ECB Rate - What's 'Normal' or Likely?

I used to always agree with that, but given you can now fix for two years on a rate that is lower than the SVR, it really does make the decision difficult. It is very unlikely to see the bank dropping the SVR.

Thanks for all the input. Had a chat with a few friends last night and it seems they are completely oblivious to what is coming down the line.

A good snapshot of the general population then.

If I had to guess I’d say the main refi rate will be <=1% for the next decade. Presuming all current members of the Eurozone remain.

Can’t see them rising anytime soon either, one of the key ECB indicators of future inflation is the direction of present unemployment. Unemployment has risen in the Euro area in 2012 and is expect to rise by another 1% this year, this will but downward presure on wage inflation due to supply and demand of labour which will leads to lower future inflation.

The ECB also has no intention of quantitative easing ( unless it has too to save the currency) and is not getting involved in the current Currency war which is making the euro appreciate, this will also leads to lower future inflation. I can’t see rates rising much and I think the base rate will remain under 2% for the next 5 or so years.

I don’t have anything to say about the ECB rate or where it’s going, but I’m originally from Germany and have been living in Ireland for many years. I’m just starting to look into buying a house over here, and my parents nearly fell off their chairs when I told them about the mortgage rates over here. You can get a 20 year mortgage at around 3% in Germany - the lowest I’ve seen was around 2.8% and the highest just below 4%. :open_mouth:

10 year bonds excluding the IPIGS are all sub 2%.

ECB target inflation rate close to but under 2%.

Hence IMO lower term ECB rate sub 2%.

I noticed last night Danske bank have a 10 yr 5.5% fixed rate. Anyone know if they are actually lending. Given there’s been a couple of rumours the AIB SRV could be at this level in about 2 years, this doesn’t seem to bad. Also the BOI 10yr rate is higher btw.

i was talking to them last September about a mortgage … they said i’d need to supply 30% of the price of the house towards the purchase , plus have equivalent of 10% of house value left in my account after purchase was complete, before they would consider you for a mortgage …that’s 6 months ago , dunno what it’s like there now …