ECB Watch '22

He meant 4.90 for 2year but it’s the movement that is interesting

You or I could run the ECB when it comes to setting rates, simplest set of rules ever

Citibank’s Matt King on where equity inflation is still coming from during QT.

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Deepest Bond Yield Inversion Since Volcker Suggests Hard Landing

  • US 2-year yield exceeds 10-year by a full percentage point

  • Upside-down bond market anticipates Fed policy doing damage

The bond market is doubling down on the prospect of a US recession after Federal Reserve Chair Jerome Powell warned of a return to bigger interest-rate hikes to cool inflation and the economy.

As swaps traders price in a full percentage point of Fed hikes over the next four meetings, the yield on two-year Treasury notes touched 5.04% on Wednesday, its highest level since 2007. Critically, longer-dated yields remained stalled, with the 10-year rate remaining under 4%, while 30-year bonds have barely budged since Friday.

As a result, the closely-watched spread between 2- and 10-year yields showed a discount larger than a percentage point for the first time since 1981, when then-Fed Chair Paul Volcker was engineering hikes that broke the back of double-digit inflation at the cost of a lengthy recession. A similar dynamic is unfolding now, according to Ken Griffin, the chief executive officer and founder of hedge fund giant Citadel.

“We have the setup for a recession unfolding” as the Fed responds to inflation, Griffin said in an interview in Palm Beach, Florida.

Deepest Bond Yield Inversion Since Volcker Suggests Hard Landing - Bloomberg

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Libor Cracks 5% for First Time Since ‘07, Spurred by Fed Outlook

(Bloomberg) – The three-month London interbank offered rate for dollars, a major global lending benchmark, surpassed 5% for the first time in more than 15 years on Monday.

The benchmark rate for lending between banks rose 2.4 basis points to 5.008%, the highest since December 2007. The spread of Libor over overnight index swaps — a barometer of funding pressure — widened to 3.2 basis points on Monday from 1.7 basis points the prior session.

Much of the recent surge in Libor, which is set to be phased out on June 30, has been driven by expectations for Federal Reserve policy tightening. Traders not only expect a higher terminal rate, but the central bank to remain at that level for a longer period than previously expected.

Libor Cracks 5% for First Time Since ‘07, Spurred by Fed Outlook (


Any idea can we buy US treasury bills if EU based? 1-year t-bills paying >5% at the minute and as zero risk as you can get when backed by US Gov

ECB will follow the lead.


“We will restore that price stability and we will do whatever it takes,” she said.

“Those that are the prime victims of high inflation are the underprivileged, the vulnerable,” she said. “It’s not a pretty situation.”

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Never been able to find this myself but you can get US Treasury ETF’s on Degiro trading platform.


You can buy bonds on Interactive Brokers.

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Cheers. Have you used them?

I use interactive brokers and have permission to buy US bonds/tresuries, but ive not done so yet.

The IBKR platform TWS is a beast, it is built for high volume traders and it takes a bit of getting used to.

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Anyone any other suggestions that might be for regular people? Something that might be low volume, less complex. If not, I might download Magpie’s suggestion.

If IBKRs full on desktop app is too daunting, their mobile app is actually quite intuitive. Once you know which security you want to buy, it’s pretty easy.

Adults in charge there?

The interest on the interest is in your best possible interest, or so they say.

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