ECB Watch


#1981

In the tradition of me getting it wrong, I’m saying no cut…


#1982

+1 No Cut

I have a vested interest in being wrong! :smiley:


#1983

Yeah, maybe Draghi will disappoint the market with more cheap talk tomorrow, however, at the very least, he surely will lay the ground for a March cut.


#1984

isn’t this all a bit academic when you read reports like this.
irishtimes.com/business/sect … -1.1680548


#1985

You were right for once :slight_smile:

Cut still might be on the cards for March.


#1986

Yep, no change
ecb.europa.eu/press/pr/date/ … 06.en.html


#1987

Draghi has, as good as, said that the cut will be in March.

bloomberg.com/news/2014-02-0 … eeded.html


#1988

Here comes a March rate reduction …

Draghi Highlights Importance of March ECB Meeting

online.wsj.com/news/articles/SB1 … 58520.html


#1989

All for one and one for all? The roles of microprudential, macroprudential, and monetary policy in safeguarding financial stability - Dr Jens Weidmann President of the Deutsche Bundesbank -> bundesbank.de/Redaktion/EN/R … dmann.html

Whither the Euro? - Kevin Hjortshøj O’Rourke -> imf.org/external/pubs/ft/fan … rourke.htm
March 2014


#1990

uk.reuters.com/article/2014/03/0 … YM20140306


#1991

reuters.com/article/2014/03/ … AO20140313

reuters.com/article/2014/03/ … HT20140313


#1992

Eurostat cut Eurozone Feb inflation to 0.7% from 0.8%, back to Oct level that prompted last rate cut.


#1993

False hope. Core inflation remained at 1%. Fall in headline measure to 0.7% induced by fall in energy prices, something no central bank has control over. 0.7% also is by no means out of sync with the ECB medium term outlook for inflation.

A further rate cut will be brought about if current economic condition worsen which is highly unlikely given the solid start we’ve had to Q1.


#1994

Do you think the ECB has effectively admitted a dual mandate role for itself?


#1995

No I don’t think thats the case at all. A dual mandate would incorporate inflation an some other metric (i.e unempoyment rate, growth ect.). A weaker € may be something they target(and comes naturally with further easing) but they won’t goes as far as to explicitly render it a madate like the Swiss.


#1996

There is Maneuvering Room on interest rates

online.wsj.com/news/articles/SB1 … 96078.html

Meanwhile, GS have said they expect a 15 bps cut to both the repo and deposit rate at the April meeting.


#1997

Is there nothing to be said for another mass?


#1998

Huh? Do you mean miss!?

Maybe, it will be a miss again, but the near term future direction of rates is clearly downward. Timing, of a cut, is the only question.


#1999

Disinflation gathers pace. 0.50% YoY inflation.

Surely, Thursday will see rate action by the ECB and not more cheap talk?


#2000

I’d have thought it very likely to be cut alright after hearing it dropped to 0.5%
rte.ie/news/business/2014/03 … inflation/