 2,500,000
15-10-14 46 Cowper Road, Rathmines 2,500,000
12-12-14 4 Palmerston Villas, Rathmines, Dublin 6 2,500,000
26-09-14 Proby Park House Proby Park, Barnhill Road, Dalkey 2,490,000
06-02-14 13 ROSTREVOR TERRACE, RATHGAR, DUBLIN 6 2,485,000
02-07-14 2 NORTHBROOK RD, RANELAGH, DUBLIN 6 2,450,000
09-12-14 50 ABINGTON, MALAHIDE, DUBLIN 2,450,000
24-10-14 Limasol, 6 Marlborough Road, Glenageary 2,435,000
09-05-14 48 Wellington Road, Ballsbridge 2,400,000
21-03-14 31 WALTHAM TERRACE, BLACKROCK, DUBLIN 2,375,000
25-08-14 6 HERBERT PARK, DONNYBROOK, DUBLIN 4 2,360,000
22-05-14 CLAREMONT, SHREWSBURY ESTATE, BALLSBRIDGE 2,350,000
06-08-14 Ardeevin House, Ardeevin Road, Dalkey 2,350,000
07-11-14 11 PALMERSTON PARK, RATHMINES, DUBLIN 6 2,350,000
29-05-14 culgrenagh, rochestown avenue, killiney 2,310,000
16-05-14 27 ABBOTTS HILL, MALAHIDE, CO DUBLIN 2,300,000

2015 Dublin Top 100 House Sales

31-08-15 SORRENTO HOUSE, 1 SORRENTO TERRACE, SORRENTO ROAD 10,000,000
04-02-15 Strathmore House and Gate Lodge, Strathmore Road, Killiney Co. Dublin 7,500,000
02-10-15 CARNALEA, THORMANBY RD, BAILY DUBLIN 13 5,000,000
14-04-15 ‘Mugnano’, 7 Shrewsbury Road, Ballsbridge 4,800,000
31-07-15 47 Sandford Road, Ranelagh 4,350,000
15-12-15 Sunnyside Vico Road, Dalkey 4,350,000
16-10-15 61 EGLINTON RD, DUBLIN 4, DUBLIN 3,600,000
27-04-15 30 ST KEVINS PARK, DARTRY, DUBLIN 6 3,500,000
26-03-15 NERANO RD, NERANO HOUSE, DALKEY 3,300,000
23-10-15 NUTGROVE, RICHMOND AVE SOUTH, DARTRY 3,125,000
09-12-15 AYLESBURY, ADELAIDE ROAD, GLENAGEARY 3,100,000
18-12-15 5 ALBANY RD, RANELAGH, DUBLIN 6 3,100,000
11-12-15 25 Fitzwilliam Street Upper, Dublin 2 3,000,000
26-03-15 52 Merrion Square, Dublin 2 2,900,000
15-01-15 ST PETERS, 91 AILESBURY RD, DONNYBROOK DUBLIN 4 2,850,000
03-11-15 3 CLYDE RD, DUBLIN 4, DUBLIN 2,850,000
07-01-15 LOUGHGALL, MART LANE, FOXROCK DUBLIN 18 2,800,000
24-07-15 ST COLUMBAS, CHURCH AVE, BALLYBRACK 2,750,000
13-01-15 49 Upper Leeson Street, Dublin 4 2,700,000
14-07-15 16 LEESON PARK, RANELAGH, DUBLIN 6 2,700,000
14-08-15 29 Cowper Road, Rathmines, Dublin 6 2,700,000
08-12-15 HAWK CLIFF, VICO RD, DALKEY 2,699,000
07-08-15 20 WELLINGTON RD, BALLSBRIDGE, DUBLIN 4 2,650,000
16-11-15 CUIL MIN, 56 SYDNEY AVE, BLACKROCK 2,600,000
14-10-15 LONG ACRE, THORMANBY RD, BAILY DUBLIN 13 2,550,000
26-06-15 76 Merrion Road, Ballsbridge, Dublin 4 2,508,000
25-06-15 CNOC ALUINN, 92 COLIEMORE RD, DALKEY 2,500,000
21-08-15 Number 4 Bayswater Terrace, Sandycove, County Dublin 2,500,000
06-10-15 LISMALLON, WESTMINSTER RD, FOXROCK DUBLIN 18 2,500,000
11-09-15 Abbeylands, Marino Avenue West, Killiney 2,490,000
30-10-15 Clarendon, 46 Terenure Road East, Rathgar 2,450,000
04-06-15 72A Seafield Road East, Clontarf, Dublin 3 2,350,000
01-07-15 1 COLIEMORE VILLAS, DALKEY, DUBLIN 2,350,000
26-11-15 Marthas Vineyard, Coliemore Road, Dalkey 2,334,605
09-06-15 CHURCHTOWN HOUSE, WESTON PARK, CHURCHTOWN DUBLIN 14 2,300,000
15-12-15 Glen Ellen, Lehaunstown, Cabinteely 2,300,000
23-01-15 VICTORIA LODGE, 4 STILLORGAN RD, DONNYBROOK DUBLIN 4 2,250,000
11-11-15 Hollywood House, Mount Anville Road, Goatstown 2,250,000
16-11-15 17 ROSTREVOR RD, RATHGAR, DUBLIN 6 2,225,000
07-05-15 2 EDEN ROCK, DALKEY HARBOUR, DALKEY 2,200,000
23-10-15 Salerno, Military Road, Killiney 2,200,000
12-06-15 31 GLENART AVE, BLACKROCK, DUBLIN 2,150,000
29-01-15 1 CAMBRIDGE TCE, LEESON PARK, DUBLIN 6 2,101,000
13-03-15 LEGENDE, FALLS RD, SHANKILL 2,100,000
01-04-15 38 WOODLANDS PARK, BLACKROCK, DUBLIN 2,050,000
01-07-15 Glenshee Torquay Road, Foxrock 2,050,000
21-07-15 Calderwood Court, Calderwood Rd and Sion Hill Rd, Drumcondra 2,045,000
11-09-15 10 SYDNEY AVE, BLACKROCK, DUBLIN 2,015,000
28-01-15 4 HYDE PARK, TERENURE, DUBLIN 6W 2,000,000
22-05-15 MONKSWELL, UPPER GLENAGEARY RD, GLENAGEARY 2,000,000
22-07-15 10 Ailesbury Wood, Ailesbury Road, Ballsbridge 2,000,000
23-10-15 4 ST MARYS ROAD, BALLSBRIDGE, DUBLIN 4. 2,000,000

