End game Europe approaching.

Greece 10 year still racing towards 18%. Irish 10 year passed 10.5%. Meanwhile the Greek government is close to collapse, the PM is offering to step down in favour of a unity government - guardian.co.uk/world/2011/ju … er-sharing

Baffling how the Greek people believe a strike is in their best interests right now? Does it not just add huge weight to the hardline approach that says there should be no bailout or default type mechanism as the people plain and simple wont make the necessary reforms to make it a policy option.

Seems to me strikes etc will only make the case for Troika witholding funds, a swifter desent to full on default and an exit for greece from the eurozone and down the road the Eu and into the economic wilderness.

The air strike today in Greece (the latest of a good few) is not going to do much for tourism…

Jaysus! It really is endgame when the IMF call in air strikes.

It looks increasingly like a showdown between the elected and the appointed. I don’t see how the appointed can win. Schauble and the Dutch actually have a mandate to say yes or no to a bailout. The technocrats got it wrong last year and will have to give way. And that can only lead to resignations. Rehn, Barroso, Trichet et al. will end up going. Draghi probably spoke too soon.

How come Sarkozy is so quiet ?


Pretty scary report by Paul Mason in Athens on Newsnight just now. He was saying that in the event of a Greek default her banks would probably collapse, exposing European banks to high levels of Greek public, private and banking debt. He reports that this is making people seriously consider how close we are to a Lehaman’s event.

And at the risk exposing my ignorance of the nuances involved, I do wonder what the hell the Greek protesters are complaining about. That they continue to enjoy a standard of living they can’t afford? Their public service is by all accounts more expensive than ours, tax evasion there is endemic, corruption at all levels of public life would make the Irish gombeen class blush, their economy is, appropriately, as nimble as an oil tanker. Why does Greece or Ireland think they deserve things that, say, Turkish people, Lebanese people, Columbian people don’t have because they can’t afford them? What makes Paddy and Stavros so arrogant?

Whoo-ho! Nicolas Taleb coming up…

I guess they understand the game:

Fuck someone over or be fucked over.


The Greeks can fuck people over till they’re blue in the face, but I fail to see how that changes the fact that they can’t make ends meet from day to day. As long as a country’s Expenditure > Revenue I can’t help feeling it is arrogance to expect that situation to be sustained by someone else’s money. And on a more practical level, once your budget is under control you are in a much better position to renounce odious debt.

Incredibly volatile markets this pm. Even energy (oil ) down hugely for no other discernible reason than Eur/USD fluctuation

Well they’re (‘the Greeks’) probably looking around them and seeing their versions of guys like Denis O’Brien, who I read somewhere this week saw his Digicell profits increase by something in the region of €100 milion in the year ending March 2011 (not long after having been “criticised” by the Moriarty Tribunal) , and they just may be coming to the conclusion that the game is rigged.

It doesnt negate your points re poorer countries but to quote sporting parlance, “you can only beat whats put in front of you”.

Poster Jarleth on IE makes a comment pertinent to my musings above:

irisheconomy.ie/index.php/20 … /#comments

Front page on the Indo website today

It’s not going to happen then :open_mouth:

PS What does Cramer say? Is it a slam-dunk?

Watched “inside job” the movie last night, Each one of these guys like Greenspan who were relied on for their sound judgement walked away without a scratch after at best being asleep at the wheel…that films not good for your blood pressure. Still being interviewed at age 85, as a wise man of sound judgement.

wallstreetpit.com/78337-eurogrou … ontainable

finance.yahoo.com/news/Moodys-pu … l?x=0&.v=1

With a second Greek bailout on the horizon, it looks like that the political masters have told the ECB to provide the funds. The European project and the Euro are paramount.

At this stage, the game can be played in one of two ways:

The ECB continues to churn out money for Greek bailout II, then Irish bailout II then Portugese bailout II then Spanish bailout I then Itanian bailout I. If this happens, the markets and others who hold euros are going to realise that the ECB is printing money (why they haven’t realised this already is a mystery to me), following an inflationary policy and are going to bail out of the euro. As an aside, it is a bit rich of the ECB to print money and then say that they are going to increase interest rates as a result of which are going to put it in a position where they are going have to print more bail out money. This puts the existence of the euro at risk.


The other approach, which was finally being recognised by Angela Merkel was some degree of writedown by the private sector (default), which has been ruled out by Sarkozy. It is inevitable that there is going to be a writedown in the debts of the euro countries, either by inflation or default. If it is by inflation, the Germans will not stand for it and Merkel will be shunted out of office to be replaced by a eurosceptic, who will not be happy bankrolling PIIGS. There will be huge German popular pressure to modify the EU.

If default occurs, it will have a catestrophic effect on the banks, resulting in the collapse of the european (and possibly the world) banking system. This will not be allowed by the US and China.

The only way out of this catestrophe is ;

Balance the budgets of the member states.
Issue long term, low interest rate bonds for the present debts.
Hope that growth and low level inflation will take care of the issue in the long term.

Good luck with that one, we are already hitting the limits to growth due to the limits of oil extraction and the cost of extracting minerals & fuel increasing at an ever increasing rate due to high fuel costs.