She’s still on an upward trajectory, and ain’t restin up.
INSIDE THE ANTONIO WEISS NOMINATION FIGHT - POLITICO’s Ben White: "Supporters of Antonio Weiss knew the Wall Street banker’s nomination for a top job at the Treasury Department was in deep trouble the morning of Dec. 5. … Kirsten Gillibrand, Democratic senator from New York, went on MSNBC’s ‘Morning Joe’ and refused to say if she would back the Lazard banker. And she made clear who was really calling the shots. BIG WIN FOR THE LEFT - "It was not a total victory. Weiss will still join Treasury as an unconfirmed counselor to Secretary Jack Lew. But in terms of symbolism, the Washington power game and the ideological direction of the Democratic Party, Warren won big. And the moderate, Wall Street- and business-friendly wing of the party - in past years happily occupied by Democratic presidential nominee-in-waiting Hillary Clinton - got punched in the mouth.
"On the other side, the despair among Wall Street’s Democratic elite is growing acute. As is the belief that Weiss himself never mattered in this fight. ‘In this case, the thing Warren was against - adding another Wall Street anti-regulatory guy - wasn’t even remotely true,’ said one senior Wall Street Democrat … 'There is no one in government right now who has any market or finance experience. It’s not like there are ‘too many.’
THE PERFECT FIGHT - "The morning the first POLITICO article about Warren’s opposition came out in the ‘Morning Money; tip sheet, a small group of progressives at CREDO Action in San Francisco gathered to plot strategy, poring over the Warren aides’ every word. This was the perfect fight, they decided. … After the midterm election drubbing, the battle was on for the soul of the Democratic Party. And another fight was already brewing over the inclusion of pro-Wall Street language in the year-end spending bill.
‘It was the exact right campaign at the exact right time,’ said Murshed Zaheed, deputy political director at CREDO and a former aid to Senate Minority Leader Harry Reid. ‘We felt this nomination presented the perfect battle that would drive the narrative of where the party needs to go and where the progressive movement is right now.’" Much more on the Weiss saga and what it means here: politi.co/1uuLcGP
Someone with that amount of clout is doing it to test their strength.
And she knows now, she has the backing.
She’s 20/1 with paddy power.
Worth a punt tomorrow.
Just to add, this is a very different kind of run.
Most (if not all) of the current candidates decide to run and then form a team.
She has a following that’s telling her to go for it.
She already enjoys a level of popular support that politicians need billions to buy.
I’d be stunned if she throws that away.
I tend to agree with you, she’s hot today like Obama was 2007, but not as hot. The window of opportunity to run for President can close quickly. She may not be as hot in 4 or 8 years. Obama was persuaded that he had to strike while the iron was hot.
Despite what he says publicly, most agree that the window has closed for Joe Biden. He may still run, but he’ll have a tougher time than he did in 2008.
I think she’s much hotter with the base than Obama ever was.
There’s much more of a substantive swelling of support.
Sure, but in both parties, the base will only get you the nomination…at best.
She is, and is seen, today as much farther to the left than Obama was in 2007, and therefore arguably has more work to do with the rest of the electorate than Obama had. She can probably avoid a decision until September at the latest. After that she’ll have a lot of extra obstacles to overcome. Hillary is currently setting up the necessary infrastructure. The longer Warren leaves it the harder it gets, talent commits to other campaigns etc.
Four states, Iowa, NH, Nevada and SC will all hold their primaries in Feb. The process is unforgiving.
Here’s the latest polling I could find. It’s about a month old.
2016 Democratic Presidential Nomination CNN/Opinion Research Clinton 66, Warren 9, Biden 8, Sanders 3, Webb 1, Cuomo 1, O’Malley 1 Clinton +57
Let’s say she jumps in, in September, and immediately doubles her numbers to 20%, and H remains at 60, that’s still a big ask to surmount, a bigger gap than Obama faced. Although the signs say otherwise, I think there’s still a small chance Hillary won’t run, but holding off on a decision nobbles everyone else even more, thus making her decision less urgent.
heh Open Window … whats happened to this place since I went on sabattical…first the 1% have usurped the throne and
now talking about ‘hot women’ and ‘substantive swellings’
Elizabeth Warren what a woman… intelligent, with some morals, principles and not afraid to voice them .
What couldnt be hotter… 20 years ago Id have had a substantive swelling for her myself…
Bloomberg with a decent article on Warren.
I felt she went off message just before and after being elected to the Senate, can only imagine all the “advisors” who were pushing here this way and that through the election process, feel like she is back on track and what a breath of fresh air in politics.
Dem oul journos are always diggin around.
Obama called her…just another politician. Ouch!
Well if there’s any man who knows.
I don’t think a politician in modern history has ever wasted the amount of political capital that Obama came to office with.
I suppose that could be true if you are prepared to overlook the fact that he came to office just as the US/World was on the verge of slipping down the toilet economically speaking, worst since great depression. That he achieved his signature proposal, The Affordable Care Act, aka Obamacare.
If you overlook the fact that he has largely met his goal of getting US troops out of Afghan/Iraq. That he has reversed 50 years of US foreign policy with Cuba, and is on the verge of a historic nuke deal with Iran.
Then sure, he has squandered polcap.
But I’m not overlooking, so could you explain by some examples what you mean by squandering political capital?
Nothing to do with his administration, Bush/Cheney were already retreating from Iraq after their epic f$ckup, and last I looked the Americans are still hanging around Afghanistan, no cut and run there plus they are still poking around in the middle east with bombs from aircraft and drone strikes and indirect training and funding of terrorist groups. His play on Cuba has been forced by the Russians who have run rings around his administration and who can forget his corrupt foreign secretarys junkets around the world to solicit contributions to the Clinton foundation and Samantha Powers RTP role in Libya. Worldwide arms sales are still rolling with more players entering the market for death and destruction.