3

thanks

not something the Irish property “bubble media” will allow (or at least without an agency de-scrubbing the data, and putting back in the misleading transactions, to get a better result - there were several big “site sales” in 2015 for multi-family). and certainly not something that the government sponsored ESRI or CSO would be doing either (can’t have that given “recovery” narrative).

i wonder if the fall in Dublin high-end house prices in 2015 predicted the fall in FG/LAB fortunes?

5

Updated based on SoCoDu’s comments above, and reconciled with SoCoDu’s list on Embassy House, 32 Burlington Road (thepropertypin.com/viewtopic.php?p=870242#p870242).

Didn’t include the listed embassies from SoCoDu as they are not not on the PPR to start with (don’t know the ones that I cannot see) and are not really normal “residential” transactions in any case. The PPR list still includes many cases of purchases that were embassy related (i.e. bought / funded to buy for embassy staff), as well as corporates (bought / funded by corporate for staff) etc. I think the sample is big enough anyway to make the same point.

So, updated table for AVERAGE SALE PRICE for all Dublin high-end top 100 transactions in PPR is now:

All 2012 2013 2014 2015

Top 20 3,347,000 3,722,152 4,102,371 3,913,750
Top 30 3,080,333 3,281,268 3,621,580 3,465,733
Top 50 2,697,414 2,816,741 3,132,348 2,950,952
Top 100 2,103,784 2,251,081 2,514,798 2,343,418

As earlier, ex. the top 2 sales in each year (very distorting on averages) the top 100 sales are:

Ex Top 2 2012 2013 2014 2015

Top 20 3,047,000 3,444,652 3,668,926 3,308,700
Top 30 2,870,333 3,081,601 3,307,450 3,042,400
Top 50 2,547,414 2,682,541 2,931,870 2,679,952
Top 100 2,016,984 2,175,581 2,403,559 2,200,418

Again, Dublin high-end houses have fallen in 2015, and are now back (and even slightly below) 2013.

This mirrors the same fall off in international high-end property in 2015 (vs. 2014), and London property in particular (which is really starting to slide) were Irish ex-pats in London, are a big driver of Dublin high-end prices.

Roughly half of top Dublin sales post 2012 are to non-domestics, and London based Irish ex-pats dominate this.

I should note that the above drop in 2015 is before the issues around Irish political instability / rise of the Left from the 2016 election (i.e. property taxes on mansions will rise significantly under any form of left-influenced government as the rate is too low, and even frozen at lower years levels), or the more dramatic fall in Sterling in the last few months (which again, will have a material effect on Dublin high-end if it persists beyond the BREXIT vote).

