Economic tremors in the West reach China

a japanese friend told that it was bad luck to talk about bad things that might happen because by merely mentioning it, it would happen. i wonder if the same thinking applies to china?

Yeah, probably. Theyre obsessed with luck over there in China. Even the central bank avoids certain numbers. They only set interest rates at numbers that are divisible by 9, because 9 is a lucky number.

Weren’t all the VIs peddling the same line here for the last few years, up to and including recommending that they go commit suicide.

Anyone know how to say “Talk if up” in Mandarin?
8)

谈论被夸大的结果

Is that ‘Talk if up’ or ‘Talk it up’ there GB … ??? :stuck_out_tongue:

Details … !!! :wink:

They say China needs about a 6-7% growth rate just to stand still. Any less than that and the hoards of rural migrants to the cities will start getting restless. China in my opinion has a leveraged bet going on the western economies continued rude consumption. The Chinese economy is the other side of the coin to the US and EU economies, it cant grow unless they do. If the export engine grinds to a halt what will take its place? The Chinese consumer? The Chinese Government. Not likely. The Chinese consumer isn’t earning enough, can’t borrow enough and isn’t inclined to spend enough to keep the economy going at nearly its current rate of growth. The Chinese Government can take steps to invest in infrastructure but no amount of infrastructure spending will make up for an export slow down.

China could face serious social and political unrest if the growth rate drops and unemployment starts rising. Rising unemployment coupled with the inevitable high inflation brought about by China’s currency manipulation is a recipe for violent unrest. My prediction is that if the US and EU go into an even moderately severe recession, China will be lining up rioters and shooting them in the streets. Olympics or not China is run by a brutally oppressive regime that will stop at nothing to keep control. They may have gone a step to far with the free market economy and its going to be difficult and bloody to put that genie back in the bottle.

bloomberg.com/apps/news?pid= … refer=home

Remind me again who buys most of the US treasuries and GSE debt?

Anyone else have a historical parallel when one country in the world was doing all the exporting and soaking up all the money from the rest of the world? Does anyone think that a fiat currency is any different to gold in this situation?

Japan in the 80’s?

Didn’t they have an inflation spike just before deflation kicked in - I remember reading an article which suggested the Japanese central bank was caught looking the wrong way when deflation struck.

Germany is the world’s largest exporter. Or so my buddies in the CIA tell me:

cia.gov/library/publication … 8rank.html

According to this, China accounts for just under 10% of World exports. Is this what you mean by one country doing all the exporting?

Japan in the eighties is good, I was thinking of the US in the twenties. Huge balance of payments surplus, lots of money coming in, not much for it to do other than speculate. On everything. Land, industry, the stock market, farming, the whole nine yards.

Germany is, I think (I hope) a little different as it imports as well as exports.