I started this thread for folks who like to speculate on the result. Perhaps we’ll get enough info here to make an informed bet at Paddy Powers. I’m always fascinated by Dublin Bay South (Dublin South East as was) as it has a long history of being one of those constituencies that regularly kicks out a high profile incumbent (Lucinda Creighton, John Gormley, Michael McDowell). I also know a few folk involved with some of the parties in the constituency. So here goes -
Eamonn Ryan is in for sure (nobody seems to disagree with this)
Jim OCallaghan almost certainly in (general opinion seems to be that he doesn’t really get in on merit but that if he got in the last time he will certainly get in this time)
So the other two seats are going to be a bun fight. There’s a general belief that it will be Kevin Humphries and one Fine Gaeler. There’s also a general belief that if Sinn Fein had run anybody other than Chris Andrews they would have been in with a better chance. The Social Democrats seem to think they are in with a chance but they had a much higher profile candidate the last time - this time around it’s possible she’ll be beaten by Annette Mooney who has a longer history in the constituency and has usually gathered the vote that would have gone to Sinn Fein if they had a better candidate - that vote might go back to Chris Andrews but it’s more likely that if Durcan is eliminated that vote will go to Humphries to save his skin and push him above Andrews (if he’s not already there). There was an alternative view that there is a big Ryan/Durcan 1/2 vote but surpluses aren’t usually good enough to push a candidate through unless they are in the same party - still a possibility but I think it is more likely to change the order of elimination than the result - i.e. it might get her above Mooney.
There were 1.5 FG quotas at the last election - that won’t happen for sure this time but there will probably enough to elect one candidate, definitely not two. The feeling is that the last seat will be fought for between the FG candidates - there are possibly just enough quotas for three left-ish candidates but without vote management I can’t see that happening. The folks that I talked to all reckoned that if it was FG vs FG then Murphy would win which shocks me but apparently it will be the dyed in the wool FGers who will get one of their candidates in and they will always save a Minister over a back bencher. Personally I think there will either be no FG or OConnell and I think OConnell is the more likely. Also history favours the big name biting the dust in this constituency. If it’s no FG I think it’s nearly impossible to separate Andrews and Durcan but even though SF have momentum I think if that final seat is decided on FG transfers it might push Durcan through for a shock win if she hasn’t already been eliminated.
So I’d put the money on Ryan/OCallaghan/Humphries/OConnell
Outside chance of Ryan/OCallaghan/Humphries/Durcan
Very outside chance of Ryan/OCallaghan/Humphries/Andrews