Effect of next government on property market

Just wondering what effect the next future government will have on the property market?.
If Labour get a majority in the next government and as per their mandate abolish mortgage relief etc how bad an effect on the property market will that have? :angry: .
What other scenarios could play out?

The property market may recover i.e. settle out to international norms

Does international norms mean a further 20% or 30% drop? XX

If that is what it takes to recover yes or maybe even more

The next government, and any future one, will be unlikely and probably unable to directly interfere in the property market to any great extent.

The wider economy will need to recover before any significant floor is created on the property market, that, IMHO, will easily take the entirety of the 2010-2020 decade to accomplish. It is likely that the Irish economy will continue to contract for the next 4 years in the teeth of the budgetary cuts. That will reduce disposable income and savings here, as a result, we will also see continued emigration.

Add in broken banks and it is unlikely that economic activity in the State will pick up. The result; an at best stagnant economy surrounding a declining property market for the foreseeable future.

The government don’t have the resources to do anything with the market, and what actions could they take? Demolishing part of the empty inventory (300,000 ish completed and empty units) will only serve to place a premium on the remaining stock and with banks not lending the 6, 8 or 10 times multiples on the generous terms of the bubble years just how many of those properties will the EA’s be able to shift? We shouldn’t be looking at returning to bubble prices or trying to engineer a floor.

The best thing any government can do for wider population with regard to the property sector is to do nothing. The market is coming off a bubble, it still has some way to fall (unpopular as that will be to those who purchased at bubble prices) and should be let complete its correction. Once the politicians get out of the way things can work themselves out.

Removal of “relief” for property purchasing and rental may well kick in, but I doubt that in the context of the wider economic problems and lack of bank lending they will impact significantly on the market. (if the marginal amount of tax relief was the deciding factor for someone as to whether they purchase or not, then they shouldn’t be let out with money unsupervised, and if it’s currently the difference between being able to pay the mortgage or not, then they should already be in discussions with their lender).

Unfortunately, politicians have a habit of interfering at the wrong time and doing nothing when they should be intervening.

Blue Horseshoe

Makes sense…
So does Blue Horseshoe love Annacott steel ?

If one thing can be learned and its been said often enough here.

Property ≠ Economy

No.no.no OW, didn’t you get the memo?

Property > Economy.

Here endith the Irish Economics 101 lesson.