ESRI expert warns of housing shortage

Children will stay at home until 35 unless 25,000 houses are built per year, says John FitzGerald … -1.1693940

Solution to this problem is simple, cheap and leads to lower housing costs - abolish planning permissions and zoning.

I know one way to increase supply, start repos on those who are hopelessly in arrears

Maybe start with those who have equity in their houses, they’d then have a deposit to buy something less in line with the style they’ve becoem accustomed to but hey what can you do

I guess the media would still be horrified but as things stand those who never messed up are being forced to buy smaller houses or houses with a bigger commute.

This subject is being discussed on Pat Kenny - Newstalk 106 - right now (10.20am)

Absolutely - why delay the pain, its inevitable, whilst not politically palatable, it’s the right thing to do. Sure in the right cases there can be debt for equity swaps and even some write-downs as long as the criteria can be clearly defined. But from what I can see no one is steering the ship.

The governments strategy appears to be simply re-inflate the bubble by constricting supply and then slowly offload the excess houses at inflated prices while bankrupting those not already bankrupt.

Good luck to them!

If you want to see a living example of how that works - have a look at Carrick-on-Shannon. You don’t have to go there in person - Street View should be adequate.

Just because there will be a shortage doesn’t mean people or the state will be able to pay high prices for houses.

Problem with Section 23 was that it was effectively subsidy - just like over-regulation then over-subsidizing distorts market. Have you ever been to Dublin? They have town houses in middle of big city there! Look also at all damage of zoning, residential zones dead during days, commercial zones dead during night, people wasting time commuting. Have you ever been to estate in Ireland? With perhaps one shop, one take away, one creche and other businesses carefully chosen by city planners. Because in Ireland we hate when people shop locally, and we must force them to drive to shopping centers - obviously all shops must be in one place!

Agree this appears to be strategy but I can’t see it doing anything other than end in tears

Suppose by then pensions + a few more years salaries/perks will be locked in and they ride off into the sunset

You`ll find they have zoning and planning permission requirements in Carrick on Shannon. Look at the mess that was created with these rules all across the country and all they do is make work for deadweight drags on society with no economic benefit for anyone.

The longer I`m away the more thinking of the look-a-like lego housing in Ireland seems so ridiculous and stupid. People are so used to it because they are surrounded by it that they dont recognise it as a symptom on a disease

When will RTE start filming the next season of “I’m an Adult, Get Me Out of Here”?

There’s little doubt in my mind that the government will use this ESRI report to build houses.

It’s instant employment, makes the government figures look good and, most importantly, is just two years away from the next election.

When they have an additional 7.5 billion of credit per year in the system to mop up those 25,000 new houses ‘profitably’, I presume.

EDIT - And enough profitable hamster wheels in place to service it of course.

Ha, I was just going to make the same point. Housing shortages are a potentially real issue if the population is still expanding
Where does the credit come from now that the credit system is broken?

Really, my post was alluding to the fact that since 2008, the state and its private sector allies have done trojan work (‘a lot done, more to do’), in rebuilding an infrastructure of mortgage origination (e.g. Pepper and their ilk), and investor vehicles to focus on the Irish property market. This is to complement the credit our own main retail banks can bring to this market, that also have been the subject of trojan work to enable them to open up new credit channels, and repair old ones. There is no way the ESRI would be coming forward and saying there is a need for 25,000 houses, if they did not think there would be the credit to correspond to it at the kind of price levels the industry expects. All of this is done in a certain synchronisation. Always. QUnchained may have brought up the RTE part of the pie in jest, but it is a critical part of the recipe, and I don’t doubt that we will see something like it soon on our screens as well. It is all about momentum.

edit - bolded a phrase for @barneygumble’s benefit.

Ah look it’s old very well trodden ground anyway. E.g. viewtopic.php?f=19&t=61689&p=752683#p752683 And I well realise I stumbled into the wrong temple, at least this last couple of years around here. So I’ll go now. Cheers.