Entering Denial in New Zealand

i forgot to post this when i first saw it. it’s feedback to a recent NZ Herald. the first response sets the tone nicely.

“Realist (Auckland)
All the blogging reactionaries here that say the housing market is doomed are in denial. Volume dropped, but value has only ever been down a whisker. Mainly panic merchants and some overstretched people sold at low prices. The historical trend for house prices to meet or even exceed inflation will continue. That means a house price will double every ten years. If you are sensible you will use this fact to get ahead. Bite the bullet and buy something modest to get a foot on the ladder. Not point in doing what you are now - trying to talk the market down and complaining you cant afford a house.”

blogs.nzherald.co.nz/blog/your-v … d=10543035

and this is a country that through the credit boom lost more through emigration than it gained from immigration.

brendan o connor is in new zealand? :stuck_out_tongue: :stuck_out_tongue: :stuck_out_tongue: :stuck_out_tongue: :stuck_out_tongue: :stuck_out_tongue:

one guy called lance_nz even says “get a life and buy a house.”

wow. subtle. i guess we’ll be waiting a while for the Pin.NZ

Met a NZ guy yesterday who just bought a house there, his 6th or 7th investment property all on interest only payments. He is earning in US$ and loving the exchange rate together with the reductions in interest rates, could not be more positive about it. I just bit my tongue, there was no reasoning with this guy.

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when you think about, they’ve seen it before, their last bust was in the late nineties so the ones in hock have more reason to talk it up as they realise what’s happening, in ireland denial was to a great part driven by inexperience and blind faith.

i read this piece nearly a year ago, if it pans out like he says then NZ will be a close runner up to ireland for the empties crown.
babyboomersguide.co.nz/Artic … +2010.html

i love the scenery and the outdoor lifestyle, i could do it for a while. i have my machinery tickets so who knows, 2011!

Hi catbear

In Aus, we have the same kind of stupid maths quoted by RE dopes - “property doubles every 10 years”. Yeh, right.

Found this quote from a RE site you might find useful: jenman.com.au/news_alert.php?id=90

“In 1890, the average Sydney home price was $1,446 (£723).
If property really does double every seven years then, in 2009,
the average Sydney home will be worth $189,530,112.00.
Quick, BUY, BUY, BUY”

Last time I looked, Sydney homes were way under $1M, and nowhere near $189M. Idiots.

Adapt for NZ market (change Sydney to Orkland), and lob into on-line blogs at random intervals.

Enjoy

Fantasy economy exposed → stuff.co.nz/business/money/4 … my-exposed

Despite the headline they are still fighting denial in this piece
nzherald.co.nz/property/news … d=10686859

nzherald.co.nz/business/news … d=10689365
S&P downgrades NZ outlook to negative

warnings on leading in the NZ Herald
95% and 100% mortgages

another good article

nzherald.co.nz/property/news … d=10789942

Where is our roving reporter Sidewinder to make sense of it all?

Did NZ house prices dip from their highs in 2008 as it looked like they would? And are now starting to rise again?

I am living in NZ at the moment. I dont want to appear like a Paddy who has seen a collapse at home and now expects collapse everywhere as I just dont know enough about economics. But there would appear to be at least some similarities between noughties Ireland and NZ now: flicking through the paper at the weekend, the NZ equivalents of Woodies etc seem to be competing with each other on the basis of how many years interest free credit they can offer; and just from going down to the shops Ive seen some odd stuff on offer, like things which cost as little as $50 but which are available with 2 years interest free credit. I`m working in a bank which has recently been allowing contracts to expire as a rule. Contract work seems to be very widespread here though so firms may be able to readjust more quickly than at home if things do get tight.

Whatever happens, the uptick in the number of Irish here has not gone unnoticed.

stuff.co.nz/national/6634514 … -new-Irish

stuff.co.nz/national/5751747 … e-increase

It’s yet another fuppin Bubble with the exact same BS in the local press lifted verbatim from the pages of the Indo or the Toimes loike, circa late 2005. Seriously, the exact same BS. Affordability blah blah get on the ladder blah blah not making any more of it blah blah JetStar are flying there next year blah blah blah blah.

I’m cursed, cursed I tells ya!

:laughing:

I just find it all amusing now, myself. I’ve a good job totally unrelated in any way whatsoever to property, bubblicious consumer debt spending, or government debt binge spending. The music scene is good, the beer is good, the wimmins are smokin’ hot, I spend freely but still save loads, I’ve a 20 minute casual stroll to work in the morning and I’m starting to put my own social scene together. Property? Corruption of local politicians? Don’t give a monkeys tbh.

But yeah, from what little attention I do pay, around Q3 2005 in Irish terms by my reckoning. In fairness the bubble here doesn’t seem to have scaled quite the same reaches of dribbling insanity as back home. But Oz? Some of the stories coming out of Perth and Sydney make even this old veteran gulp a little. Oz is f***ed.

Get On The Ladder Quick!

Long term investment, if we don’t buy now we won’t be able to afford to, buying 120 kms away from work because it’s all you can afford, etc etc etc. You Pinsters know the drill.

XX

Be careful out there :laughing:

:laughing: That was great, NZ ads are brilliant, on a completely different theme there’s this one:

Bidding wars

nzherald.co.nz/property/news … d=10799360

Flipping hell :open_mouth:

According to here apps.anz.co.nz/calculators/repayments/ 880k @ 5.74% over 30 years is 1,183 a week… I don’t suppose it was a 100% mortgage, but even so.

It’s all so depressingly familiar. What is it about property bubbles and humans anyway?

Take that JAFA now (Just Another F***ing Aucklander, see I’m picking up the local slang already :slight_smile: )

To start with (if he even exists and wasn’t just invented for the purposes of a morkesh-shilling article, oh the cynicism, and I was such a cheerful child) he’s “Mr Berry, a 35-year-old technology entrepreneur” and unless I’ve just gone senile don’t the old metrics of around 90% of tech start-ups failing within the first 4-5 years still hold true? And he’s signing up for a Bob-knows-how-many-decades mortgage? And then there’s all the usual Laddermania nonsense and the McCreevy-esque “Just find the property you want and know how much money you have to spend and just spend it” but what made me LOL was him a-cribbin’ and a-moanin’ about the rent but happily signing up to pay a mortgage that, including the interest payments, would pay his rent for about the next 40 years.

Seriously, at this stage I consider anyone who buys into property bubbles to be dangerously stupid and not someone you want within a million miles of you and your day-to-day business. Idiots like this will be nothing but trouble, all the time. If this means I have to keep 80% of humanity at arm’s length, then so be it - it’s probably worth it just to not have to put up with listening to all the BS and attempts at picking my pocket or pleading for my cash to dig them out of their latest get-rich-quick scam-gone-wrong. My new policy - the minute I hear anyone talking Ladderology they become an unfriend to be avoided. We’ll see how I get on with that, twill be an interesting little Pin social experiment :laughing: