ECB Watch

They said they were abandoning code words.

Yes, specifically they said they found the use of code-words too accommodating and will employ strong vigilance in their choice of words in future.

Indeed - they said it, but i thought they still used them leading up to last rise.

Either way, they can’t ignore M3 at 10.7% for long - that’s so far above their target of 4.5% to be unfunny. If they let inflation get that far out of control, they’d resign out of shame.

I’d still bet on a 0.25% rise in September and another in December.

The form of words used is the same as previous months, it’s a steady as she goes rather than bearish or bullish statement. … 0524.shtml

That’s that one nailed. December however, still looks increasingly likely, imo.

That’s some damn serious “up-side risk” for the ECB to consider. Even looking at M3 alone, I’m convinced we’ll go beyond 4.5%. This kinda stuff just reaffirms that belief.

Turns out there’s nothing to worry about after all. The new poster boy of Irish Housing Junior Minister for Housing Batt O’Keeffe was just on the Last Word and mentioned that the interest rate rise expected in June (!?) won’t now happen till October.

Well that’s a weight off my shoulders. Phew!!

:laughing: :laughing: :laughing:

Is this the world’s first example of Central Banker Humour?

They have no intention of changing your humour expectations…

I heard that interview and this guy makes Comical sound like a real expert. :open_mouth:
If these are the guys we now have in gov. then god help us all.It will give the words “crash management” a whole new meaning.

Conor those figures from Europe don’t look too good for rates at all at all :cry: and that’s on top of the growing list we have talked about earlier.

If wages are pciking up so fast in Eastern Europe then the migrants that are here will be quick to belt off home and those still at home will be in no rush to come over here.

UB predicting onlu one more rate increase and that’ll be that…

Do posters agree that the falling $ v € will ensure that fewer rate increases will be required? Stong Euro v Inflation?? What are other banks in the EU and the bond markets expecting?

I think we’ve all stopped listening to the Irish Vested interests as to what is going on and will wait to see what the other EU analysts seem to think if anyone finds some interesting analysis.

FAIK it could be well research analysis but it seems to me as a general rule the lies & mis-representation has created a “pinocchio” culture in the PR depts of the BANKS.

It’s always just one more increase. They’ll get it right eventually and usually what happens is the happy economist appears beaming on TV as if he is some sort of interest rate sage and investors pile money into said economists financial institution so as to gain some of the wealth that must accrue to such financial genius. Sadly in the Internet age we have people keeping track of previous predictions.

Key words missing…

“this year”

I reckon the 4.5% by the end of the year is unrealistic now, just going on what Trichet was saying but I’d say we’d probably see the quarter percent extra after Xmas.

I’d agree with TUG, I feel September and January will be the next ones. The financial markets have aready pretty much penciled in Sept/Oct one. The risks are still seriously to the upside though with the high M3 level and $70 (min) oil may become a norm rather than a spike. G Wubya sent another carrier to join the fleet over in the gulf, that’s worth a few bucks a barrel on it’s own. The analysts quote geopolitical tensions as pushing up oil but to be honest I feel that if that boll*x over there decided to butcher another 100000 arabs, all betters are off.
It always amazes me the apathy people have towards world matters, when they could affect us just as much in not more due to our inconceivable exposure to internation debt. :unamused:

God bless the Celtic Ostrich.

Since we are in the money section, I flogged my Kingspan and AIB before the election. The broker (nice bloke) questioned my decision citing AIB’s polish division and Kingspan’s UK growth. I told him I would touch either of them with a barge pole at those levels considering what we will face for the next 12 months. Got a nice few quid out of the two of them in the run though. :wink:

Well done, I tried to get the old man to offload his AIB when they hit 23. He had said previously that he would sell once they hit 20 but he never got around to it. I think he has turned somewhat bullish after always been a bear (from 99 onwards). He figures that Irish property is 60% overvalued but then doesn’t bother offloading AIB, I have given up talking about it with him… :unamused:

I think you might just have coined *the *phrase of 2007 my friend!

Tell me about it that generation is very hard to communicate with sometimes, they have very conflicted view points "ah I can’t X letting it happen… " or simply “I just can’t see it …” very bloody conservative, yes with age somewhat btu how can they not be cycnical witht he last 30 years of messing, oh yea I forgot they’re all accidental property millionaries, they don’ give a flying monkeys :wink: