ECB Watch


In the tradition of me getting it wrong, I’m saying no cut…


+1 No Cut

I have a vested interest in being wrong! :smiley:


Yeah, maybe Draghi will disappoint the market with more cheap talk tomorrow, however, at the very least, he surely will lay the ground for a March cut.


isn’t this all a bit academic when you read reports like this. … -1.1680548


You were right for once :slight_smile:

Cut still might be on the cards for March.


Yep, no change … 06.en.html


Draghi has, as good as, said that the cut will be in March. … eeded.html


Here comes a March rate reduction …

Draghi Highlights Importance of March ECB Meeting … 58520.html


All for one and one for all? The roles of microprudential, macroprudential, and monetary policy in safeguarding financial stability - Dr Jens Weidmann President of the Deutsche Bundesbank -> … dmann.html

Whither the Euro? - Kevin Hjortshøj O’Rourke -> … rourke.htm
March 2014

#1990 … YM20140306

#1991 … AO20140313 … HT20140313


Eurostat cut Eurozone Feb inflation to 0.7% from 0.8%, back to Oct level that prompted last rate cut.


False hope. Core inflation remained at 1%. Fall in headline measure to 0.7% induced by fall in energy prices, something no central bank has control over. 0.7% also is by no means out of sync with the ECB medium term outlook for inflation.

A further rate cut will be brought about if current economic condition worsen which is highly unlikely given the solid start we’ve had to Q1.


Do you think the ECB has effectively admitted a dual mandate role for itself?


No I don’t think thats the case at all. A dual mandate would incorporate inflation an some other metric (i.e unempoyment rate, growth ect.). A weaker € may be something they target(and comes naturally with further easing) but they won’t goes as far as to explicitly render it a madate like the Swiss.


There is Maneuvering Room on interest rates … 96078.html

Meanwhile, GS have said they expect a 15 bps cut to both the repo and deposit rate at the April meeting.


Is there nothing to be said for another mass?


Huh? Do you mean miss!?

Maybe, it will be a miss again, but the near term future direction of rates is clearly downward. Timing, of a cut, is the only question.


Disinflation gathers pace. 0.50% YoY inflation.

Surely, Thursday will see rate action by the ECB and not more cheap talk?


I’d have thought it very likely to be cut alright after hearing it dropped to 0.5% … inflation/