ECB Watch


How the Euro was (Really) Saved - Doug Noland -> … saved.html

Reliving the euro’s most crucial moments with Peter Spiegel - -> … 014_539972

How the Euro Was Saved - ->


FT: ECB to tackle deflation threat with rate cut on Thursday … ff&tbm=nws


insanity - in the Einstein measure of the word

ECB should directly fund infrastructure in nations with excessive output gaps - and tell the Germans to stick it.

i.e ECB could purchase bonds of European Investment Bank which would have remit for wide, large scale, infrastructure developments across periphery
this is version of QE but would actually work – unlike the US version which is an asset swap and works by placebo on asset prices.


Absolutely. It would also, on the political side, help patch up the euro project, show Europe is doing stuff, and put funding behind some of the directives that come out of the EU (e.g. on water quality, carbon reduction etc.). Germany shouldn’t be too worried as much of the ‘equipment’ would likely have benefits for the German economy.




Conventional monetary policy, i.e. rate cuts, definitely matter.

Conventional policy should be fully exhausted before the ECB embark on targeted SME LTRO and thereafter targeted QE.

Slower German inflation seen raising pressure on ECB to act … sinessNews


I understand why they think they work. They’re just wrong. Wrong diagnosis, wrong treatment, likely even wrong paradigm.

Just amazed that the masses haven’t cottoned on to it yet.


ECB rate cut near certain as manufacturing figures slip … 23308.html


ECB cuts deposit rate below zero - via @FT

EUR USD down to 1.3560 odd


ECB Rate cut to 0.15% … 32053.html


a historic move to negative deposit rates and Charlie and the gang focus on the delight for mortgage holders.


Is a measly 0.10% drop really going to do much?


Not to the individual but presumably it helps banks who’s loans books are not full of trackers.


Going to stop sterilization of SMP (repos) too-> more cash into system


It’s a 40% drop :smiley:


Bad news for SVR customers.


When you’ve only one bullet left you’ve gotta start cutting it in half!


Double post


Aren’t they all full of trackers in Ireland?


all in all, only certainty is this will drag sovereign yields lower; and risk assets get bid as yield comparison more in their favour - i.e the discount rate drops
[e.g apartment in Dublin bringing in 25k p/a in rent; yield comparison is [i]now 2.5% for Irish 10yr, that was 3% not two months ago; 5.5% yield on that apartment gives price of €455k - but chop 50 basis points off that and you’re at, what, €500k.]

Big macro question is: will the subsequent divergence between US yields and Euro yields be enough to get the Specs shorting the € in large enough size to counter the constant €’s bought due to the persistent trade surplus. If so then weaker € is economic positive (for eurozone, negative for everybody else). If not, then € strengthens again - thanks to relentless trade surplus.