ESRI for November

The easing has begun to ease.

     Dec. 20 (Bloomberg) -- Following is a summary of November Ireland
house prices from permanent tsb and ESRI in Dublin:
*T
============================================================================
                        Nov.    Oct.   Sept.    Aug.    July    June     May
                        2007    2007    2007    2007    2007    2007    2007
============================================================================
                    -------------------------- YoY -------------------------
National               -5.9%   -4.7%   -2.8%   -1.9%   -0.7%    0.9%    2.6%
Outside Dublin         -5.5%   -4.9%   -3.4%   -2.9%   -1.8%   -0.4%    1.5%
Dublin                 -5.6%   -4.8%   -3.4%   -0.6%    0.5%    4.1%    7.6%
New Houses             -3.6%   -2.5%   -1.7%   -1.2%    0.1%    1.7%    3.3%
Existing Houses        -8.8%   -7.7%   -4.8%   -1.8%   -0.4%    1.0%    2.4%
First Time Buyers      -6.4%   -6.1%   -4.7%   -2.4%   -1.2%    0.6%    3.3%
Second Time Buyers     -6.5%   -4.9%   -3.1%   -2.0%   -1.0%    0.7%    2.6%
Commuter Counties      -6.5%   -5.5%   -4.7%   -3.7%   -1.2%    0.9%    3.0%
3 Bed Semi             -2.2%   -2.6%   -2.4%   -2.3%   -1.4%    0.2%    2.3%

============================================================================
============================================================================
                        Nov.    Oct.   Sept.    Aug.    July    June     May
                        2007    2007    2007    2007    2007    2007    2007
============================================================================
                    -------------------------- MoM -------------------------
National               -1.1%   -1.3%   -0.3%   -0.3%   -0.4%   -0.5%   -0.8%
Outside Dublin         -0.8%   -1.3%    0.1%   -0.1%   -0.2%   -0.9%   -0.8%
Dublin                 -0.1%   -0.4%   -1.2%   -0.1%   -1.9%   -1.3%   -1.2%
New Houses             -0.7%   -1.3%    0.0%   -0.4%   -0.4%   -0.7%   -1.0%
Existing Houses        -1.2%   -2.3%   -2.2%   -0.4%   -0.3%   -0.3%   -0.8%
First Time Buyers      -0.1%   -1.0%   -1.6%    0.0%   -0.4%   -0.9%   -1.8%
Second Time Buyers     -1.4%   -1.3%   -0.3%   -0.2%   -0.7%   -0.5%   -0.5%
Commuter Counties      -0.5%   -0.1%    0.1%   -1.3%   -0.3%   -0.7%    0.3%
3 Bed Semi              0.4%   -0.1%    0.6%    0.9%    0.5%   -1.4%   -1.9%
                    --------------------- Price in EUR ---------------------
National             292,124 295,469 299,483 300,375 301,267 302,605 304,166
Outside Dublin       251,839 253,938 257,372 256,991 257,372 257,945 260,234
Dublin               403,233 403,535 405,343 410,466 411,069 418,905 424,631
New Houses           290,946 292,896 296,796 296,796 297,879 298,962 301,128
Existing Houses      285,057 288,654 295,398 302,143 303,492 304,391 305,290
First Time Buyers    261,578 261,776 264,548 268,904 268,904 270,093 272,667
============================================================================
                        Nov.    Oct.   Sept.    Aug.    July    June     May
                        2007    2007    2007    2007    2007    2007    2007
============================================================================
Second Time Buyers   326,789 331,576 336,111 337,119 337,875 340,143 341,906
Commuter Counties    323,853 325,568 325,813 325,568 329,732 330,712 332,917
3 Bed Semi           303,651 302,536 302,982 301,197 298,520 296,958 301,197
                    --------------------- Index Levels ---------------------
National               131.0   132.5   134.3   134.7   135.1   135.7   136.4
Outside Dublin         132.0   133.1   134.9   134.7   134.9   135.2   136.4
Dublin                 133.8   133.9   134.5   136.2   136.4   139.0   140.9
New Houses             134.3   135.2   137.0   137.0   137.5   138.0   139.0
Existing Houses        126.8   128.4   131.4   134.4   135.0   135.4   135.8
First Time Buyers      132.1   132.2   133.6   135.8   135.8   136.4   137.7
Second Time Buyers     129.7   131.6   133.4   133.8   134.1   135.0   135.7
Commuter Counties      132.2   132.9   133.0   132.9   134.6   135.0   135.9
3 Bed Semi             136.1   135.6   135.8   135.0   133.8   133.1   135.0
============================================================================
NOTE: For the index, base year = 2003.
The commuter counties are Louth, Meath, Kildare and Wicklow.
3 Bed Semi shows the prices for 3 bedroom, semi-detached houses.

A 6% fall YTD.

Some punters had 8/1 on Paddy Power if prices fell 7.5%. They are still in with a fighting chance.

They may just get their wish if the Ashtown development that knocked off upto 100k from apartments is taken as indicative for the sectors that it impacts upon.

