Economy in Recession in Q4

Data just out that the economy declined in Q4 by -0.8% GDP and -2.2% GNP from Q3. Thats are a sharp recession which will no doubt be confirmed by Q1 08 figures. I will post further details later.

Is this the Irish economy we are talking about here?

Yes it is the Irish economy though the figures look American!

Here’s what I’ve found on Bloomberg

     March 20 (Bloomberg) -- Following is a summary of the fourth quarter
GDP for Ireland from the Central Statistics Office in Dublin:
*T
==============================================================================
                               4Q      3Q      2Q      1Q      4Q      3Q
                             2007    2007    2007    2007    2006    2006
==============================================================================
                          -------------- YoY Percentage Changes --------------
GDP                          3.5%    3.8%    5.4%    8.3%    4.6%    8.1%
GNP                          1.2%    5.6%    4.5%    7.1%    5.4%    5.6%
GDP at Constant
    Factor Cost              3.9%    4.1%    5.5%    8.6%    4.5%    8.2%
                          ------ Sector of Origin YoY Percentage Changes -----
Agriculture etc.           -12.0%  -14.4%   -8.5%   -4.1%  -12.7%  -12.1%
Industry                     5.0%    6.5%    1.4%   15.1%    1.0%    7.0%
Transport etc.               4.5%    6.1%    6.4%    6.9%    5.8%    3.9%
Defence etc.                 2.1%    2.2%    2.4%    1.3%    3.1%    3.5%
Other Services               6.7%    6.0%    6.1%    6.2%    6.9%    7.3%
Taxes less subsidies         0.4%    2.1%    5.2%    6.2%    5.8%    7.1%
==============================================================================
                               4Q      3Q      2Q      1Q      4Q      3Q
                             2007    2007    2007    2007    2006    2006
==============================================================================
Personal consumption         4.4%    6.3%    5.7%    5.5%    5.9%    3.6%
Net goods and services       5.8%    5.8%    6.9%    8.3%    4.9%    5.3%
Capital formation          -12.3%   -6.9%    7.7%   12.3%    2.3%    6.9%
Exports                      9.3%    8.0%    7.1%    8.3%    3.3%    4.6%
Imports                      6.3%    7.8%    3.7%    7.6%    3.7%    0.9%
                          ------------- Level (Millions of Euros) ------------
GDP                        44,650  44,344  44,989  45,763  43,128  42,702
GNP                        37,621  37,467  37,740  38,250  37,184  35,466
GDP at Constant
    Factor Cost            39,578  39,028  39,747  40,093  38,077  37,493
                          ---- Sector of Origin Level (Millions of Euros) ----
Agriculture etc.              501     702   1,304     961     569     820
Industry                   13,988  13,477  14,225  14,690  13,326  12,649
Transport etc.              6,155   6,112   5,901   5,961   5,889   5,759
Defence etc.                1,378   1,389   1,345   1,276   1,349   1,359
Other Services             18,254  17,741  17,098  16,895  17,115  16,744
Taxes less subsidies        5,073   5,316   5,242   5,670   5,051   5,209
==============================================================================
                               4Q      3Q      2Q      1Q      4Q      3Q
                             2007    2007    2007    2007    2006    2006
==============================================================================
Personal consumption       22,242  20,879  20,931  21,175  21,313  19,634
Net goods and services      6,512   6,466   6,318   6,382   6,154   6,113
Capital formation           9,755  10,012  10,906  12,771  11,126  10,752
Value of changes stocks        87    -183     -90      49     327     137
Exports                    39,018  36,969  36,939  36,324  35,689  34,227
Imports                   -33,661 -30,192 -30,142 -30,626 -31,652 -27,998
NFI from Rest of World     -7,029  -6,877  -7,249  -7,513  -5,944  -7,236
==============================================================================

