no i’m starting to get worried
Follow up piece
The boom is getting boomier - a quick take on the GDP figures
Why are you getting worried? Economic growth is good news. There is still slack in the economy, and huge investment needs.
Allow me to be the first to say “soft landing”.
What on earth does that mean? It’s a great soundbite anyway. Sounds like something Brendan Howlin would say.
Unemployment is near 9%… that’s what it means.
Why is that “slack”?
yeah but what’s the unemployment rate near where the jobs are and are rents low enough to allow people move from where unemployment is high?
The construction unemployment rate is still high for a growing economy and for a growing population.
But it’s low for a country with no government that doesn’t have many real exports other than tax avoidance. So you could argue that there’s “slack in the unemployment rate”.
GDP. It’s not real for most people. Any GDP measure for ireland is useless and dangerous as it doesn’t reflect true economic activity here. But it’s a great base when you’re trying to massage the message for the masses. GDP growth. GDP per capita, debt to GDP. Should come with health warnings on the packet.
There’s some slack in the unemployment figures. Sorry, slackers, knackers, won’t get off their scratchers.
I’m guessing the worry (a very real one) is that we squandered the last boom and will squander the next
Ah, that for sure is inevitable. The question is, should we squander it properly this time on titties and beer?
Remember folks, if you owe more than 5 million then they’re working for you!
These are a very impressive set of numbers. FDI and domestic sectirs growing strongly, with households feeling the impact with consumption well up.
Fiscal planning as hazardous as ever in Ireland with numbers as unexpectedly good as these.
Recently graduated daughter has just got a full-time job paying pretty well for a 23-year old living at home with the parents (starting at 34K and a short commute.) All of her immediate circle of friends are sorted too - and all working in Dublin. (They range from nursing and civil engineering to accountancy and marketing.)
A neighbour has just told me her daughter and boyfriend are returning from London after three years as he’s been offered a position (IT - I think.) Various friends’ kids in their early twenties seem to be all doing well in the employment stakes with no talk of emigration. Anecdotal stuff, I know, but it’s hard not to get the impression that things are well on the up…
Agree that things are on the up - if you’re well qualified. Not convinced it’s the same for manual labour. But the real question is, will it stay on the up.
Unemployment is definitely dropping, which will stimulate consumption and drive the figures up further, and drive unemployment down further and so on. Taxes will fall, assuming things are looking okay at the end of the year, again increasing consumption further. More mortgages will move out of arrears, allowing banks to drop rates a bit if they feel like it or get a bit of competition, once again increasing consumption. We have room for a mini-boom, just getting back some of what was lost in the crash, really. Obviously the growth rate’s unsustainable, though, and it could all come unstuck very quickly if Brexit or Trump or various other outside influences happen.