The revised Top 52 list (you can check Top 50 with, and without, top 2) for each year is now:

2012 Dublin Top 100 House Sales

Date Address Price (€)
12-10-12 1 ‘Lissadell’, 9 Shrewsbury Road, Ballsbridge 6,000,000
17-01-12 2 8 SHREWSBURY ROAD, BALLSBRIDGE, DUBLIN 4 5,200,000
21-12-12 3 THORNDENE, SHREWSBURY, BALLSBRIDGE 5,000,000
14-12-12 4 Coolbeg, 14 Shrewsbury Road, Ballsbridge 4,400,000
01-08-12 5 16 Temple Villas, Palmerstown Road 3,450,000
07-08-12 6 Brynogue, Westminster Road, Foxrock 3,450,000
13-01-12 7 33 Raglan Road, Ballsbridge 3,125,000
01-10-12 8 16 Argyle Road, Herbert Park, Ballsbridge 3,050,000
23-08-12 9 2 Castle Place, Breffni Road, Sandycove 3,000,000
14-11-12 10 Bartra House, Harbour Road, Dalkey 3,000,000
27-02-12 11 ‘Eagle Lodge’, 27 & 29 Sydney Avenue, Blackrock 2,900,000
07-06-12 12 79 Park Avenue, Sandymount 2,800,000
24-08-12 13 9 Temple Villas, Rathmines, Dublin 6 2,800,000
03-08-12 14 83 Wellington Road, Ballsbridge 2,750,000
27-04-12 15 70 Park Avenue, Sandymount 2,725,000
10-05-12 16 14A & 16A Ailesbury Road, Ballsbridge 2,700,000
30-01-12 17 43 Ailesbury Road, Donnybrook 2,650,000
13-04-12 18 24 Fitzwilliam Square, Dublin 2 2,650,000
28-06-12 19 Ardbrugh House, Ardbrugh Road, Dalkey 2,650,000
03-08-12 20 6 CLYDE ROAD, BALLBRIDGE 2,640,000
20-01-12 21 25 Greenfield Park, Donnybrook 2,600,000
10-07-12 22 11 Temple Villas, Rathmines 2,600,000
19-07-12 23 71 Park Avenue, Sandymount 2,600,000
24-08-12 24 Cranford Hainault Road, Foxrock 2,600,000
17-09-12 25 3 Herbert Park, Donnybrook 2,600,000
03-02-12 26 Ravello, Vico Road, Dalkey 2,500,000
06-07-12 27 84 Ailesbury Road, Ballsbridge 2,500,000
29-08-12 28 9, Ailesbury Road 2,500,000
31-08-12 29 2 Sorrento Terrace, Dalkey 2,500,000
25-07-12 30 ALTAMONT, KNOCKNACREE ROAD, DALKEY 2,470,001
07-09-12 31 HAZELMERE, WESTMINISTER ROAD, FOXROCK 2,450,000
19-12-12 32 63 Merrion Road, Ballsbridge 2,450,000
17-07-12 33 35 Belgrave Square South, Monkstown 2,408,735
04-09-12 34 36 Coliemore Road, Dalkey 2,400,000
21-12-12 35 Sycamore Court, 75 Rathgar Road, Rathgar 2,300,000
14-09-12 36 Dunamase, Cross Avenue, Botterstown 2,250,000
25-05-12 37 16 Clyde Road, Ballsbridge, Dublin 4 2,200,000
14-12-12 38 Rocklands, Harbour Road, Dalkey 2,200,000
01-02-12 39 80 Shrewsbury Square, Dublin 4 2,130,396
30-01-12 40 6 Temple Villas, Rathmines 2,100,000
15-11-12 41 Arranmore, 14 Alma Road, Monkstown 2,100,000
01-11-12 42 23 Northbrook Road, Ranelagh 2,050,000
19-12-12 43 14 Rostrevor Terrace, Rathgar 2,006,557
11-04-12 44 Lugnaquilla, 26 Cowper Road, Rathmines 2,000,000
05-07-12 45 Maryville, 78 George’s Avenue, Blackrock 1,950,000
01-02-12 46 57 Leeson Park, Raneladh, Dublin 6 1,900,000
16-05-12 47 19 Clyde Road, Ballsbridge 1,900,000
22-06-12 48 27 Palmerston Road, Rathmines 1,900,000
07-09-12 49 8 Palmerston Park, Rathmines 1,900,000
20-01-12 50 HOPETON, 33 TERENURE ROAD EAST, RATHGAR 1,865,000
08-06-12 51 4 Raglan Road, Ballsbridge 1,850,000
13-07-12 52 9 Orwell Park, Rathgar 1,850,000