And seasonally adjusted

==============================================================================
                               4Q      3Q      2Q      1Q      4Q      3Q
                             2007    2007    2007    2007    2006    2006
==============================================================================
                          -------------- QoQ Percentage Changes --------------
GDP                         -0.8%    1.2%   -1.4%    4.8%   -0.9%    3.1%
GNP                         -2.2%    1.4%   -1.0%    3.3%    1.9%    0.3%
GDP at Constant
    Factor Cost             -1.3%    1.8%   -2.0%    5.7%   -1.3%    3.2%
                          ------ Sector of Origin QoQ Percentage Changes -----
Agriculture etc.             1.0%   -9.4%   -3.9%    1.0%   -0.8%   -6.5%
Industry                    -3.1%    4.7%   -7.7%   12.5%   -2.3%    0.0%
Transport etc.               0.8%    0.8%    0.9%    2.0%    2.5%    0.9%
Defence etc.                 0.3%    0.8%    1.3%   -0.4%    0.3%    1.1%
Other Services               1.8%    1.8%    1.2%    1.7%    1.2%    1.9%
Taxes less subsidies        -2.4%   -1.0%   -0.3%    4.6%   -1.3%    2.3%
==============================================================================
                               4Q      3Q      2Q      1Q      4Q      3Q
                             2007    2007    2007    2007    2006    2006
==============================================================================
Personal consumption         0.8%    0.8%    1.3%    1.4%    2.8%    0.1%
Net goods and services       0.8%    0.4%    0.7%    4.2%    0.5%    1.1%
Capital formation           -5.4%   -5.5%   -9.9%    9.1%    0.3%    9.2%
Exports                      1.6%    2.5%   -0.5%    5.6%    0.1%    2.0%
Imports                      2.0%    3.5%   -1.8%    2.5%    3.7%   -0.4%
                          ------------- Level (Millions of Euros) ------------
GDP                        44,783  45,157  44,619  45,245  43,153  43,551
GNP                        37,312  38,151  37,639  38,032  36,806  36,133
GDP at Constant
    Factor Cost            39,377  39,903  39,195  40,011  37,845  38,341
                          ---- Sector of Origin Level (Millions of Euros) ----
Agriculture etc.              813     805     889     925     915     923
Industry                   13,822  14,258  13,612  14,750  13,111  13,421
Transport etc.              6,107   6,057   6,011   5,958   5,840   5,700
Defence etc.                1,360   1,356   1,344   1,327   1,331   1,327
Other Services             17,937  17,618  17,315  17,104  16,820  16,625
Taxes less subsidies        5,199   5,328   5,379   5,398   5,162   5,232
==============================================================================
                               4Q      3Q      2Q      1Q      4Q      3Q
                             2007    2007    2007    2007    2006    2006
==============================================================================
Net goods and services      6,482   6,434   6,410   6,364   6,109   6,076
Capital formation           9,817  10,378  10,988  12,196  11,174  11,135
Value of changes stocks         7     181    -295     -33     245     528
Exports                    38,190  37,583  36,654  36,833  34,882  34,850
Imports                   -31,989 -31,375 -30,327 -30,877 -30,137 -29,052
NFI from Rest of World     -7,305  -7,186  -7,037  -7,164  -6,151  -7,599
==============================================================================

Wow. Looks like my -1.5% growth prediction for 08 is on the optimistic side :open_mouth:

Okay so, Sidey’s Mad Predictions Time - I’m improving my GNP growth forcast to a robust -6.3% for 08…and worse in 09.

Well, when the ESRI said 1.6% for the year I did a mental ESRI adjustment and started to panic… we are definitly in a recession if ESRI think we are only growing by 1.6%!

The first 3 Q’s of 08 are going to look mad alright but Q4 will bring it back. The ‘real’ GNP economy was growing at an annualised 1.2% in Q4. I think you are now looking at a -1.5 to -3% GNP growth for 08. Then again with me being the eternal optimist you could be right Sidey!

Why will Q4 bring it all back kerry? I’ve been hearing predictions of a rebound in late 08/09, what are the basis for these?

Because the 07 Q4 figures were so bad it would need to be really really really bad in Q4 08 to produce a further negative figure not bring up the annual figure over the first 3 Q’s. Just the same as the 5% overall 07 figure masks that annualised growth in Q4 was down to 1.2% from 7.1% in Q1.

Holy crap!, I wasn’t expecting negative GDP here for another 12-24 months if at all, how can we already have negative GDP with unemployment in low single digits?

businessworld.ie/livenews.htm?a=2080995;s=rollingnews.htm

businessworld.ie/livenews.htm?a=2081281;s=rollingnews.htm

Weren’t you lot supposed to have killed yourselves? Get with the program!

And this in a quarter were borrowing was up to 16bn.

Jaysus Pill, that article is some load of spoofing, isn’t it?

Our total exports to the entire BRIC block plus SA and Mexico are a measly 3bn, and just half of that to Eastern Europe, with the US and UK economies collapsing as I type and us far too expensive to sell much of anything to Western Europe, and Japan still in deflation mode.

We’re completely feckin screwed this year. 94% of the trading sector of the economy is about to go up in smoke :open_mouth:

Stupid Question time but does a recession not require two consecutive quarters of negative real growth? Do these figures not indicate a significant slowing of real growth as opposed to an actual contraction of the economy? Apologies for the abc nature of the question but it would be appreciated if someone could spell out the significance of the yoy figures as opposed to the top table :blush:

Yes two Qs are required but as all the data for Q1 indicates recession then we can surmise that Q4 07 and Q1 08 will both be negative meaning we are presently in recession. We will have to wait for the official data at the end of June to absolutely confirm it. The data released today shows the economy contracted in Q4 from Q3 by -0.8% in GDP terms and -2.2% in GNP terms. Thats a sharp one Q contraction.

But are those figures not taken from the yoy figures as opposed to the other table which appear to be figures for actual levels of growth?

Its the Q on Q figures that are used to indicte recession and the Irish economy contracted from Q3 to Q4 by the figures quoted.

Cheers - but I meant whats the difference between the seasonally adjusted figures (I typed yoy by mistake) and the first table which still indicates positive levels of growth?