End of recession by middle of 2010 - ESRI

How incompetent are these people?

There is no way in hell we will be out of this recession by next summer.

Off the top of my head:

More CC and mortgage defaults next year
More job losses
More emigration
Less tax returns
One or two of our large banks being nationalised
US & UK economy still in big trouble
Etc.

Have these fools ever been right?

Posted or noted already on another thread

Does anyone know what methodology the ESRI has used in preparing their outlook, or like their house price index, do they just collate without question the numbers and opinions presented to them by third parties onto a “report”? Their website has scant background information.

In the absence of any contradictory evidence, I’ll just have to assume they use the industry standard goat entrails method. They would have made for good witch catchers back in old Salem.

Blue Horseshoe

GDP will be out of negative territory by next summer. It may go back into it in Q4 QoQ, but will probably stay ahead YoY.

  1. GDP, particularly in an Irish context, is a bollocks way to judge the economy. It is a ‘gamed’ statistic.
  2. The economic indicators that matter to people - take home pay, annuity rates, public services, employment, prices will stay in the shitter. Prices will not fall enough. People will be actually poorer than they were, when based on things they have to buy (like increasingly expensive government services) and when based in terms of tax-home pay. Unemployment may stop rising, but only because of emigration; that may not even be enough to stop the live register increasing as the self-employed spend their savings and become eligible for means-tested benefits. The live register will remain the stress indicator that most people will watch and ‘feel’ whatever the economists say.

+1. When I first heard the report on the radio I started laughing.

Lies, Damned Lies and Statistics.

:laughing: :laughing: :laughing: Ah its great to get the odd joke in the morning, t sets you up for the day.