2013 Dublin Top 100 House Sales

Date Address Price (€)
12-11-13 1 45 Ailesbury Road, Dublin 5,300,000
15-01-13 2 Glenvar, Cross Avenue, Blackrock 5,250,000
25-04-13 3 ‘Gortanore’, Brighton Road, Foxrock 5,050,000
16-10-13 4 Shrewsbury House, 2 Shrewsbury Road, Ballsbridge 4,650,000
13-11-13 5 Milverton, 34 Herbert Park, Ballsbridge 4,600,000
21-06-13 6 18 Ailesbury Road, Donnybrook 4,500,000
28-11-13 7 23 TEMPLE GARDENS, RATHMINES, DUBLIN 6 4,500,000
06-09-13 8 The Priory, Monkstown Road, Monkstown 4,155,000
23-12-13 9 Ashurst, Military Road, Killiney 4,065,000
18-12-13 10 PADDOCK WOOD, KILLINEY HILL ROAD, KILLINEY 4,000,000
05-11-13 11 7 Leeson Park, Ranelagh 3,371,625
09-10-13 12 72 Park Avenue, Sandymount 3,050,000
26-07-13 13 Springfield, Sydney Parade Avenue, Blackrock 2,900,000
26-08-13 14 Cloneevin, Killiney Avenue, Killiney 2,900,000
12-11-13 15 51 WELLINGTON RD, BALLSBRIDGE, DUBLIN 4 2,850,000
26-08-13 16 Rockfort, Sandycove Point, Sandycove 2,750,000
13-12-13 17 18 TEMPLE VILLAS, PALMERSTON RD, RATHMINES DUBLIN 6 2,700,000
18-07-13 18 24 Elgin Road, Ballsbridge 2,650,000
17-12-13 19 65 Orwell Park, Rathgar 2,601,412
14-05-13 20 Coolbawn, 2 Ailsbury Road, Ballsbridge 2,600,000
26-02-13 21 1 Shrewsbury Road, Ballsbridge 2,500,000
03-04-13 22 Highfield, South Hill Avenue, Blackrock 2,500,000
16-08-13 23 The Turret, 18 Park Drive, Ranelagh 2,430,000
18-04-13 24 51 Orwell Park, Rathgar 2,400,000
14-06-13 25 28 Shrewsbury Road, Ballsbridge, Dublin 4 2,400,000
31-07-13 26 56 Ailesbury Road, Donnybrook 2,400,000
13-09-13 27 28 Orwell Park, Rathgar 2,365,000
07-08-13 28 5 Leeson Park, Dublin 6 2,350,000
23-12-13 29 ROXBOROUGH HOUSE, COLLIEMORE ROAD, DALKEY 2,350,000
11-12-13 30 5 WELLINGTON RD, BALLSBRIDGE, DUBLIN 2,300,000
13-12-13 31 31 RAGLAN RD, BALLSBRIDGE, DUBLIN 4 2,300,000
21-03-13 32 55 Merrion Road, Ballsbridge 2,260,000
28-03-13 33 16 Waltham Terrace, Blackrock 2,225,000
24-06-13 34 23 Sydney Parade Avenue, Sandymount 2,225,000
01-08-13 35 9 Alma Road, Monkstown 2,205,000
24-10-13 36 ‘Violet Hill’, Old Carrickbrack Road, Baily Howth 2,200,000
10-12-13 37 HENDRE, ST GEORGES AVENUE, KILLINEY 2,200,000
24-07-13 38 Thormanby, 3 Queenspark, Monkstown 2,175,000
17-01-13 39 27 ORWELL PARK, RATHGAR, DUBLIN 6 2,150,000
17-10-13 40 49 Leeson Park, Dublin 6 2,150,000
10-04-13 41 25 Abbotts Hill, Malahide 2,100,000
13-11-13 42 FERNSIDE, KILLINEY HILL RD, KILLINEY 2,075,000
16-12-13 43 Verney House, Kilternan 2,060,000
17-05-13 44 1 Richview Park, Dartry 2,050,000
12-11-13 45 WILLOW HOUSE, GROVE WOOD, HAINAULT RD DUBLIN 18 2,050,000
31-10-13 46 ‘Sleepyhollow’, 5A Temple Villas, Palmerston Road 2,019,000
26-02-13 47 3 Shrewsbury Road, Ballsbridge 2,000,000
29-11-13 48 8 Longford Terrace, Monkstown 2,000,000
15-11-13 49 3 DARTMOUTH RD, RANELAGH, DUBLIN CITY 1,990,000
24-09-13 50 156 Merrion Road, Ballsbridge 1,965,000
14-05-13 51 49 Leeson Park, Dublin 6 1,950,000
09-08-13 52 3 Northbrook Road, Ranelagh, Dublin 6 1,890,000