Piffle. Health care spending is always increasing. It has never stayed static or gone down. Your headline that insurance premiums are increasing is no news, it’s like reporting that an aircraft successfully took-off or landed.
What has happened under the ACA is that the rate increase in spending has slowed…dramatically. Read the first three bullet points at the link.
You haven’t a clue what you’re talking about on Afghan. Bush/Cheney withdrew zilch. Obama against his instincts temporarily surged from 35k to 70K, and is now down to below 10K, all in an advisory, training, security, non combatant role.
Do explain the Russian role in the Cuba situation.
The principle behind insurance is that you pay in advance, the insurance company pays out if you encounter a particular event under their terms and conditions. People who have pre-existing conditions that exclude them from getting insurance in a normal market signed up and the people who are generally healthy, meaning younger people, are not rushing to sign up. They are the ones who are going to pay for it and that’s typical of government welfare programs you get the benefits first and the bills later. Deductiblesare already an issue for the Democrats. The deductible must be paid every year. If you are unfortunate to suffer a multi-year disease, you will pay these high deductibles every year from now on and that’s causing political pain. and don’t forget Jonathan Gruber, who?
Afghan army collapse drags US back into war - -> theaustralian.com.au/news/wo … 7343863657
I see the training and advisor role is going well, we know how this ends.
What do you think forced him to act on Cuba.
Russia to reopen spy base in Cuba as relations with US continue to sour - -> theguardian.com/world/2014/j … tions-sour
I don’t think you even understand what a deductible is.
You do not pay a deductible every year for any type of insurance. You only pay a deductible when you make a claim. Plus, with health insurance, regular periodic visits to health care providers are not claims, they are covered by co-pays which typically are in the $10-$20 range.
With regard to Russia reopening a spy base in Cuba…
No, I don’t think so.
But even if it were accurate, I doubt very much if it would effect the current US position on Cuba one way or another. US has bigger fish to fry with Russia, which is entitled to have relations with any country willing to reciprocate. It’s long been accepted by most Americans that US policy on Cuba is a cold war relic, has made no sense, and needed to to change. The primary obstacle to change were the older hardline Cuban immigrants in South Florida. They are now dying off and their children have other priorities so Obama seized the moment.
Because he doesn’t have to worry about re-election.
There is doubt little in my mind Obama is going through his bucket list, with Cuba and Iran at or near the top.
America’s spat has lasted 35 years with Iran and 60 with Cuba.
Both countries are eventually going to be brought in from the cold.
History can remember you as a reasonably ineffectual president, or someone who ended these two long-standing embargos.
It’s no coincidence that his coldness towards Israel intensified during his second term.
Gotta get those Jewish votes/dollars (until you don’t).
The whole point of Obamacare was that it is obligatory. You have to buy insurance or else pay a fee. That was what the Supreme Court case was about!
This is from the official Gov site.
If you can afford health insurance but choose not to buy it, you must have a health coverage exemption or pay a fee. (The fee is sometimes called the “penalty,” “fine,” “individual responsibility payment,” or “individual mandate.”)
The fee for not having coverage in 2015
If you don’t have coverage in 2015, you’ll pay the higher of these two amounts:
2% of your yearly household income. (Only the amount of income above the tax filing threshold, about $10,150 for an individual, is used to calculate the penalty.) The maximum penalty is the national average premium for a Bronze plan. $325 per person for the year ($162.50 per child under 18). The maximum penalty per family using this method is $975.
I don’t know how many people opted out so far but the fee tripled in 2015.
insurancequotes.com/health/o … calculator
The real problem with Obamacare will be in accessing healthcare particularly at the primary care level.
Medicaid insurance reimbursement in many states is so poor that(I have heard) that many primary care docs have opted out.
So you will have insurance but cannot find a doc who will take it.
No, it’s only obligatory for some people, not everyone. If your first sentence is wrong your foundation crumbles.
The problem with the 2nd highlight is that implicit in that statement is a claim/belief that it is/will be easier to see a specialist than a primary care provider, which of course is not true, because in most cases, in most countries, in order to see a specialist, you have to see a primary care provider first. In this instance primary means both main/largest and first. Elective surgery may be an exception.
Certainly, US healthcare is generally not as “convenient” as EU, so those with Obamacare may have to travel to get care, but “unable to get care” is probably inaccurate. More likely that they are unable to get care conveniently. But it’s a big country and people are used to traveling longer distances, which is also a reminder to you not to take a specific example and then extrapolate it into a general principle. I’m sure there are differences between the Greek and Irish systems.
Well, we are splitting hairs now. Yes, some people who are not covered by the medicaid expansion but are still low income will not pay a penalty but Obamacare is still compulsory for those that matter! Young healthy well off people who Boyracer claims are dropping insurance coverage. The whole point of compulsory coverage was to avoid an “insurance death spiral”. Also you must have missed the US Supreme court decision that ruled the fee/penalty as a tax and therefore constitutional to the great dismay of opponents of Obamacare.
On the second point, the Medicaid expansion was a large part of expanding insurance, Medicaid reimbursements rate vary greatly from state to state. Rates are particularly low in the South. Hospitals seem to do OK. In fact more and more hospital based physicians are now employed directly by hospitals. So the hospital in effect subsidises their income. Less so for primary care physicians. Poor people have traditionally accessed healthcare in the US via the ER because they didnt have or couldn’t afford t go to a primary care specialist. In certain states, I fear that may not change that much.
Here’s an article that explains it.
washingtonpost.com/blogs/won … e-pay-cut/