Economic Growth forecasts

H/T you know yourself…

Meanwhile Karl Whelan looks at the EU’s growth projections:
irisheconomy.ie/index.php/20 … commission’s-view-of-ireland/

The fecking pencil-pushers can play with damn numbers until the bloody cows come home but until someone’s actually out there plowing the fecking fields there ain’t gonna be no corn growing.

Dwight D. Eisenhower (Five-star general in the United States Army, top military leader during WW II and the 34th President of the United States, 1890 - 1969):
“Farming looks mighty easy when your plow is a pencil and you’re a thousand miles from the corn field.”

[mod edit: SPAM]

And here are the E&Y forecasts:
ftalphaville.ft.com/blog/2010/12 … nd-doomed/

Aside from the headling, the summary is:
2010 -1.5%
2011 -2.3%
2012 0.9%
2013 2.1%
2014 2.5%

(Real GDP).
(Since we will have CPI deflation into 2012 according to the E&Y forecast, that makes the figures a little grimmer. The euro as a whole is not deflating, so the Irish economy, as euro users, will suffer more in growth terms… I think :confused: It does, however, make continued adjustment a little easier).

Personally, I think those are respectable enough figures. Link to the E&Y document in the FTA post…

The E&Y forecast is broadly positive:

+1 Not bad

Just for the record, I see these figures as optimistic.

The numbers look realistic, but im not sure about the downward wage flexibility. With higher taxes, the more educated and mobile will be attracted abroad. But the deflation enviroment we are in would probably make people more likely to accept wage reductions.

How far does this push the government debt projections / 4 year plan?

I’m not sure it matters any more. We are now wards of the EU and the program is agreed to them. If the program doesn’t work, it is no longer our fault, provided we stick to the plan. The Germans love a plan and are loathe to ditch one before its expiry date, even if it looks likely it is not going to work out.

But Lenny’s bullshit growth rates are an integral part of the plan. If we don’t meet the growth rate then we will be forced to liquidate the assets of the State to keep the plan on the tracks.

“With higher taxes, the more educated and mobile will be attracted abroad”
Taxes are no higher than the UK, Germany or France. value for the taxpayer in Ireland is cr@p obviously.

Yes, the growth rates are part of the plan and have been signed off by the other monkeys.

I doubt the other state owned enterprises in the other bureaucracies will countenance forced sales elsewhere (too much precedent involved). Except maybe to their own state owned enterprises. And they won’t be able to agree who gets them…

It mightn’t matter, but will this?

irishtimes.com/newspaper/bre … ing23.html

If the projections are optimistic and this is signed off - does it mean that even a structured default is off the table?

Pah, 85 million? Sure we’re raise that by a sight tax… we’ve already cut payments to the blind.

And that is where the good sports bit comes in. We get to carry our sick banks for a while longer until Europe figures out what to do with the rest of the sick banks.

I thought it was simply a way to tie us in regardless of what happens after 2013.

I don’t believe there’s anything being done, or that has been done, that cannot be undone.

:laughing: no, thats not a Harry Houdini quote.

Capital is fleeing the country and being held offshore why is anyone expecting growth?

E-Books : Capital Flows and Crises by Barry Eichengreen -> dl4all.com/e_books/25212-cap … green.html

Did you see it being loaded in with forklifts? See it in the hold of the ship?
Nothing is fleeing the country, being held offshore.
When I was young lad, one of my teachers held up a twenty dollar Canadian bill in class and asked us all, “can anybody tell me what this is worth?” We all excitidly said “twenty dollars!”. he smiled, and told us we were right, but we were wrong. We looked at him puzzled. Then he snapped it a few times and said" Its nothing but a piece of paper with ink. If you were hungry, you couldn’t eat it. If you were cold, you could burn it, but it wouldnt make enough heat for a second. You couldnt wear it to keep warm." Then he gave us words of wisdom I never forgot. " It’s only a piece of paper with numbers, its only worth the FAITH you put in it"
The Indians gave up Manhattan island for a few beads. We’re not really going to give up our country for a few numbers and a truckload of bullshit are we?

:laughing: +1.

Hopefully not :stuck_out_tongue:

Hmmm. Homespun hokum. Try running an econonmy without a means of exchange.