2014 Dublin Top 100 House Sales

Date Address Price (€)
14-05-14 1 Deepwell, Rock Hill, Blackrock 7,923,900
08-08-14 2 2 Shrewsbury Road, Ballsbridge 6,500,000
21-11-14 3 27 AILESBURY RD, BALLSBRIDGE, DUBLIN 4 5,000,000
11-04-14 4 18 Elgin Road, Ballsbridge, Dublin 4 4,800,000
21-08-14 5 ‘Thorndale’, 31 Temple Road, Dartry 4,750,000
13-01-14 6 KILLOWEN, SHREWSBURY RD, BALLSBRIDGE 4,500,000
15-09-14 7 81 AILESBURY RD, DONNYBROOK, DUBLIN 4 4,410,000
03-10-14 8 DODDER GROUND, MILLTOWN BRIDGE RD, MILLTOWN DUBLIN 14 4,000,000
02-07-14 9 16 TEMPLE VILLAS, PALMERSTOWN RD, DUBLIN 3,950,000
20-08-14 10 14 Orwell Park, Rathgar, Dublin 6 3,795,000
17-04-14 11 ROSENEATH, CHURCH RD, MALAHIDE DUBLIN 3,400,000
07-11-14 12 23 AVOCA AVE, BLACKROCK, DUBLIN 3,400,000
30-06-14 13 134 Sandford Road, Ranelagh 3,368,511
07-02-14 14 WOODBURN, 31 SYDNEY AVE, BLACKROCK 3,350,000
09-09-14 15 THE ALBANY, ALBANY AVE, MONKSTOWN 3,300,000
11-09-14 16 18 Highfield Road, Rathgar 3,300,000
20-08-14 17 2 Fitzwilliam Square, Dublin 2 3,200,000
29-08-14 18 25 AILESBURY RD, BALLSBRIDGE, DUBLIN 4 3,100,000
30-05-14 19 3 Sorrento Terrace, Dalkey, Co. Dublin 3,000,000
28-08-14 20 DORSET LODGE, KILLINEY HILL RD, KILLINEY 3,000,000
20-06-14 21 30 BELGRAVE SQ SOUTH, MONKSTOWN, DUBLIN 2,975,000
31-07-14 22 BROCKLY, THE HILL, MONKSTOWN 2,780,000
31-10-14 23 RATHMORE, ADELAIDE RD, GLENAGEARY 2,750,000
17-10-14 24 ARD NA GREINE, ARDEEVIN RD, DALKEY 2,695,000
03-10-14 25 43 ALMA ROAD, MONKSTOWN, CO DUBLIN 2,625,000
06-06-14 26 85 EGLINTON RD, DONNYBROOK, DUBLIN 2,600,000
17-10-14 27 72 Eglington Road, Donnybrook 2,600,000
05-12-14 28 19 Woodside Drive, Rathfarnham 2,550,000
25-07-14 29 67 Northumberland Road, Ballsbridge, Dublin 4 2,525,000
26-03-14 30 Lismallon, Westminster Road, Foxroxk 2,500,000
13-06-14 31 9 HARCOURT TERRACE, DUBLIN 2, DUBLIN 2,500,000
22-07-14 32 CLONTRA, QUINNS RD, SHANKILL 2,500,000
26-08-14 33 KILMARNOCK HOUSE, KILLNEY, DUBLIN 2,500,000
15-10-14 34 46 Cowper Road, Rathmines 2,500,000
12-12-14 35 4 Palmerston Villas, Rathmines, Dublin 6 2,500,000
26-09-14 36 Proby Park House Proby Park, Barnhill Road, Dalkey 2,490,000
06-02-14 37 13 ROSTREVOR TERRACE, RATHGAR, DUBLIN 6 2,485,000
02-07-14 38 2 NORTHBROOK RD, RANELAGH, DUBLIN 6 2,450,000
09-12-14 39 50 ABINGTON, MALAHIDE, DUBLIN 2,450,000
24-10-14 40 Limasol, 6 Marlborough Road, Glenageary 2,435,000
09-05-14 41 48 Wellington Road, Ballsbridge 2,400,000
21-03-14 42 31 WALTHAM TERRACE, BLACKROCK, DUBLIN 2,375,000
25-08-14 43 6 HERBERT PARK, DONNYBROOK, DUBLIN 4 2,360,000
22-05-14 44 CLAREMONT, SHREWSBURY ESTATE, BALLSBRIDGE 2,350,000
06-08-14 45 Ardeevin House, Ardeevin Road, Dalkey 2,350,000
07-11-14 46 11 PALMERSTON PARK, RATHMINES, DUBLIN 6 2,350,000
16-05-14 47 27 ABBOTTS HILL, MALAHIDE, CO DUBLIN 2,300,000
06-06-14 48 19 PALMERSTOWN PARK, RATHMINES, DUBLIN 6 2,250,000
23-05-14 49 Forgney, Grove Avenue, Blackrock 2,225,000
09-04-14 50 67 LEESON ST UPPER, DUBLIN 4, DUBLIN 2,200,000
04-09-14 51 GALLEEN, MARINO AVE EAST, KILLINEY 2,200,000
25-09-14 52 THE ORCHARD, CROSS AVENUE, BLACKROCK 2,200,000

