ESRI out tomorrow or Wednesday - any guesses?

I’m thinking that prices nationally will be very very slightly negative for the first time since 2001.

My Guess : Fall of 0.1% for January (which really relates to a few months back)

With such high inventory the buyers who bought in last few months(and hence had a choice of properties in a buyers market) could have paid slightly higher as they had a better choice of properties. The TSB/ESRI index doesnt discriminate between a well fitted out 3 bed semi with an extension and a smaller 3 bed semi which hasnt been extended and is in a bad state of repair. In slowing markets like that which has existed here in Ireland since last summer prices can still creep up while inventory grows and grows. The index may be negative but I would’nt be suprised if it creeped up or if the figures were slightly massaged.

Unfortunately.

This hombre, he speaks the truth.

I forcast a drop of 0.5 percent.

The interest rate rise in october should be reflected tomorrow

I’m going for a decrease of 0.3% :astonished:

i would half agree. i’ll make a semi-educated guess at somehwere between 0.3-0.5% drop. enough to make people think just that little bit more about this not being a stutter in the market

I would go for a 0.5% drop and I wouldn’t be surprise a little more. The figures are about 3 months out of date and I think the very luckiest of the investors would have gotten out by dropping their prices a little.

I am with bearish on this, even expect a small rise!! Especially if the figures are (Election) seasonally adjusted.

I’ll go for a rise of 17%.

17% Rise of “For Sale” signs I’ll bet ya :wink:

Is this like an office Pool?
What’s the prize?

OK here’s goes…Magic 8-Ball says…
Up 0.75%

:open_mouth:

I wasn’t expecting that.

Isn’t it amazing though. 0.75% would cause a huge sigh of relief for many, yet only a short while ago the same people would have double checked to see if the decimal point was in the wrong place.

-Rd

Well, it’s very rare for a housing bust not to be preceded by a recession.

So given that there’s been no recessions, it’d be surprising to see a very fast turnabout in the market.

If this bust happens, it’ll happen in slo-mo.

Is that true? I’d have thought it would depend on what’s driving the economy. If the housing market is what’s holding up the rest of the economy then I’d expect a turn in the property market to be the catalyst for a general downturn in the economy, rather than the other way around.

-Rd

Where have you been? The market has already had a rapid deceleration.

The ESRI index was showing a 1.4% increase for April 2006 and rapidly dropped to 0.1% for December 2006!!! There’s nothing to stop it going negative.

But until it decelerates to a growth rate of less than zero, it isn’t a turnaround, it’s just a slowdown.

-Rd

Yes but there’s no magic barrier at zero.

Oh absolutely, and I have no doubt that prices will drop, and for many properties the asking prices have already dropped. But I was just responding to this point:

My point was that a fast deceleration is not in itself a turnaround in the market. So rock3r’s comment may still be valid:

During the boom many comentators gave up talking about increases in prices and instead focused on increases and decreases in the rate of increase. Which always drove me mad, as if growth was a given and all we needed to discuss was how fast it would happen.

If the growth rate slows or even stops for a period of time, then that will be the fabled “Soft Landing”. I don’t see it happening that way mind you, I think the drop will be significant and fast, and I’m unfortunately not clever enough to see beyond that what the impact will be on the rest of the economy.

But until actual decreases are posted we’re still in a growing market. Remember many of the price drops we’re seeing are from asking prices. There have been cases where properties have sold for less than similar properties sold for in the past, those are the only actual evidence of drops. Dropping your asking price is merely evidence that expected growth didn’t materialise, it doesn’t mean that no growth materialised.

For all the reasons described above I think the next set of figures will show a slight increase, but that’s just a hunch and I’m almost 50/50 on it.
The only reason I think this is that I’ve been surprised so many times by property in Ireland that now when I’m 50/50 I expect growth.

What I’m far more confident about is that very soon, perhaps the next report after this one, the drop will be significant and noticable.

-Rd

DaltonR,
I think your final line is completely correct. It will simply drop and a be a pretty savage one at that, and we don’t have to wait long to test your very reasonable view on it.

You know there’s a strange gene built into Irish people that helps support property prices. They would rather suffer by living in a house they no longer want than sell it for less than they feel entitled to. They’d rather pay a thousand a month into an “investment” that isn’t growing, than admit they made a bad investment.

Unless interest rates keep going up to the point of forcing people to sell, there are a lot of property owners who will brave it out, hold what they have. Perhaps throw thousands of euro into maintaining ownership rather than admit to themselves they have to sell it.

At the same time there are many FTB’s who have borrowed to the hilt to buy a crap house that they can barely stand living in. I looked at houses myself in Ireland and thank goodness I managed to avoid getting sucked into buying some hole in some of the dodgy estates I looked at. 320K for a house with a burned out car down the road, and a boarded up window in the neighbours front room. Thanks but no thanks.

I have no intention of being the first person in my family to live in a shittier house and shittier neighbourhood than their parents. I don’t know about the rest of you but I’m a strong believer in each generation improving on the last. If I ever have kids that reverse the upward trend I’ll kick their asses. If I or they have to leave the country to move forward then so be it.

The problem for these FTB’s is if equity doesn’t magically materialise in their piece of junk “stepping stone” house, a lot of them are going to find themselves living forever in places they only planned to spend a few years.

How many years of mortgage payments would it take just to buy enough equity to pay the stamp duty on the dream house? And that’s if the house you’re selling just holds it’s value.

Investors who can’t make a return, and families who grow up hating their homes and communities, neither of whom can see a way out.
Welcome to the Irish Dream.

-Rd

If the ESRI is a bad one, it will probably be released Friday after the news cycle. If it is as everyone says, lagged by three months then i’d take a guess of -.2 or .3 %

That being said, I have worked with the ESRI in the past to do some research and I can personally attest (in my personal opinion)* that it is run by monkeys who have no more regard for the truth then a Estate agent, and produce some of the sloppiest data in the business. I would not be in the least surprised if they didn’t massage their results to produce a more ‘favorable’ report to suit the ones paying the bill…

*nah nah, can’t sue me!