It is all a bit strange really, when the ESRI have admitted in their “report” today that house prices have fallen by 15%.

I suppose this won’t be the main news headline thanks to the tribulations of our glorious leader down in Dublin Castle. Good day to release bad news I suppose.

Meanwhile ireland.com see some positives in this…

ireland.com/newspaper/breaki … king63.htm

Proves the old saying - statistics are to an economist what a lamp post is to a drunken man!

House prices falling are taking as a given at this stage , the only interesting point worth commenting on is whether the rate of house price falls is rising or falling.

Actually that is a plain falsehood.

The RATE of fall has been:
YOY -1.9, -2.8, -4.7, -5.9 which is accelerating in my book.
MoM shows the second largest rate of fall on record. Which is hardly the basis for claiming a deceleration.

They have been saying this for a while.
Doesnt this make a mockery of their statistic collection and analysis method ?

Is it because they’re at the mercy of the PTSB valuation experts for this survey?

Perhaps. But really, this is a big deal. Maybe some journalist (I know you’re reading) would like to pick up the phone and ask the ESRI why there appears to be two different conflicting statistics produced by them on the same day. This is more than simply making mischief, many people on this board have long said that the PTSB/ESRI statistics do not appear to represent reality yet they are being presented as the most important guage of house prices and even the ESRI themselves appear to now admit that they are wrong by a factor of 2.

I do have a conflict of interest as I have quite a lot of money gambled at 8 to 1 for a 7.5% house price fall this year. I know I have won the bet, but the statistics may still defeat me :frowning:

Didnt someone on here have a large bet that prices would go up by less than 10% in 2007?

The reality is that house prices are down 15%-20% but it will take a few more months for the “official” numbers to reflect this.

Enjoy your winnings ARW and you certainly can’t be accused of not putting your money where your mouth is.
That -15% YOY ESRI figure from the Irish Times would sound a bit more like what’s really happening out there, might be even a little lower what do the pinsters and particularly Mr A and the other pin EAs think? A swing from mid teens % YOY growth to minus 15% is simply massive.

While we recognise that the ESRI are understating the extent of the fall in house prices in their TSB report (for whatever reason) there is some good information to be gleaned from the data presented in their report.

One thing that caught my eye is the fact that in the past 12 months existing houses have “officially” fallen in value by 8.8% whereas new houses have only fallen in value by 3.9% (see bottom of last page). We are all aware of the methods developers have used to control the market and keep the prices of new developments up (price fixing, stalling on price drops until existing contracts are delivered, free cars, kitchens, etc.). The ‘existing’ housing market is controlled primarily by individual buyers and sellers and is therefore a more accurate indication of house values. This means that according to the ESRI’s TSB report, house prices within the open market system have fallen by 8.8% in the last 12 months.

If we take the ‘existing’ house price data since February '07 (when the crash really began in earnest) and annualise it, it works out at 11.6% which is not too far off the 15% fall mentioned by the ESRI in their other press release. :open_mouth:

Another interesting fact that can be gleaned from these figures is as follows: Assuming that all houses in the survey fall into either the ‘new’ or ‘existing’ category, if:
house prices have fallen by 5.9% nationally,
existing houses have fallen by 8.8% and
new houses have fallen by 3.9%.
This means that 59% of the houses included in this survey ‘sample’ must be new! (:-O)

**For those who are interested (and have nothing better to do :slight_smile: ) , my calculation is based on Inter Cert. algebra and is as follows:

  1. (Proportion of Existing x 8.8%fall) + (Proportion of New x 3.9%fall) = 5.9%
    => 8.8E+3.9N=5.9

  2. E+N=1 => E=1-N

  3. & 2) combined => 8.8*(1-N) +3.9N = 5.9
    => 8.8 - 8.8
    N +3.9*N=5.9
    => 8.8-5.9=(8.8-3.9)N
    => 2.9 = 4.9
    N
    => N = 2.9/4.9 = 0.59 = 59%**

I can’t find that at all, could you by any chance quote where he said it and give a link? The PDF I’m looking at is very long, so a page number might be the thing.

I would concur with that analysis. But was the report divided solely between “new” and “existing” houses? If this is the case, someone in the ESRI has just made a very public boo-boo. I doubt very much that of all the houses for sale recently, 59% of them were new. Perhaps 59% of the PTSB’s loans were for new houses??? Even if this is the case (that 59% of PTSB’s loans were for new houses), it’s misleading and disingenuous of the ESRI to go on and infer that their analysis is reflective of the overall market – the sample is not random, it’s skewed (severely I might add) and takes no account of other factors. What a bunch of amateurs

That is a good question. My question is: what other type of house is there if it’s not ‘new’ and not ‘existing’? The best conclusion I could arrive at from the report is that all houses (nationally) fall into one or other of these categories (like other mutually exclusive catagories e.g. Dublin/outside Dub; FTB/STB etc.) Also pay attention to the way they use bars at the bottoms of the tables to indicate these sections.

The report is not based purely on new TSB mortgages but on valuations on a range of selected properties.Here is an explanation of the methodology used but it is not exactly clear how the sample was chosen.