2015 Dublin Top 100 House Sales

31-08-15 1 SORRENTO HOUSE, 1 SORRENTO TERRACE, SORRENTO ROAD 10,000,000
04-02-15 2 Strathmore House and Gate Lodge, Strathmore Road, Killiney Co. Dublin 7,500,000
02-10-15 3 CARNALEA, THORMANBY RD, BAILY DUBLIN 13 5,000,000
14-04-15 4 ‘Mugnano’, 7 Shrewsbury Road, Ballsbridge 4,800,000
31-07-15 5 47 Sandford Road, Ranelagh 4,350,000
15-12-15 6 Sunnyside Vico Road, Dalkey 4,350,000
16-10-15 7 61 EGLINTON RD, DUBLIN 4, DUBLIN 3,600,000
27-04-15 8 30 ST KEVINS PARK, DARTRY, DUBLIN 6 3,500,000
26-03-15 9 NERANO RD, NERANO HOUSE, DALKEY 3,300,000
23-10-15 10 NUTGROVE, RICHMOND AVE SOUTH, DARTRY 3,125,000
09-12-15 11 AYLESBURY, ADELAIDE ROAD, GLENAGEARY 3,100,000
18-12-15 12 5 ALBANY RD, RANELAGH, DUBLIN 6 3,100,000
11-12-15 13 25 Fitzwilliam Street Upper, Dublin 2 3,000,000
26-03-15 14 52 Merrion Square, Dublin 2 2,900,000
15-01-15 15 ST PETERS, 91 AILESBURY RD, DONNYBROOK DUBLIN 4 2,850,000
03-11-15 16 3 CLYDE RD, DUBLIN 4, DUBLIN 2,850,000
07-01-15 17 LOUGHGALL, MART LANE, FOXROCK DUBLIN 18 2,800,000
24-07-15 18 ST COLUMBAS, CHURCH AVE, BALLYBRACK 2,750,000
13-01-15 19 49 Upper Leeson Street, Dublin 4 2,700,000
14-07-15 20 16 LEESON PARK, RANELAGH, DUBLIN 6 2,700,000
14-08-15 21 29 Cowper Road, Rathmines, Dublin 6 2,700,000
08-12-15 22 HAWK CLIFF, VICO RD, DALKEY 2,699,000
07-08-15 23 20 WELLINGTON RD, BALLSBRIDGE, DUBLIN 4 2,650,000
16-11-15 24 CUIL MIN, 56 SYDNEY AVE, BLACKROCK 2,600,000
14-10-15 25 LONG ACRE, THORMANBY RD, BAILY DUBLIN 13 2,550,000
26-06-15 26 76 Merrion Road, Ballsbridge, Dublin 4 2,508,000
25-06-15 27 CNOC ALUINN, 92 COLIEMORE RD, DALKEY 2,500,000
21-08-15 28 Number 4 Bayswater Terrace, Sandycove, County Dublin 2,500,000
06-10-15 29 LISMALLON, WESTMINSTER RD, FOXROCK DUBLIN 18 2,500,000
11-09-15 30 Abbeylands, Marino Avenue West, Killiney 2,490,000
30-10-15 31 Clarendon, 46 Terenure Road East, Rathgar 2,450,000
04-06-15 32 72A Seafield Road East, Clontarf, Dublin 3 2,350,000
01-07-15 33 1 COLIEMORE VILLAS, DALKEY, DUBLIN 2,350,000
26-11-15 34 Marthas Vineyard, Coliemore Road, Dalkey 2,334,605
09-06-15 35 CHURCHTOWN HOUSE, WESTON PARK, CHURCHTOWN DUBLIN 14 2,300,000
15-12-15 36 Glen Ellen, Lehaunstown, Cabinteely 2,300,000
23-01-15 37 VICTORIA LODGE, 4 STILLORGAN RD, DONNYBROOK DUBLIN 4 2,250,000
11-11-15 38 Hollywood House, Mount Anville Road, Goatstown 2,250,000
16-11-15 39 17 ROSTREVOR RD, RATHGAR, DUBLIN 6 2,225,000
07-05-15 40 2 EDEN ROCK, DALKEY HARBOUR, DALKEY 2,200,000
23-10-15 41 Salerno, Military Road, Killiney 2,200,000
12-06-15 42 31 GLENART AVE, BLACKROCK, DUBLIN 2,150,000
29-01-15 43 1 CAMBRIDGE TCE, LEESON PARK, DUBLIN 6 2,101,000
01-04-15 44 38 WOODLANDS PARK, BLACKROCK, DUBLIN 2,050,000
01-07-15 45 Glenshee Torquay Road, Foxrock 2,050,000
11-09-15 46 10 SYDNEY AVE, BLACKROCK, DUBLIN 2,015,000
28-01-15 47 4 HYDE PARK, TERENURE, DUBLIN 6W 2,000,000
22-05-15 48 MONKSWELL, UPPER GLENAGEARY RD, GLENAGEARY 2,000,000
22-07-15 49 10 Ailesbury Wood, Ailesbury Road, Ballsbridge 2,000,000
23-10-15 50 4 ST MARYS ROAD, BALLSBRIDGE, DUBLIN 4. 2,000,000
18-12-15 51 THE LEYS, GLENAMUCK RD, CARRICKMINES DUBLIN 18 2,000,000
28-08-15 52 12 CARRICKMINES OAKS, BRENNANSTOWN RD, DUBLIN 18 1,950,000

