Eddie Hobbs on Ireland AM

Says property prices will fall 50% from peak to trough and continue to fall for the next two years.

Hobbs is the new Lee.

what a chickenshit

he didn’t have the bottle to say 70%

pffff

He did say 70% in bad areas!

Areas like… Ireland???

Yayyyy!!!

the thing is people seem to be hung up on the idea that it’s in rough areas that the biggest drops may happen…

ask your self which houses were most over priced? It was the good areas, the 4 million for a threebed semi d in a cul de sac type houses that were most over priced.

These too will fall by at least 70%

It is probably fair to say that where ever gained the most, will lose the most. So, where gained the most?

:laughing: :laughing: :laughing: :laughing: :laughing: :laughing:

places like this

daft.ie/1373106

I’d say south dublin and south city

ballsbridge, blackrock , etc etc…

I’m impressed with the speed with which Eddie managed to get back onside a few months back when it became blindingly obvious that this property malarkey was going belly up.

From Cape Verde/Brendan Investments to an uberbear in a hop, skip and jump. :unamused:

It should keep the media gigs rolling in anyhow.

+1
This guy is a joke, clearly has no knowledge of economics beyond managing family budgets, getting the best car loan etc. and he has the balls to come over all bearish now after setting up that Brendan Investments vehicle at the very peak of the boom. At least the other cheerleaders (dan, austin et al) are sticking to their guns (albeit a lot more quietly and with no-one paying any attention)

WV

Yes indeed-but who will the average man/woman listen to more?

I think 70% is way over stated because one thing you have to remember is this: inflation

the monetarist move of lower interest rates (and more to come) will drive inflation as will all of the central bank cash injections. that will mean that when you look at values -if you accept we will see an era of strong inflation- in real terms you won’t see the price fall as far as that from peak to trough. we’ll all pay for it via inflation but to say a house valued at 300k in 2006 will be on sale for 90k in 2010/11 is erring on the side of hope rather than reality.

that’s not to say catastrophic loss for property owners is off the cards, just not to the tune of 70%

well at least eddie’s getting through!
a guy i work with was always slagging me off when i said that the banks were in trouble, he didn’t believe things were that bad, at least not from his pedestrian perspective until today.
what ever Eddie said this morning really got through to this guy, he was full of questions when i met him this morning. my friend, who was never caught up in whole bubble and hence removed from the gravity of events, looked like he was having an epiphany.

But what if Ireland goes into deflation?? :confused: 70% real = 80% nominal???

:smiley:
MB, look at the thread on synthetic CDO unwinds. Think of the money that is being destroyed in the losses that are being made on them. I believe that if you could count it, the central banks aren’t even coming close to replacing the money that is being destroyed. That’s what I think anyway. It’s the only reason I’m not having a heart-attack because the ECB is lowering rates - even though I believe that low rates are a bad way to tackle deflation.

Is there any definitive law of economics that says wht long-term house prices should be as a multiple of average earnings? Is it 2 times average earnings, 3 times, 4 times or whatever? if we knew that, could we not then predict that in the future house prices will gavitate towards this trend line, but maybe fluctuating a bit either side of it. Anyone know?

Where has this guy been living?, in a cave?
Even the dogs in the street know at this stage that the banks are banjaxed.

I know that development land values have collapsed already by 50 -70% and in many areas there is no market at all.
I see house values going the exact same way.

i know what you’re saying but honestly some people just didn’t get it, up until four months ago no matter how many times i explained the bubble i was still getting sympathy from people when i said i was renting.(i’d use the headbanging smilie now but i can’t find it). these same people now tell me authoritatively how i’m lucky i didn’t buy.(again head banging against wall, luck had nothing to do with it, it was a rational decision)
for a lot of people denial of property price decreases ended when Joe Duffy had developers slashing prices on air.