I started this thread for folks who like to speculate on the result. Perhaps we’ll get enough info here to make an informed bet at Paddy Powers. I’m always fascinated by Dublin Bay South (Dublin South East as was) as it has a long history of being one of those constituencies that regularly kicks out a high profile incumbent (Lucinda Creighton, John Gormley, Michael McDowell). I also know a few folk involved with some of the parties in the constituency. So here goes -
Eamonn Ryan is in for sure (nobody seems to disagree with this)
Jim OCallaghan almost certainly in (general opinion seems to be that he doesn’t really get in on merit but that if he got in the last time he will certainly get in this time)
So the other two seats are going to be a bun fight. There’s a general belief that it will be Kevin Humphries and one Fine Gaeler. There’s also a general belief that if Sinn Fein had run anybody other than Chris Andrews they would have been in with a better chance. The Social Democrats seem to think they are in with a chance but they had a much higher profile candidate the last time - this time around it’s possible she’ll be beaten by Annette Mooney who has a longer history in the constituency and has usually gathered the vote that would have gone to Sinn Fein if they had a better candidate - that vote might go back to Chris Andrews but it’s more likely that if Durcan is eliminated that vote will go to Humphries to save his skin and push him above Andrews (if he’s not already there). There was an alternative view that there is a big Ryan/Durcan 1/2 vote but surpluses aren’t usually good enough to push a candidate through unless they are in the same party - still a possibility but I think it is more likely to change the order of elimination than the result - i.e. it might get her above Mooney.
There were 1.5 FG quotas at the last election - that won’t happen for sure this time but there will probably enough to elect one candidate, definitely not two. The feeling is that the last seat will be fought for between the FG candidates - there are possibly just enough quotas for three left-ish candidates but without vote management I can’t see that happening. The folks that I talked to all reckoned that if it was FG vs FG then Murphy would win which shocks me but apparently it will be the dyed in the wool FGers who will get one of their candidates in and they will always save a Minister over a back bencher. Personally I think there will either be no FG or OConnell and I think OConnell is the more likely. Also history favours the big name biting the dust in this constituency. If it’s no FG I think it’s nearly impossible to separate Andrews and Durcan but even though SF have momentum I think if that final seat is decided on FG transfers it might push Durcan through for a shock win if she hasn’t already been eliminated.
So I’d put the money on Ryan/OCallaghan/Humphries/OConnell
Outside chance of Ryan/OCallaghan/Humphries/Durcan
Very outside chance of Ryan/OCallaghan/Humphries/Andrews
I think SF have slipped up badly by not running more candidates, a sure sign that they are as surprised at the wave that appears to be coming their way as everyone else.
Theyre running 42 candidates but are polling well into the 20s nationally. If this vote was to hold up on Saturday they could have been looking at 50 odd seats countrywide. As it stands, again assuming the polls are accurate, theyre likely to be in the high 30s, maybe even 40, with some of their candidates receiving huge surpluses. I think they will transfer more to FF than to the left collective, leaving FF with something in the high 40s or maybe 50 odd.
FG are heading for wipeout outside Dublin. Beyond some big names with strong name recognition and personal votes, i dont think they will receive any transfers. Their campaign has been pathetic and their leadership is quite simply inept. Further, they are now rudderless in terms of identity. Its not clear to me whether they are a conservative party or a branch of the ‘woke’ social justice brigade. Varadkar and co appear to have gone all in on the two referenda as being indicative of their (new) identity as a party and assumed that those victories would benefit them electorally. Id guess the opposite has been the case and the type of floating voter who engaged around those campaigns (think Una Mulally etc) has now floated toward SF. Plus some of the more conservative FG/FF vote that has voted FG since the crash was not particularly happy with either of those refernda results and have switched or switched back to FF. Throw in general disontent among many people under 40 as well a litany of cockups and they are in serious trouble.
Further, the supposed Green wave has not really materialised ie climate change looks to be a minority sport, of interest mainly to inhabitants of the media and political bubble. Bread and butter issues, housing, health, law and order arw what people are interested in.
SF are offering Bertieesque solutions and are likely to benefit as a result. Assuming no great change between now and Saturday it will be intersting to see whether Martin does busines with Mary Lou.
So as of now im suggesting FF high 40s/50 odd, SF high 30s, FG 20s…mish mash for the rest
I don’t know how you can put money on 2 FG seats ?
I wondered who Durcan was
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Possibly because they would rather be in govt with FF than SF. I don’t think it would work for them - I guess your implication is that it wouldn’t and I agree with that. Best way is to be in coalition with them, wrap them in a warm fluffy blanket and stifle them - same as they’ve done with other coalition partners over the years. That does pre-suppose FG being bigger than SF and I don’t think that’s a given. I think SFs max is 35 but I need to do a bit more research. FF look like being the biggest party - I think if they have a good numeric superiority over SF they might take them in but - anything less than 20 more seats would be risky (as would a combined figure under the mid 80s) - SF are almost certain to split at some point in office and FF have been prone to it in the past; however not neccessarily any worse than a three hand reel with GP and LAB - but that presupposes those two parties get enough seats between them to be worthy of consideration - at the very outside they might have 20 odd seats - they’ve both proved they can have the s**t kicked out of them in a coalition without leaving so they might be more amenable.
In terms of national losers i expect the following to lose their seats
Danny Healy Rae
Marcella Corcoran Kennedy
Ross (if only)
Paschal Donohoe could be in trouble. Mary Lou will fly in, she’ll probably get in on 1st Preferences. Her excess will probably push up the left but specifically the Soc Dems. I also think FF will be ahead or level of FG and FF will be sligtly more transfer friendly than FG which will have them pip Donohoe.
My prediction is Mary Lou (SF), Gary Gannon (Soc Dem) and Mary Fitzpatrick (FF)
I should really have looked at the seat numbers in Dublin Central before putting in that guess. Bad day for FF, they used to regularly get 2 out of the 4 seats there, 3 out 5 in their pomp. Fitzpatrick has been knocking on the door there for a long time and hasn’t increased their percentages. They are transfer toxic in that constituency. Christy Burke finished ahead of her. No Gregory candidate cleared the way tfor the SocDems Gary Gannon although if Burke could diversify out of the Inner City he might’ve piped Gannon. Overall though a lost opportunity for the Shinners they could’ve got in 2 maybe a third if they had a strong candidate that could stand up their own 3-5% FPV.
On DNW I got my order wrong although again FF are becoming transfer toxic as McAuliffe was lucky to fight off the PBP candidate who has no profile in the area. McAuliffe is the Lord Mayor at the moment and is very high profile. The Shinners with proper vote management could’ve taken all 3 seats here, mental!
Better than my predictions anyway. Really surprised that Andrews got in and Murphy survived. Interesting that Andrews got more transfers than anyone - 2400 (960 from Labour 1100 from the PBP/SD elimination - probably mainly from PBP). Labour transfers split pretty evenly across the remaining 4, OConnell getting the most. Surprisingly Murphy got 2300 transfers - particularly since OConnell wasn’t eliminated. If Humphries had got in ahead of OConnel he would probably have beaten OCallaghan - but he was a poor candidate - old, tired Labour. FG obviously sacrificed OConnell as the FG guy had said to me - I didn’t think they had that much power over their voters - the FG number 2 s to OConnell were useless as she never got to see them.