NOTE - anything not on the above PPR list was either a:

  1. Not arms length “restructuring” sale (i.e. 32 Burlington Road for 5.5m)
  2. Commercial property sale (i.e. Abington Wood for 4.65m)
  3. Apartment block sale (there are many).
  4. Site sold for multi-family development (there are several in each year).
6

Looks good, and certainly seems to point to 2015 being closer to 2013 levels.

That said, the €1 - €2m market still seems quite hot right now in D4 and D6 from anecdotal experience, and when you think that we have apartments selling for €1,000/sqft in Ballsbridge, that type of figure was completely unheard of in 2013 - so it’s not just a tale of two markets, but a tale of 3 - in that €1m - €2m is hot and definitely not back to 2013 levels, with high prices achievable and then there’s the €2m+ market, which is lagging.

As you point out re sterling values, any serious change in the US$ and GB£ currency rates could have a detrimental affect on the high-end.

Even looking at 2015 top-10 list, there is a big reliance on foreign currency - the top two being sold to non-domestics and three of the other 5 I know the buyers of are also reliant on foreign currency.

  1. Sorrento House, 1 Sorrento Terrace, Killiney - €10,000,000 - UK Buyer (holiday home)
  2. Strathmore House, Strathmore Road, Killiney - €7,500,000 - American Buyer (who already has a house on Torquay Road)
  3. Carlanea, Thormanby Road, Baily, Howth - €5,000,000 - Irish
  4. Mugnano, 7 Shrewsbury Road, Ballsbridge - €4,800,000 - Dutch-based Irish
  5. 47 Sandford Road, Ranelagh - €4,350,000 - Irish barrister (I think)
  6. Sunnyside, Vico Road, Killiney - €4,350,000 - Not sure
  7. 61 Eglinton Road, Ballsbridge - €3,600,000 - Not sure
  8. 30 St Kevin’s Park, Dartry - €3,500,000 - Dublin/London-based (top international role at US private bank)
  9. Nerano House, Nerano Road, Dalkey - €3,300,000 - London-based property company
  10. Nutgrove, Richmond Avenue South, Dartry - €3,125,000 - Not sure
7

thanks and agreed SoCoDu.

thanks also for the above list - #4 was financed using a corporate loan (which based on the share price movement since, might not be that stable) ! #9 will ultimately turn out to be quasi-commercial but not 100% sure yet. Almost sure #10 is Irish family. No idea re #6 and #7 (hard to believe that #7 was Irish ?).

the market above even 1.6m, is only very slightly better than market above 2m (I posted on St Finbars earlier thepropertypin.com/viewtopic.php?f=10&p=870152, which is a LOWER price than 2013 equivalent, but also there are some other smaller sales in and around Ailesbury Road lately, that have really only repeated mid-2013 pricing.

i’m not that familiar with the market at or below 1.2m, so can’t comment re the Percy Place “hype”.
however, perhaps similar analysis might clarify whether the Percy Place hype is shown across the market.
i do know the mortgage market for +1m lot sizes is weaker now than it was in 2013.

As Jean Claude Junker famously said - “When it gets serious, you have to lie.”

8

Actually, I’m being forgetful - I do know who bought 61 Eglinton and they are a retired Irish couple in their mid-60s. They’re still trying to sell their own home (Mangerton, Westminster Road) for €2.75m with seemingly not much success:
sherryfitz.ie/residential/for-sale/49236

9

thanks SoCoDu, been dying to see the buyer of that one.

hard to work out really, and not have sold their existing one, why they were in such a rush to overpay?

did they not even attend the 61 Eglinton Road auction ? even the foreign buyers it seems gave #61 a miss.

Mangerton Foxrock will be a hard sell at 2.75m, when the vastly superior Windermere (7,000 sq ft of brand new, ultra high-end fit-out also on half an acre, on Westminster Road) only made just over 3m. thepropertypin.com/viewtopic.php?f=10&t=65784&p=870111&hilit=windermere#p870111

The money must not be an issue perhaps ?

