Economy to weather housing downturn: AIB

Pill · October 23, 2007, 4:14pm

The Irish economy is to weather downturn in the housing market, according to AIB Global Treasury services.

John Begg, chief economist at AIB Global Treasury said, "international bodies such as the IMF and S and P have warned about the downside risks to the economy from the fall in housing output. However, we must remember that the Irish housing market remains extremely well underpinned by demographic factors and a robust labour market
"What has changed most of all in the Irish housing market over the past twelve months is the urgency to buy. With house prices no longer rising at a rapid pace, potential buyers can now take their time about this important purchase. It is only a matter of time before the market finds its feet and demand conditions improve.

“Though the ECB continues to threaten to raise official interest rates, the US economic downturn and a weaker dollar will force the ECB to stay on hold. Conditions, therefore, are falling into place for a safety net to be placed under the Irish housing market, which will prevent the emergence of the bleak scenarios presented by some external agencies.”

businessworld.ie/livenews.htm?a=1875749;s=rollingnews.htm

The_Unwelcome_Guest · October 23, 2007, 4:20pm

Well, you can’t say fairer than that!

beattie · October 23, 2007, 4:22pm

I think John must have been sent out to bat after the recent S&P warning probably unnerved some of the bigwigs down at bank centre. Surely he couldn’t really believe that twaddle…

geckko · October 23, 2007, 4:30pm

My favourite quote of the moment:

“Well, opinions are like bums. Everybody has one.”

conor_mc · October 23, 2007, 4:32pm

Are we really that far removed now from common sense in this whole fiasco?

Nothing else matters, not a global downturn, not more difficult exporting conditions, not lower demand for our goods (I use the term loosely), nothing remotely sensible like that.

No, as long as we can build and sell our wee little houses, everything will be just grand.

The extension of this warped logic is that as long as the global economy starts heading down the pan, we’ll be just dandy here in Ireland.

Eirmail · October 23, 2007, 4:36pm

They are talking us (the world) into a global recession at the same time as talking up the housing market. and if we point this out or say anything we get accused of talking us (Ireland) into a recession.

Madness

geckko · October 23, 2007, 4:43pm

“We’re saved. It’s a recession in the US and stagnation in Europe. Hooray!!!”

conor_mc · October 23, 2007, 4:45pm

That deserves to be someone’s signature!

whizzbang · October 23, 2007, 4:53pm

Wow, just as well we don’t export anything!

ragingbear · October 23, 2007, 4:57pm

IOUs?

The_Unwelcome_Guest · October 23, 2007, 4:58pm

Yeah, it’s great we have this solid construction economy to lean back on…

Leans back on solid 100% Irish built by a Pole, concrete better built wall

Wall collapses

Jaysus!

Poacher · October 23, 2007, 4:59pm

Its ridiculous - on the one hand the VIs state that a European/US recession has the capacity to “save” the Irish housing market while on the other they have been heard to imply that canny Irish “diversification” into these same property markets means that the housing downturn wont bite as much at home. It would be laughable if we didnt know that some people will actually give these guys credence and are liable to make decisions based on what they say.

ragingbear · October 23, 2007, 5:00pm

and paid for by the germans, who’ll be wanting that money back real soon now

Poacher · October 23, 2007, 5:35pm

In fairness to him this is vague enough to be 100% true. All we now need is some clarification on what sort of timeline he has in mind. 2015 anyone??

fishfoodie · October 23, 2007, 6:11pm

Everytime I hear who well ‘underpinned’ the Irish property market is, or how good its ‘foundations’ are; I always get a mental image of an Italian architect telling the Archbishop of Pisa what a beautiful Bell tower he’s going to get for his money

discostu · October 23, 2007, 7:02pm

Our the foundations of m Menolly home with all that Pyrite