EBS spins same mortgage lender prayer wheel

https://www.josephonesta.com/images/prayer_wheel.jpg

That’s the real joke of the piece!

From what I’m told by my Polish collegues, their mates are going home in droves! Others that have been laid off, but want to stay are finding it hard to find jobs, many have been here for years and have contacts all over the place, so if these guys can’t find jobs, what hope does anyone new to the country have? In the digital age it won’t take long for the word to get out and immigration will slow to a trickle. I’d be surprised if we’re not already in a position of net emmigration of the Polish community.

Jim Power recently said that next year may see only 20,000 completions. How would that tally up to an ongoing demand for 60,000 houses per year? Unless of course they’re taking all the thus far unacknowldeged empties into account…

January completions were almost 4900 down 16% on last year. Dublin and commuter belt completions were actually up 6 and 7% respectively. EBS and others seem to be extrapolating the 5k completions x 12 months = 60k. However starts began to really fall off a cliff around May last year which will start feeding into the completion figures in coming months. Starts fell to less than a 1000 in December.

How long on average does it take to complete a development, be it of houses or apartments?

9 months is taken generally as a start to completion timeline. It doesn’t always work out that way, for example you cannot complete an apartment block in phases so they can take 18 months+ to complete.

I’d tally with that. The last buying frenzy of new builds was in early '06, add 18months max generally and you get summer this year. (we exclude the likes of a certain Santry development from this as its taking 2 years to complete)

Expect mortgages from FTB’s to seriously fall off the cliff from then onwards as there was no frenzy to back it up, the lag factor.