10

I think when you’ve been CEO of Davy’s for 20 years, money probably shouldn’t be an issue. 8DD

11

ah Tony Garry.

good to see that he applies his “great” investment advice to himself as well.

a large beneficial loan from the Irish state in late 2011 to the Davy MBO partnership (which was deeply insolvent and fully PG’ed at time), in return for which Davy’s (i.e. our vampire squid) marketed Irish bonds worldwide, kept Tony from ending up in more modest digs.

Davy’s used this loan to double-down on long-term Irish sovereign debt @ 8% (having been aware from the NTMA of Draghi’s change of plan to change the ECB repo rules for PIIGs sovereign debt), and ride the repo all the way to 1%, and bail themselves out.

there is a “legend” in Davy’s that the “bond desk” saved them from liquidation in 2012, but it was really the Irish tax payer funding a one-way bet.

many of whom, are still paying for Davy’s “great” investment advice in the boom. :frowning:

12

wow - it was always a mystery how they got out of buying the business from BOI at the boom
probably the only good decision BOI made 05-07

13

Goodbody’s got sold for buttons, but the late 2006 316m top-of-market Davy’s MBO (fully financed and fully PG’ed with Anglo Irish Bank, which became fully owned by the Irish Taxpayer) of Davy’s has enabled it’s then CEO, to overpay for 61 Eglinton Road (and not even need to bridge the sale of his current home). He could have at least waited for the very rare foreclosures by an Irish bank of a Dublin high end house (i.e. Gorse Hill when it comes to market in 2025), and pay back something to the Irish tax payer for the generous gift ?

14

Irish Times article from Dec 2015 market.

Probably about as flat out bearish as you will ever get from the Irish “bubble” Property Media 8DD

“Property review 2015: Market adjusts to a new 'normal”
irishtimes.com/life-and-style/homes-and-property/property-review-2015-market-adjusts-to-a-new-normal-1.2459990

Under no circumstances would they ever print a headline saying:
“Average top 100 Dublin house sale in 2015 barely in line with 2013 (and well off 2014)”

15

Not to be dismissive, but who cares? I mean, I greatly enjoy your posts about the price dynamics of property porn, but I can’t say I really care.

This issue affects almost nobody, statistically speaking.

17

Has not been the case in Dublin over the last 18 months. I am noticing the sub 400k has increased overall while the higher end has been falling in the same period.

18

Property Porn is a great “tell” on how “domestic capital” and “international capital” feel about the future of an economy.

When it is red-hot (London in 2014, Australia & Canada in 2012-13 etc.), it is an incredibly reliable warning sign on all property.
When it is stone cold (per Dublin in 2010-12), is gives the opposite sign (again, on all property).

After a very strong 2014 in high-end Dublin, it has cooled off a lot (quite dramatically in my view).
“Domestic capital” has remained subdued since 2012, and i suspect “international capital” the problem.

If “international capital” (driving 90% of the actual real Irish GDP growth post the GFC - not the Apple / Google / Facebook “phantom / tax accounting” stuff that Kenny spouts, and is sponsoring all the cranes and hoardings around Dublin), changes it’s mind on Ireland, that will effect everything. There is plenty of evidence of “international capital” trying to get out of share positions on the ISEQ, and particularly in the REITs (with difficulty). It would be a real issue if the “international capital” thinks the value is over in Ireland, and goes somewhere else. Believe me, that will affect all property prices in Ireland.

However, if nothing else, it is entertainment !

20

11 Herbert Park, Ballsbridge, D4 just appeared on PPR for 2.5m
Another “benchmark” row in D4 printing a similar price to 2013 (if not 2012 / 2011).
thepropertypin.com/viewtopic.php?p=870787#p870787

21

The involvement of ‘ex-pats’ in this segment of the market might be indicative of it being difficult to make that kind of money domestically.

Ireland is a small market for any business and tax is high for big earners.

22

+STOP PRESS + STOP PRESS + STOP PRESS

Listed as sale agreed on Sherry site. Nice gaff, although I’d live with a set of ready-made Ikea curtains sooner than the ones fitted here

sherryfitz.ie/residential/for-sale/49236

23

I hope the prospective buyers of Mangerton, Westminister Road, Foxrock, can’t use the internet (or check the PPR) !

Otherwise they might see recent Windermere sale, a few doors down (same sized site + brand new high-end house @ 440 sq ft):
thepropertypin.com/viewtopic.php?f=10&t=65784&p=870111&hilit=windermere

Sherry Fitz will be hoping that the prospective buyers, are more likely ones that could fall for Patina, Mart Lane:
thepropertypin.com/viewtopic.php?f=10&t=65799&hilit=patina

24

That’s an interesting point. It reminds me of the truism that an asset class hasn’t bottomed until people really hate it.